US Job Growth Projected To Stall In Coming Year In Another Sign Of Stagflation

Job growth may stall in the second half of 2024 as low growth and high inflation continue to elevate fears of stagflation, a report released Monday by the research group The Conference Board shows.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index, which has in the past successfully tracked job growth trends, fell from 112.16 in March to 111.25 in April, indicating that job growth may decline in the second half of the year as the index continues to trend down, according to the report. The downward projection in hiring adds more fuel to fears that the U.S. economy is in the midst of stagflation, typically marked by low economic growth, high unemployment and elevated inflation.

“The ETI fell in April, a sign that employment growth could stall in the second half of 2024,” Will Baltrus, associate economist at The Conference Board, said in the report. “The ETI has been on a downward trajectory since its peak in March 2022, and this month signals a continuation of that trend. However, the Index remains historically elevated and is still above its pre-pandemic level, which suggests aggregate job losses are less likely than a slowdown in employment growth.”

Negative changes in the percentage of respondents who said that they find “jobs hard to get,” the ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers and the number of employees hired in temporary positions drove the decreases in the index in the month, according to the report. The Board projects that slowing consumer demand for goods and services will be the main driver of rising unemployment in the near future.

The unemployment rate remained low in April at 3.9%, while the number of jobs added totaled 175,000 for the month, far below economists’ expectations of 243,000. April’s gains were brought down by an increase of just 8,000 government positions, far lower than the average of 55,000 over the past year.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) measured just 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, while inflation remained elevated in March, rising 3.5% year-over-year, which has led many market watchers to speculate the economy is in a disastrous period of stagflation, which wreaked havoc on consumers in the 1970s and 1980s. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell criticized claims that the economy is stalling, pointing to low unemployment and underlying growth in certain aspects of GDP.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request to comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.