The “Fire Obama” Jobs Numbers
Just in case anyone hasn’t noticed, on Nov. 6th, 2012 Americans will head to the polls to cast their votes in the presidential elections. The choice will be between the winner of the Republican nomination process, and incumbent President Barack Obama. The overwhelming topic that will drive the election is jobs and the economy. Without a stable, vibrant work force, the economy stumbles and almost everyone feels some kind of household budgetary pain. Federal revenues decline, the national debt increases to unsustainable levels, and the dollar just doesn’t stretch far enough for a major portion of America’s population. Most economists agree that to maintain our economy, the workforce needs to add about 121,000 new workers per month just to keep up with the population growth, as outlined here.
Zero Hedge explains the current budgetary gimmickry being used today to mask the underlying truths in the real unemployment numbers as follows: “As the chart below shows, according to the traditionally optimistic Congressional Budget Office, the US has to create 121,000 jobs per month in 2011 just to keep pace with population growth. This number declines modestly over the next several years, but still averages 106,000 per month over the next 5 years. And the kicker is that this number does not account for the 3 million people who are not currently in the workforce that the CBO defines as Potential Workforce. Assuming the inflow of this portion of the population into the workforce over the next three years, it adds an additional 83,000 people that have to be incorporated in the work force. This means that in 2011, in the “best” case scenario, the monthly NFP number has to be over 200,000 before the unemployment rate is reduced by even one basis point excluding the impact of the BLS’ favorite trick of fudging the labor force participation rate, which we have discussed extensively in the past.”
After the releasing of the most recent U.S. unemployment statistics, where the government numbers crunchers, at the behest of the Obama administration reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%, as John Ransom explains that there are currently 4.4 million workers (as opposed to the 3 million total of less workers stated above, which was at the start of 2011) that have been taken out of the workforce completely, thus lowering the U/E rate by shrinking the workforce. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist or, in this case a Harvard grad ( as in BHO) to understand that a smaller workforce means less GDP, less federal revenues and less prosperity for Americans in general.
Ransom explains the U/E rate gimmickry as follows: “They are missing in part because the BLS no longer counts people who have been unemployed for so long that they have stopped looking for work. Since 1994 the BLS has discontinued the practice of counting the “long-term discouraged workers” from the workforce. If a worker stops looking for work after a period of time, they are no longer counted in the workforce. That means that government has created a system whereby the longer a jobs recession continues, the less reliable the unemployment numbers become- to the advantage of the government.”
Fast forward to last weeks jobs report that showed 399,000 initial new unemployment claims were filed, which tend to be revised upward after the media reports on the initial number, and we see just how bogus the “good news claims” actually were. The U.S. workforce has shrunk immensely under Barack Obama, leading to an explosion of national debt that frankly, most uninformed Americans choose to ignore. Do Americans really want four more years of standing on the edge of the Greek-style debt cliff, waiting for the final plunge? Four more years of an administration that blocks our domestic energy production while gasoline and heating prices are at historically high and “skyrocketing” prices? Four more years of a government proven to be so desperate for reelection that they are promoting vote fraud by blocking State’s Voter ID laws? Obama has to run his reelection campaign on everything except his actual record, which he wants Americans to ignore while giving him four more years of destroying the American economy. November is coming. Vote Republican, no matter who the nominee is in 2012. When it comes to Obama, the economy and job creation, we have to look no further than at Obama’s supposed jobs plan here for some harsh truths.