Tag Archives: jobs report

Sandy not to blame for dismal jobs report

unemployment-image

The AP reported today that this week’s terrible unemployment numbers were due to fallout from Sandy – the storm that hit the Northeast last week. On its face, the excuse holds merit. When digging into the data, it looks like AP over-interpreted a footnote thereby giving the Administration a pass on an awful report.

The Labor Department said applications increased by 78,000 because a large number of applications were filed in states damaged by the storm. People can claim unemployment benefits if their workplaces close and they don’t get paid.

First to note in the report is that New York, the most populous state hit by the storm, saw its weekly figures drop by more than 2,200 claims. The reason for fewer claims given was that due to power outages caused by the Hurricane, the State’s systems were unable to take claims from claimants. So while the storm may have caused in increase in unemployment in New York, it was not figured into the 78,000 increase due.

Next we find that the state with the largest increase in claims, Pennsylvania, did not list the storm as the reason. Only Connecticut and New Jersey pointed at Sandy for the reason they saw increased claims and of the total 78,000 increase, those two states were less than a tenth of the claims when added together.

What may have been mere oversight looks even more like white washing when you see one of the largest increases in joblessness being the swing state of Ohio. Suddenly, just after the election, Ohio reports more than 6,400 job losses in the .. wait for it.. automobile manufacturing industries . Oddly, the November 1 report just before the election showed a decrease in manufacturing layoffs in Ohio – a trend outlier when looked at broadly:

– October 25th report: Ohio sees increase of 1,936 claims due to layoff in the transportation and manufacturing industries

– November 1st report: Ohio reduces claims by 1,214 due to fewer layoffs in manufacturing

– November 8th: Ohio not mentioned

– November 15th: Ohio loses more than 6,400 jobs specifically in the auto manufacturing industry

Disregarding the strange blame, the report offers other unpleasant news: Year-over-year initial claims (seasonally adjusted) have risen by a staggering 47,000 claims. Last year at this time, only 392,000 initial claims for jobless benefits were filed, while this month more than 439,000 were given unemployment assistance.

WEEK ENDING Advance Nov. 10 Nov. 3 Change Oct. 27 Prior Year1

Initial Claims (SA) 439,000 361,000 +78,000 363,000 392,000
Initial Claims (NSA) 466,348 361,800 +104,548 339,917 363,016

 

Questionable jobs report: Unemployment hits 7.8% in September “Unexpectedly”

September jobs report - chart1

Despite slowing job growth, strangely, the key unemployment rate fell .3% to 7.8% due to an unexpected upward 86,000 job revision by the Department of Labor.

Secretary Solis spent the morning defending the rosy unemployment rate that is based on questionable revisions. Upwardly revising public sector employment  by tens of thousands of jobs in the report out just after her boss’s dismal performance in the first presidential debate.

Solis even tried to suggest that the upward revisions were in private sector jobs, which would indicate a strengthening jobs picture, but was rebutted by her own department’s statistics.

This is not the first report full of questionable statistics. As John Nolte at Big Government reported:

Finally, this is the second hinky looking report/revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in as many months. Just days ago, 400,000 jobs were “discovered“–almost the exact number Obama needed to have a record of creating more jobs on his watch than were lost.Payroll Survey shows slowing jobs growth

The question remains how many more hidden jobs will be found in the final report before the election due out on November 2nd.

Jobs Report Overview

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report released today showed that only 114,000 new jobs were created – a slowing from the 2012 average of 147,000 jobs per month and 153,000 jobs per month in 2011. The report offers little explanation for the statistical drop considering the lack of new jobs in September.

Underemployment, or those taking part-time or underpaying jobs due to economic conditions, rose from 8.0 million to 8.6 million.

The number of workers looking for work in the last 12 months, but unable to find it was unchanged from a year ago at 2.5 million.

The long-term unemployed numbers were unchanged with 4.8 million job-seekers unable to find work for 27 or more weeks. This distressing number makes up 40.1% of all unemployed persons.

Health care lead the way with 44,000 new jobs in September. Transportation and warehousing followed with 17,000 new jobs while the financial sector added 13,000.

Manufacturing led the way in job losses with 16,000 jobs being erased which leaves the sector with flat hiring since April.

Oddity in the Household Survey shows drastic jump in employment

The household survey respondents indicate that 873,000 new jobs were found in September. Since the civilian labor force grew only 418,000, that means 52% of all job gains were in the public sector. The economy needs strong private sector growth to heal.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics own site:

The payroll survey provides a highly reliable gauge of monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment. The household survey provides a broader picture of employment including agriculture and the self-employed

The level of disparity between the household and payroll surveys is irregular, but not inexplicable. The loose definition of employment in the household survey is likely the reason. While the payroll survey only counts those with paying jobs, the household survey counts “self employed, unpaid family workers, agriculture and related workers, private household workers, and workers absent without pay.”[1]

Another reason for the oddity could be the dramatic difference in sampling errors. While the payroll survey covers businesses that account for about one-third of all employment, the household survey only covers 60,000 households which is an infinitesimally-small sample of all households in the nation.

While the employment survey needs a change of approximately 90,000 jobs to show statistical improvement, the household survey requires a month-over-month change of 436,000 jobs. Equivalence would therefore be expected if the payroll survey had increased by 180,000 jobs for parity.

An assumption would be that the large increase in the housing survey was due to low-quality jobs in agriculture and the non-paying family member sectors – hardly a reason to celebrate.

Sources:
[1] Employment from the BLS household and payroll surveys – http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf

Media Ignores Massive TARP Fraud and Theft

For Americans who still choose to get their news from the mainstream media corporations at ABC, NBC, and CBS, the news that 77% of the TARP bailout money has been repaid to the taxpayer seems like a marvelous revelation. Considering that that is about all the public has been told concerning the TARP taxpayer cash giveaway sweepstakes, the following information will come as quite a shocker. From the Special Inspector General for TARP (SIGTARP) report, we see just how the media is failing this country today: Keep in mind that this is the Quarterly Report to Congress dated Jan. 26, 2012. You may access the complete report at sigtarp.gov

According to the Jan 2012 SIGTARP report:

U.S. Taxpayers are stilled owed approximately $133 billion dollars.

As of the end of 2011, the Treasury has written off $4.2 billion and realized  losses of $7.8 billion, of which the U.S. taxpayer will never see a penny of repayment, with more losses expected in the future.

While the TARP bailouts  were enacted in 2008, TARP bailouts will in fact, continue through the year 2017. Treasury has been authorized to spend another  $51 billion tax dollars on TARP supported housing programs and “certain securities markets.”

As of Jan. 2012, there were “criminal convictions of 31 defendants, of whom 22 have been sentenced to prison, a reported total ofcriminal actions against 61 individuals, including 45 senior officers (CEOs, owners, founders, or senior executives) of their organizations,and another 18 civil cases naming…corporate or other legal entities as defendants.

Look who still owes the taxpayer a whopping $75 billion dollars according to the latest SIGTARP report: AIG still owes $50 billion while GM still owes $25 billion dollars. Ally Financial also still owes the U.S taxpayers another $12 billion dollars.

The U.S. Treasury also handed out TARP “loans” and then took stock as a form of payment. The G.M. stock held by the Treasury ( thus the taxpayers) was currently trading at $24.72 on Thursday of last week. The break even price needed to recover the taxpayers cost of that part of the G.M. Bailout? $53.98 a share, or more than double it’s current value! 

The bottom line: The taxpayers have lost tens of billions of TARP dollars already through fraud and other criminal methods of theft, and there is a lot more to come. Check out the above-linked SIGTARP report. While the media refuses to report on this massive taxpayer fraud, there are some names of those already convicted right in that report. AIG and the “Largest Automaker in the world” G.M. as Obama and company like to brag about still owes the taxpayer $25 billion dollars, and AIG owes them double that! One last fact: TARP was passed in 2008, when Nancy Pelosi was running the U.S. House of Representatives and Harry Reid was running the U.S. Senate. Yes they are both Liberal Democrats.

Other fast facts about TARP from the NY Times:

The final tally in the House was 263 to 171, with 91 Republicans joining 172 Democrats in favor. That was a wider bipartisan majority than vote-counters in both parties had expected,  completing a remarkable turnabout from Monday, when the House defeated an earlier version of the bill by 228 to 205.

In the end, 33 [ Senate] Democrats and 24 Republicans who had voted no on Monday switched sides on Friday to support the plan. Both Mr. Obama and his Republican rival, Senator John McCain, voted for the measure when the Senate approved it on Wednesday, and both hailed Friday’s outcome.

The financial markets, however, were not enthusiastic. Already weighed down by another round of bleak economic data, including a report showing that 159,000 jobs were lost in September. (emphasis added)  [While current President Barack Obama constantly states that the U.S was bleeding 700,000 jobs a month when he took office, in late 2008 it was in fact, 159,000 jobs lost for the entire month of September, 2008, just before he took office. Just last week, according to CNN Money,  we lost another 377,000 jobs!]