Election 2020: Odds, Probability & Predictions
As impeachment odds remain firmly favored in the ’Yes’ department, President Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election are still flat, +120 at outlets like YouWager. He leads the pack as the odds on favorite to win it all once again.
If you followed the ods lats time around, Trump hit a point where he became the favorite to win, however, the polls and the rest of the world adamantly refused to accept the possibility that he might take the White House. So why is this? Why did the odds predict that he’d win when supposedly, the majority of the United States was saying that Hillary would win.
Here is the simple answer. Polls have no consequences. People can say whatever they want when it’s just their opinion being spoken. Let’s use the last election as an example. When polling, you could ask someone, do you think Hillary is going to win? Chances are they would state something like, “Of course, 100 percent. No doubt in my mind. There is no way she is losing to an inexperienced, non-politician, reality TV host.” Now, if you asked that same person, are you so sure that you are willing to run to your bank, pull out a thousand dollars cash and bet your hard-earned money on that statement? Chances are, they would stop and think about it before saying, you know, I think Hillary will win, but I’m not willing to risk losing money on it. Suddenly, they are second-guessing that strong political opinion, because you have turned it into a market instead of a poll.
Ok. So we already know that there is no real competition for the Republican Primary – It could get weird if Trump is, in fact, impeached. But that is a bridge to be crossed when we get there.
So let’s look at how this may impact the Democratic Primary.
Joe Biden is on average leading the polls by +3 to +17 depending on where you look. Sure Elizabeth Warren is ahead in some smaller, biased, campus polls. But by and large, Joe Biden is winning. But what does the market say? Well, It says that Joe Biden only has a 12.5% chance of winning the election, whereas Elizabeth Warren is riding a 30.8% probability. Elizabeth Warren’s odds are +225 (a hair more than 2 to 1) not too far behind those of Donald Trump at +120. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is back at +700 (or 7 to 1). These odds imply that Elizabeth Warren is almost three times more likely to win than Biden. But why? Again, we are looking at markets instead of polls.
That said, one reason I can give you that is getting over-looked by many as to why Warren is going to beat Biden is secondary support. 66% of likely voters in the Democratic party recently stated that they would support another candidate if their candidate did not make the cut. Can you guess whose name came up the most within this 66%? Warren. So when Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and even Bernie Sanders withdraw, their voters are much more likely to swing over to Warren’s camp than Biden’s. So as the race narrows, we will see Elizabeth Warren over-take Joe Biden in the polls by a healthy amount.
From that point on, it’s anyone’s game. But mark my words. The two primary candidates for the President of the United States will be Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren.