They couldn’t help themselves. The mainstream media published column after column saying that Trump’s promise for GDP growth north of 3% was impossible because, after all, Obama hadn’t been able to do it.
LA Times: If Trump thinks he can get more than 3% economic growth, he’s dreaming 5/19/17
Then there are the nonpolitical observers, such as bond guru Bill Gross, who says: “High rates of growth, and the productivity that drives it, are likely distant memories from a bygone era.” And academic economists such as Northwestern’s Robert J. Gordon, who states bluntly in his pessimistic book “The Rise and Fall of American Growth” that U.S. GDP’s best years are behind it.
“… U.S. GDP’s best years are behind it.” Wow… just wow.
Business Insider: The clearest part of Trump’s economic plan is also the most delusional part 2/27/17
Three percent GDP growth. Three percent GDP growth. Three percent GDP growth.
Get it stamped on your brain. Get it tattooed somewhere. Have some T-shirts made, because this is team Trump’s goal for the economy. In a time of extreme policy confusion, 3% GDP growth is one of the only firm targets we have to hang onto.
The problem is that in interview after interview, Donald Trump and his surrogates have demonstrated that they have no idea how to get there.
That last line is so much funnier now than they ever could have imagined when they wrote it.
President Trump’s first budget, which he and his budget director claimed would erase the federal deficit within 10 years, would do no such thing, the Congressional Budget Office concludes in a new analysis.
The cuts in the president’s budget would, the CBO finds, dramatically reduce the deficit, by about $4.2 trillion over 10 years (more than the $2.4 trillion in deficit reduction in Obama’s final budget). But even with those cuts, the total deficit would only be reduced by one-third rather than wiped out completely, as the Trump administration had claimed.
The CBO’s deficit reduction estimate is so much lower because the White House claimed its budget would lead to 3 percent economic growth, dramatically increasing tax revenue and closing the gap between what the government brings in and what it spends. But the CBO found that Trump’s budget would only mildly improve economic growth. The average economic growth rate would rise by 0.1 percentage points per year, from about 1.8 percent to 1.9 percent.
Whoops. Looks like both Vox and the CBO got it wrong. Remember, the CBO uses static analysis, the flawed economic model that simulates an economy that doesn’t respond to change. We’ve already seen two 3% quarters and expect a 3rd. One more 3%+ period and the economy has achieved that which the CBO couldn’t see. Everything they’ve estimated so far on the tax plan and spending bills is equally flawed. Until the CBO adopts dynamic scoring/analysis they will forever be the laughing stock of the economic community.
CNBC: Economists don’t buy Trump’s 3 percent GDP growth target (9/25/17)
Economists didn’t project 3% in 2017 or 2018 according to this CNBC piece. While Q117 came in at 1.2%, that is the only quarter when the country was still operating under the assumptions, regulations and policies of a Democratic party White House. GDP growth under full Trump control came in at 3.0, 3.3 and a projected 3.2% for the fourth quarter. That 1.2% really looks sucky against those numbers, and economists missed the coming Trump bump too:
According to the survey from the National Association for Business Economics, most of those polled expect the growth of U.S. gross domestic product to level off next year at an annual pace of about 2.3 percent.
The stories are plentiful – and dead wrong. But what about the stories predicting major economic growth from former Present Obama’s policies on the economy? Hint: in Obama’s last year in office, U.S. GDP growth was an uninspiring 1.5% and decreasing. Had America not changed course and elected a pro-business president, it might have gone back into recession.
Obama tried Cash for clunkers, the GM buyout, and of course Porkulus (ARRA) which even got its own song.
But at the end, Obama was the first president to have failed to reach 3% annual GDP in any year of his presidency – EVER.
An interesting note is this is the second time that a Republican president pushing Conservative policies rescued the American economy from the clutches of a flailing Democrat. And no, we don’t miss former President Carter either.