- If you are looking for results reporting go HERE.
Less than two weeks until the election and there’s almost enough information to forecast how the presidential vote will go.
When I originally posted this on the 20th, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were the only two states I felt I need more data to predict. After pulling in another series of battleground state polls and reanalyzing trends, some things changed.
Wisconsin and PA are still too close to call, although Wisconsin is leaning towards the president. Michigan has gone from “leans Biden” to toss-up, Nevada has moved left, and Arizona has moved from “leans Biden” to “leans Trump.”
Have no fear, I’ll put my name on the line for all 50 states by October 30th (here it is.)
Turnout will be a factor difficult to estimate for 2020. There are no models or precedent for so many voting absentee. How does enthusiasm affect sticking a ballot in an envelope? How will this change the absentee demographics? Absentee voters used to be mainly military, the elderly, and the informed. Now, in many states, it’s whoever requests a ballot and indicated COVID-19 as the reason.
That puts Trump within 10 points of a victory and makes Wisconsin suddenly very important. If Trump takes Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania – he wins in this scenario.
So if you’re in a brown state (too-close-to-call) or a lightly shaded state (leans now way or the other) consider getting to the polls. A slight turnout push in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could turn this from a tight race into a landslide.
Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are must-wins for Trump if AZ and NV don’t come in. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the keys to a second term. So if you’re in any of those states, get your absentee ballots in, vote early or show up on election day – BUT VOTE.
Finally, here it is – in all its glory: Turnout will be key in this election.
Final 2020 Electoral MAP HERE -> https://www.conservativedailynews.com/2020/10/cdn-2020-electoral-forecast-map-predicts-trump-re-election/
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidential election.
If this map holds up, Joe Biden will need to win all three toss-up states to reach 270 (WI, MI and PA).
I took media/university/polling org polls and examined their likely voter turnout models. I adjusted them using more of a 2016 turnout, with some uncertainty around absentee voting. I then developed trend lines and extrapolated to next week. This is as much art as science, but hey, I only missed acing 2016 by one 10-point state – uhm.. Wisconsin.
If you think I missed a data point somewhere or got something wrong and you’re willing to support your position, the comment area below is all yours. I welcome the criticism.
Why I think the Polls Are Wrong:
The weighting many of them are using is similar to the turnout ratios in 2008. I see this race being more like 2016 where Democrats also fielded an unpopular, caustic and bad-at-campaigning candidate – similar enthusiasm models. The only difference between 2016 and now is absentee voting.
There isn’t enough information to determine if unenthusiastic voters are more likely to request and fill out an absentee ballot than go to the polls. So that’s a guess on my part and theirs. It’s the big unknown in November.
This post will be updated as more data comes in.
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