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Home prices continue to rise

Data released today for March 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.

“The home price increases continue with the National Index rising at 6.5% per year,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Seattle continues to report the fastest rising prices at 13% per year, double the National Index pace. While Seattle has been the city with the largest gains for 19 months, the ranking among other cities varies. Las Vegas and San Francisco saw the second and third largest annual gains of 12.4% and 11.3%. A year ago, they ranked 10th and 16th. Any doubts that real, or inflation-adjusted, home prices are climbing rapidly are eliminated by considering Chicago; the city reported the lowest 12-month gain among all cities in the index of 2.8%, almost a percentage point ahead of the inflation rate.

“Looking across various national statistics on sales of new or existing homes, permits for new construction, and financing terms, two figures that stand out are rapidly rising home prices and low inventories of existing homes for sale. Months-supply, which combines inventory levels and sales, is currently at 3.8 months, lower than the levels of the 1990s, before the housing boom and bust. Until inventories increase faster than sales, or the economy slows significantly, home prices are likely to continue rising. Compared to the price gains of the last boom in the early 2000s, things are calmer today. Gains in the National Index peaked at 14.5% in September 2005, more quickly than Seattle is rising now.”

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.5% annual gain in March, the same as the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.5%, up from 6.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.8% year-over-year gain, no change from the previous month.

SeattleLas Vegas, and San Francisco continue to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In March, Seattle led the way with a 13.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 12.4% increase and San Francisco with an 11.3% increase. Twelve of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending March 2018 versus the year ending February 2018.

The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Seattle and Las Vegas.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

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Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.8% in March. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase in March. The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted 0.4% and 0.5% month-over-month increases, respectively. All 20 cities reported increases in March before seasonal adjustment, while 19 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From Peak (%)

Level

From Trough (%)

From Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

198.94

48.5%

7.8%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

208.62

55.6%

1.0%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

222.52

51.9%

-1.7%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for March 2018. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

March 2018

March/February

February/January

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

143.19

0.8%

0.5%

6.2%

Boston

209.29

1.2%

0.8%

5.8%

Charlotte

154.63

1.0%

0.8%

6.2%

Chicago

140.18

1.1%

0.0%

2.8%

Cleveland

118.20

0.3%

0.5%

4.6%

Dallas

183.52

0.7%

0.6%

5.8%

Denver

210.84

1.4%

1.2%

8.6%

Detroit

120.02

1.1%

1.1%

7.9%

Las Vegas

175.89

1.5%

1.0%

12.4%

Los Angeles

278.27

0.9%

1.0%

8.1%

Miami

232.09

0.7%

0.6%

5.0%

Minneapolis

166.31

1.7%

0.4%

6.1%

New York

196.97

0.1%

0.4%

5.2%

Phoenix

177.49

0.9%

0.9%

6.8%

Portland

227.45

1.0%

0.4%

6.7%

San Diego

253.44

1.0%

1.1%

7.7%

San Francisco

261.80

2.1%

1.0%

11.3%

Seattle

245.00

2.8%

1.7%

13.0%

Tampa

205.94

0.6%

0.3%

7.5%

Washington

223.60

1.1%

0.4%

3.0%

Composite-10

222.52

0.9%

0.7%

6.5%

Composite-20

208.62

1.0%

0.7%

6.8%

U.S. National

198.94

0.8%

0.4%

6.5%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through March 2018

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

March/February Change (%)

February/January Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

0.8%

0.3%

0.5%

0.5%

Boston

1.2%

0.8%

0.8%

1.1%

Charlotte

1.0%

0.5%

0.8%

0.8%

Chicago

1.1%

0.3%

0.0%

0.6%

Cleveland

0.3%

-0.2%

0.5%

1.8%

Dallas

0.7%

0.2%

0.6%

0.8%

Denver

1.4%

0.8%

1.2%

1.2%

Detroit

1.1%

0.8%

1.1%

1.4%

Las Vegas

1.5%

1.3%

1.0%

1.3%

Los Angeles

0.9%

0.7%

1.0%

1.0%

Miami

0.7%

0.5%

0.6%

0.8%

Minneapolis

1.7%

1.3%

0.4%

0.9%

New York

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

0.8%

Phoenix

0.9%

1.0%

0.9%

1.0%

Portland

1.0%

0.6%

0.4%

0.5%

San Diego

1.0%

0.5%

1.1%

0.9%

San Francisco

2.1%

0.8%

1.0%

0.9%

Seattle

2.8%

1.3%

1.7%

1.5%

Tampa

0.6%

0.5%

0.3%

0.7%

Washington

1.1%

0.6%

0.4%

0.5%

Composite-10

0.9%

0.4%

0.7%

0.8%

Composite-20

1.0%

0.5%

0.7%

0.8%

U.S. National

0.8%

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through March 2018

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About Carl Fox

Carl Fox is the senior money and finance writer for Conservative Daily News. Follow him in the "Money & The Economy" section at CDN and see his posts on the "Junior Economists" Facebook page.
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