A CNN/ORC poll released today shows that Donald Trump and Jeb Bush hold the most support and are the most-liked candidates on important issues.
Trump led the GOP field with 25% of those polled saying that they would vote for him if the election were held today while Jeb Bush held on to second place in the poll at 13% with all other candidates down in the single digits.
The top two candidate shared many other leading statistics as both Trump and Bush were rated the most “unfavorable” 59% and 56% respectively and both have the most visibility. Only 1% of those polled said they didn’t know who Trump was while 6% were unfamiliar with Jeb bush. The negative sentiment us unlikely to quickly change as there are very few voters that haven’t seen and made up their minds about these two candidates.
The poll showed where Trump is separating himself from the rest of the GOP candidate field. While Jeb Bush came in second on every issue, Trump garnered at least 16 points more than the former governor on everything but social issues. Trump pulled 45% on economy, 44% on immigration, 32% on ISIS but only 18% on social issues “such as abortion and same-sex marriage.”
Likely an artifact of the huge amount of negative sentiment against Donald Trump, most of those polled believe that the Republicans have a better chance of winning the general election with “someone else.” Only 38% believe that Trump is the best chance the GOP has for retaking the White House.
And finally, we apply the CDN T3 averaging formula to better understand the candidate’s chances of taking the nomination. Unlike other averages, T3 takes negative sentiment into account not just positive support. While it doesn’t show pure popularity, it does expose otherwise hidden weaknesses in candidates.
Tier Three (Running out of support, time and money)
This poll places Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Jim Gilmore and George Pataki in our third tier. All of then candidates in this tier registered 2% or less support from those polled. While the other tiers see candidates moving between them, this one is consistent with recent polls that showed these candidates struggling to get traction. Candidates in the third tier need to get reverse course quickly or every resource a campaign needs to be successful will be out of their reach.