The latest update on Hurricane Irma shows the storm moving more west than had been forecast, but the storm is strengthening. As Irma approaches the Florida coast, almost 200,000 people are without power according to Florida Power & Light.
This post is OUTDATED – see our current Irma coverage HERE.
The national weather service is currently forecasting landfall in western Florida. Irma is forecast to first make land over Key West then head north-northwest. Irma is then forecast to make landfall on the southwestern coast of the mainland before tracking up the peninsula into Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee.
*next update at — am EDT – check our Irma update page for new information
The latest satellite imagery shows a much more structured eye that has grown large indicating strengthening as Irma heads for the Florida Keys.
Irma is a strong category three storm that is expected to re-strengthen to a category four over the next 24-36 hours as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Florida. We will have to watch to see if the storm continues to strengthen or weaken as it heads for Florida.
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Marathon International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).
Computer models range from a southwestern Florida landfall to staying just off the coast until the panhandle.
Early cycle model consensus forecasts that Irma will ride up the western side of Florida with landfall at Key West and again near St. Petersburg.
The late cycle model consensus forecasts a landfall in the Keys and again at Fort Myers Beach then riding up through the western side of the sunshine state.
The intensity models show some strengthening as Irma leaves Cuba and approaches Florida.
*next computer model update 8 am EDT
The NWS now predicts that the eye of Irma will almost completely miss Florida. As this will put the “dirty” northeast side of the storm over the coast for an extended period, this is not good news for the west coast of the sunshine state.
Florida
The National Weather Service forecasts a direct hit to the Florida Keys before it heads up the coast, brushes Sarasota, Florida and then slams into the Tampa Bay area.
Florida has declared a state of emergency and multiple areas have been ordered to evacuate immediately.
Floridians should start preparing now to either shelter-in-place or evacuate. As Irma tracks towards Florida, additional evacuations will likely be posted. Don’t wait until the last minute and please listen to local authorities for instructions.
Georgia
Georgia has declared a state of emergency. Gov. Nathan Deal issued a mandatory evacuation order Thursday for all areas east of I-95 and other parts of the state’s coast as Hurricane Irma barrels toward Florida and Georgia with potentially catastrophic force.
“I encourage all Georgians in our coastal areas that could be impacted by this storm to evacuate the area as soon as possible,” Deal said. “Beginning Saturday, a mandatory evacuation order will take effect for Chatham County, all areas east of I-95 and some areas west of I-95 that could be impacted by this catastrophic hurricane and storm surge. GEMA/HS continues leading our preparedness efforts as we coordinate with federal, state and local officials to safely evacuate the coastal areas, provide public shelter and minimize the disruption of traffic. Finally, I ask all Georgians to join me in praying for the safety of our people and all those in Hurricane Irma’s path.”
South Carolina
South Carolina has declared a state of emergency, coastal areas and barrier islands are under a mandatory evacuation order.
“Now is the time to prepare,” Gov. McMaster warned during a news conference at the S.C. Emergency Management Division headquarters on Wednesday. “When it’s too late, it’s too late and that’s when we have a lot sadness.”
North Carolina
Gov. Roy Cooper has declared a state of emergency for North Carolina. No evacuations have been ordered.
Areas under storm surge warning
* South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Suwanee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
Areas under storm surge watch
* North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River
Areas under Hurricane Warning
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana
* Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama
Areas under Hurricane Watch
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass
Areas under Tropical Storm Warning
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
Areas under Tropical Storm Watch
* None
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through today. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, and in portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Sunday.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday:
In all areas, this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
INIT 09/2100Z 23.4N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 44 miles SE of Key West
24H 10/1800Z 25.7N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 32 miles SW of Naples, FL
————- Landfall Near Capr Coral, FL ———————–
36H 11/0600Z 28.3N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 13 miles SSW of Spring Hill, FL
48H 11/1800Z 31.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND – Moultrie, GA
72H 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 14/1800Z…DISSIPATED
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