First, let’s give Hillary some good news while she recovers from whatever concocted ailment she allegedly has now. Massachusetts still loves her .. a lot. A new WBUR/MassINC poll puts her ahead of Trump by 26 points. No surprise there – that state is pretty much occupied territory at this point.
The rest of the news is grim for the ailing Democrat’s campaign.
CNN/ORC released a set of polls Wednesday that show that whether this is a two-way or four-way race, Clinton trails Donald by 3-4 points in Florida and 4-5 points in Ohio – both states were showing leanings towards the pneumonia-infected former Secretary of State in prior polls.
Of course, one poll is just one poll – unless Bloomberg releases an Ohio poll that shows exactly the same results. The Bloomberg survey showed respondents favoring Trump over Clinton by a 5 point margin.
Maine is no longer a Democrat safe-state according to a new Colby College/Survey USA poll. Trump has a firm hold on Maine’s congressional 2nd district (worth 1 electoral vote), and has turned the rest of the state into *gasp* a toss-up. Really? How did Clinton’s lead in Maine collapse so suddenly (see what I did there?) In this survey, Trump took a 10 point lead over Hillary in CD2 and pulled Clinton to within the margin of error among respondents. That’s just sick!
Colorado is liking them some Hillary a lot less than they used to. While we haven’t been able to independently verify the survey yet, the results are too interesting to simply ignore. The Denver Post reported today that a newly released Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump with a 2-point edge over Clinton in the centennial state. Just a month ago, polls gave the overheating Hillary double-digit leads over her healthier opponent, but Donald shouldn’t take that to mean it’s all about him…
Republican pollster David Flaherty at Magellan Strategies conducted a Aug. 29-31 poll that showed Clinton with a 41 percent to 36 percent lead among likely voters in a four-way race, just outside the 4.4 percentage point margin of error.
But he cautions against Trump’s camp getting too optimistic. “Trump is not gaining in momentum or support. Gary Johnson is,” he said, referring to the Libertarian candidate for president, who is getting significant support in Colorado.
Oh… I can’t wait to pen the article on a “Johnson factor” that doesn’t mention Bill Clinton or Anthony Weiner – what could go wrong?
Nevada is continuing to trend towards Trump as he takes a 2-point lead over Hillary reversing Hillary’s 2 point lead at the beginning of August. Still in the margin of error so we’ll leave Nevada a toss-up, but if the trend continues.. Clinton may just get all the rest she needs.
We might as well mention all the polls. South Carolina has never been anything but a Trump state and that trend continues as a new Trafalgar Group poll put Donald over Hillary by 15. Kansas is +12 to Trump as expected.
Something of note on these polls. These are the first polls to be released where the survey included responses after Clinton’s ‘medical episode’ on September 11th and the ensuing. ham-handed cover-up that no thinking human being could possibly believe.
Taking the polls above into consideration there are a few changes in our electoral analysis:
- Maine goes toss-up (-3 Hillary)
- Maine CD2 goes likely GOP (no change)
- We’ll watch Nevada closely to see if it should be moved to leaning GOP
- Colorado goes toss-up as long as Johnson stays in the race
Oh my word .. things are looking unsteady for the Democrat nominee…
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