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Trump Effect: Economic activity continues meteoric rise

  • Business Activity Index at 63.9%
  • New Orders Index at 63.2%
  • Employment Index at 53.6%

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 101st consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 59.1 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the May reading of 58.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 63.9 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than the May reading of 61.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 107th consecutive month, at a faster rate in June. The New Orders Index registered 63.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the reading of 60.5 percent in May. The Employment Index decreased 0.5 percentage point in June to 53.6 percent from the May reading of 54.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased by 3.6 percentage points from the May reading of 64.3 percent to 60.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in June for the 28th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. Respondents continue to be optimistic about business conditions and the overall economy. There is a continuing concern relating to tariffs, capacity constraints and delivery.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Accommodation & Food Services. The only industry reporting a decrease is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Tariffs, freight [issues] and labor shortages continue to have an inflationary influence on costs.” (Construction)
  • “Positive outlook — business activity on the uptick.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Shortage of IV solutions and drugs continues to be an issue.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Crude prices are causing concern, as it is a driver in newsprint inks. Tariffs on paper and aluminum are causing apprehension about future pricing. Suppliers are posturing and threatening price increases, and we are doing our best to reject increases.” (Information)
  • “Trade tariffs are creating price uncertainty.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Domestically, we are still experiencing a shortage of transportation providers that is getting worse each month when retiring drivers or drivers moving into other opportunities are not being replaced. Internationally, there is a shortage of flat racks [that] has caused late shipments. The tariffs on steel and aluminum have also had some negative effects on our supply of material, but we have applied for exemptions.” (Other Services)
  • “Oil price stabilization has led to increased hiring in some sectors of the industry, as well as a small increase in major capital projects for offshore drilling companies. Oil-field services hiring continues to be strong, as does hiring and capital spending in the petrochemical and downstream sectors of the industry.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Commodity prices [are] increasing due to demand and transportation costs.” (Public Administration)
  • “Sales have remained strong and are continuing to increase. Currently, we are on pace for a top-line record. The bottom line is more flat, as we have been fighting commodity cost increases and exchange-rate variances throughout the first half of 2018.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Wire sales improve as contractors ramp up with the rise in copper. We’re seeing ongoing price increases in nearly all commodities due to higher freight expenses by manufacturers and shortage of truck drivers.” (Wholesale Trade)

 

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
JUNE 2018

Index

Non-Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Series
Index
Jun

Series
Index
May

Percent
Point
Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend**
(Months)

Series
Index
Jun

Series
Index
May

Percent
Point
Change

NMI®/PMI®

59.1

58.6

+0.5

Growing

Faster

101

60.2

58.7

+1.5

Business Activity/Production

63.9

61.3

+2.6

Growing

Faster

107

62.3

61.5

+0.8

New Orders

63.2

60.5

+2.7

Growing

Faster

89

63.5

63.7

-0.2

Employment

53.6

54.1

-0.5

Growing

Slower

52

56.0

56.3

-0.3

Supplier Deliveries

55.5

58.5

-3.0

Slowing

Slower

30

68.2

62.0

+6.2

Inventories

53.5

57.5

-4.0

Growing

Slower

5

50.8

50.2

+0.6

Prices

60.7

64.3

-3.6

Increasing

Slower

28

76.8

79.5

-2.7

Backlog of Orders

56.5

60.5

-4.0

Growing

Slower

6

60.1

63.5

-3.4

New Export Orders

60.5

57.5

+3.0

Growing

Faster

17

56.3

55.6

+0.7

Imports

51.5

54.0

-2.5

Growing

Slower

4

59.0

54.1

+4.9

Inventory Sentiment

57.5

61.0

-3.5

Too High

Slower

253

N/A

N/A

N/A

Customers’ Inventories

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

39.7

39.6

+0.1

Overall Economy
Non-Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Faster

106

Growing

Faster

101

*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.

**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (3); Corrugated Boxes (3); Diesel (3); Fuel (3); Fuel Surcharges; Lumber Products; Metal Products; Oil and Lubricants; Paper (2); Paper Products (2); Rebar; Software Maintenance and Support; Steel (3); and Steel Products (9).

Commodities Down in Price
Gasoline; and Soy Products.

Commodities in Short Supply
Construction Subcontractors (6); IV Solutions; Labor — Construction (27); Labor — Temporary; Needles; Professional Services; and Trucking Services.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

READ:  UN Makes Buying ‘Made in the USA’ As Hard As It Can Get

JUNE 2018 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI®
In June, the NMI® registered 59.1 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 58.6 percent registered in May, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 101st consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI® above 49 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the June NMI® indicates growth for the 106th consecutive month in the overall economy and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 101st consecutive month. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the NMI® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI® for June (59.1 percent) corresponds to a 3.7 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

NMI® HISTORY

Month

NMI®

Month

NMI®

Jun 2018

59.1

Dec 2017

56.0

May 2018

58.6

Nov 2017

57.3

Apr 2018

56.8

Oct 2017

59.8

Mar 2018

58.8

Sep 2017

59.4

Feb 2018

59.5

Aug 2017

55.2

Jan 2018

59.9

Jul 2017

54.3

Average for 12 months – 57.9
High – 59.9
Low – 54.3

Business Activity
ISM®‘s Business Activity Index registered 63.9 percent in June, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the May reading of 61.3 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 107th consecutive month. Sixteen industries reported increased business activity, and one industry reported decreased activity for the month of June. Comments from respondents include: “It is seasonally normal for activity to increase this time of year, but the activity is larger than anticipated” and “Global demand for our products is increasing.”

The 16 industries reporting growth of business activity in June — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information. The only industry reporting a decrease in business activity in June is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

Business Activity

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2018

40

49

11

63.9

May 2018

35

55

10

61.3

Apr 2018

37

54

9

59.1

Mar 2018

35

55

10

60.6

New Orders
ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 63.2 percent, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the May reading of 60.5 percent. June represents growth in new orders for the 89th consecutive month, at a faster rate compared with May. Comments from respondents include: “We are nearing the end of the quarter, so people are trying to lock in deals” and “Continue to receive new sales orders for higher units overall.”

The 17 industries reporting growth of new orders in June — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Construction; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. No industry reported a decrease in new orders for the month of June.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2018

40

51

9

63.2

May 2018

33

57

10

60.5

Apr 2018

36

57

7

60.0

Mar 2018

31

58

11

59.5

Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 52nd consecutive month. ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 53.6 percent, which reflects a decrease of 0.5 percentage point when compared to the May reading of 54.1 percent. Twelve industries reported increased employment, and three industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: “More client awards, so need to hire more people” and “Employee retention is getting much more competitive.”

The 12 industries reporting an increase in employment in June — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Mining; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a reduction in employment in June are: Accommodation & Food Services; Information; and Educational Services.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2018

29

58

13

53.6

May 2018

26

60

14

54.1

Apr 2018

24

63

13

53.6

Mar 2018

26

61

13

56.6

Supplier Deliveries
Supplier deliveries were slower in June for the 30th consecutive month. The index registered 55.5 percent, which is 3 percentage points lower than the 58.5 percent registered in May. This indicates that deliveries are slowing at a slower rate in June. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Backlog from capacity crunch and trucking issues” and “Rail and truck availability are diminishing service.”

The 10 industries reporting slower deliveries in June — listed in order — are: Mining; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Information; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries reporting faster deliveries in June are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Other Services.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Index

Jun 2018

14

83

3

55.5

May 2018

18

81

1

58.5

Apr 2018

11

87

2

54.5

Mar 2018

18

81

1

58.5

Inventories
ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in June for the fifth consecutive month, registering 53.5 percent, which is 4 percentage points lower than the 57.5 percent reported in May. Of the total respondents in June, 30 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Recent higher workload has depleted inventory” and “Building up for shortages.”

READ:  UN Makes Buying ‘Made in the USA’ As Hard As It Can Get

The five industries reporting an increase in inventories in June are: Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Information; Construction; and Retail Trade. The four industries reporting a decrease in inventories in June are: Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Seven industries reported no change in inventories in June compared to May.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2018

23

61

16

53.5

May 2018

29

57

14

57.5

Apr 2018

26

62

12

57.0

Mar 2018

26

55

19

53.5

Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in June for the 28th consecutive month. ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index registered 60.7 percent, 3.6 percentage points lower than the 64.3 percent reported in May. Twenty-nine percent of respondents reported higher prices, 67 percent indicated no change in prices paid and 4 percent of respondents reported lower prices.

The 13 non-manufacturing industries reporting an increase in prices paid during the month of June — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Information; Public Administration; Utilities; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Finance & Insurance. The only industry reporting lower prices in June compared to May is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2018

29

67

4

60.7

May 2018

41

54

5

64.3

Apr 2018

33

63

4

61.8

Mar 2018

30

66

4

61.5

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
ISM®‘s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders grew in June. The index registered 56.5 percent, which is 4 percentage points lower than the 60.5 percent reported in May. Of the total respondents in June, 39 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The nine industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in June — listed in order — are: Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. The two industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in June are: Utilities; and Other Services.

Backlog of Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2018

19

75

6

56.5

May 2018

28

65

7

60.5

Apr 2018

13

78

9

52.0

Mar 2018

23

67

10

56.5

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based personnel grew for the 17th consecutive month, at a faster rate in June. The New Export Orders Index registered 60.5 percent, which is 3 percentage points higher than the 57.5 percent reported in May. Of the total respondents in June, 63 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The 11 industries reporting an increase in new export orders in June — listed in order — are: Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Retail Trade; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Information. The only industry reporting a decrease in exports for the month of June is Other Services.

New Export Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2018

24

73

3

60.5

May 2018

18

79

3

57.5

Apr 2018

25

73

2

61.5

Mar 2018

19

78

3

58.0

Imports
The Imports Index reading of 51.5 percent is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 54 percent reported in May. Fifty-five percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The five industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of June are: Retail Trade; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting a decrease in imports in the month of June are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting. Six industries reported no change in imports in June compared to May.

Imports

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Index

Jun 2018

12

79

9

51.5

May 2018

13

82

5

54.0

Apr 2018

15

79

6

54.5

Mar 2018

15

80

5

55.0

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM® Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in June registered 57.5 percent, which is 3.5 percentage points lower than the 61 percent that was reported in May. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high at this time. In June, 20 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 5 percent of the respondents said their inventories were too low, and 75 percent said their inventories were about right.

The seven industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too high in June — listed in order — are: Information; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; and Accommodation & Food Services. The two industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in June compared with May are: Other Services and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Seven industries reported no change in inventory sentiment in June compared to May.

Inventory Sentiment

%Too
High

%About
Right

%Too
Low

Index

Jun 2018

20

75

5

57.5

May 2018

25

72

3

61.0

Apr 2018

22

76

2

60.0

Mar 2018

20

77

3

58.5

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About Carl Fox

Carl Fox is the money and finance editor for Conservative Daily News. Follow him in the "Money & The Economy" section at CDN and see his posts on the "Junior Economists" Facebook page.
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