New polling data prompted a small revision to the forecast. Find the updated prediction HERE.
I promised to put a full 2020 electoral forecast out by Friday, October 30th, and .. well, here it is (well, actually, it’s at the bottom of the page.)
I’ve spent the last two weeks examining polls by digging into their crosstabs, demographics, turnout models and teasing out the voting groups I believe will make a difference for each candidate.
Joe Biden’s base, a term to be used lightly, consists mainly of staunch Democrats, the far-left, social justice warriors, union leaders, and anti-Trumpers. That’s not a following, that’s people who are voting for the lesser-of-two-evils from their perspective or that have something to gain. His public appearances are sparsely attended. And, just look at yard signs – no, not the signs in the median, or at the corner. People who put their vote on display in front of their homes aren’t nearly as enthusiastic for Biden as they were for Obama in 2008. Not by a mile.
President Trump has an actual base: people who will stand in line overnight, in the rain, in the cold, to see him. His base consists of pro-military, pro-law enforcement, social conservatives, middle-class manufacturing and energy sector workers, evangelicals, and America-firsters. It’s a collage of people, but it’s the core of America – people who get up and go to work every day to provide for their families while having great respect for the country that makes that possible and those that protect that country and its laws.
By understanding these groups, you only have to look at the positions announced or actions taken by each candidate to understand how skewed media polling is. In some battleground states, media polls have results that are easily 15+ points left of what I, and others, believe the actual vote will be. Trafalgar Group, Susquehanna, Rasmussen and a few others have reliable turnout models built into their polls, most others seem to be fantasizing about a 2008-like turnout in 2020. That’s not how this works, that’s not how it’s going to work.
In 2016, Democrats put up an unpopular, corrupt, old white political elitist with health issues to go against Donald Trump. Trump was, and is, a political outsider that puts Main Street first.
In 2020, Democrats have put up another unpopular, corrupt, old white political elitist with health issues to go against Donald Trump. Which turnout model do you think I’m using in this forecast? Yup, 2016 – with some guessing around how the enthusiasm gap will materialize among absentee/mail-in voters.
With that said, I am forecasting a solid, but not landslide re-election victory for President Donald Trump and here’s how I think he’ll do on November 3rd (or 4th, or 5th…) If you believe I have it wrong, or right, the comment section below is all yours.
New polling data prompted a small revision to the forecast. Find the updated prediction HERE.
Prediction: Trump wins 286 – 252 (only 270 electoral votes are needed to win).
I won’t even try to forecast the popular vote because that’s not how we elect our president – lest California and New York decide all of our futures.
No matter who you’re voting for in 2020, get out and vote. This one is going to be one for the history books.
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