New polling data prompted a small revision to the forecast. Find the updated prediction HERE.
I promised to put a full 2020 electoral forecast out by Friday, October 30th, and .. well, here it is (well, actually, it’s at the bottom of the page.)
The Analysis
I’ve spent the last two weeks examining polls by digging into their crosstabs, demographics, turnout models and teasing out the voting groups I believe will make a difference for each candidate.
Voting Blocks
Joe Biden’s base, a term to be used lightly, consists mainly of staunch Democrats, the far-left, social justice warriors, union leaders, and anti-Trumpers. That’s not a following, that’s people who are voting for the lesser-of-two-evils from their perspective or that have something to gain. His public appearances are sparsely attended. And, just look at yard signs – no, not the signs in the median, or at the corner. People who put their vote on display in front of their homes aren’t nearly as enthusiastic for Biden as they were for Obama in 2008. Not by a mile.
President Trump has an actual base: people who will stand in line overnight, in the rain, in the cold, to see him. His base consists of pro-military, pro-law enforcement, social conservatives, middle-class manufacturing and energy sector workers, evangelicals, and America-firsters. It’s a collage of people, but it’s the core of America – people who get up and go to work every day to provide for their families while having great respect for the country that makes that possible and those that protect that country and its laws.
By understanding these groups, you only have to look at the positions announced or actions taken by each candidate to understand how skewed media polling is. In some battleground states, media polls have results that are easily 15+ points left of what I, and others, believe the actual vote will be. Trafalgar Group, Susquehanna, Rasmussen and a few others have reliable turnout models built into their polls, most others seem to be fantasizing about a 2008-like turnout in 2020. That’s not how this works, that’s not how it’s going to work.
Turnout Predictions
In 2016, Democrats put up an unpopular, corrupt, old white political elitist with health issues to go against Donald Trump. Trump was, and is, a political outsider that puts Main Street first.
In 2020, Democrats have put up another unpopular, corrupt, old white political elitist with health issues to go against Donald Trump. Which turnout model do you think I’m using in this forecast? Yup, 2016 – with some guessing around how the enthusiasm gap will materialize among absentee/mail-in voters.
The Results
With that said, I am forecasting a solid, but not landslide re-election victory for President Donald Trump and here’s how I think he’ll do on November 3rd (or 4th, or 5th…) If you believe I have it wrong, or right, the comment section below is all yours.
2020 Forecast Map – Biden vs. Trump
New polling data prompted a small revision to the forecast. Find the updated prediction HERE.
Prediction: Trump wins 286 – 252 (only 270 electoral votes are needed to win).
I won’t even try to forecast the popular vote because that’s not how we elect our president – lest California and New York decide all of our futures.
No matter who you’re voting for in 2020, get out and vote. This one is going to be one for the history books.
- Originally posted October 30, 2020
- Updated Nov. 1, 2020, for syntax
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Rich, Thanks for the analysis. I think President Trump may win Pennsylvania and Nevada as well.
Do you think Republicans will at least close the gap in the US House, or possibly win it outright?
I will tell you right now, you are in for a big surprise. The only repeat of 2016 will be the win, the difference will be in the crushing response, overwhelming. The left gave us 4 full years to look behind the mask and see what they really looked like. We heard you. We’ll be voting in a couple of days. You’re going to see America this time, all of it. The left is going to get shown the door, all of it.
Shawn,
I had PA and NV as toss-ups as late as Thursday night. Earlier, I has NV as leaning Trump. But, the trendline hasn’t gone that way in Grand Canyon land. I only have Biden ahead by 1.5 points so it wouldn’t take a huge shift to put NV in his camp.
Pennsylvania is showing much bluer than NV. That’s probably why Trump is there holding four rallies today (Saturday.) Maybe that will turn the tide. I’ll need new data to support that.
I don’t have a feel on the House of Representatives right now as it is tough to predict. Those aren’t statewide elections and many districts are died-in-the-wool.
There could be some down-ballot effect if Trump does well Tuesday. I think that’s what will make the difference. If Trump wins, Republicans will likely retake the House and hold the Senate.
Does this analysis take into account the recent Rasmussen National Daily Black Likely Voter poll (Oct 29), which shows 31 percent of likely Black voters opting for Trump/Pence? This is almost 5x his estimated percentage from 2016. Also his support from Hispanics and Asians has increased as well.
In a fair election, Trump would win 320+, but with the last minute shenanigans happening in PA and other states (no signature verification, no postmark required, up to 9 days post election) it’s obvious to anyone with a brain that they plan to mass produce ballots after election night. This is my biggest fear and is the only way the Dem’s can win…
Yes. Otherwise, MI would have been leaning Biden. It’s not enough to change any of the deep blue states like IL, NY or CA.
I am going with a 340 plus total. Way too many hidden Trumpis Maximus voters out there. Look at the Butler PA rally last night… Unreal.
I am going into Biding… Oops Hiding