Experts forecast that 3,296,280 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2022, which reflects a 15.2% decrease from the first quarter of 2021 but a 0.4% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Although Q1 new-vehicle sales volumes are expected to see a year-over-year decline, Edmunds analysts note that vehicles are selling quickly: Edmunds data reveals that in Q1 2022, 41% of all new vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot, compared to 20% in Q1 2021.
But, a combination of headwinds could mean that serious inventory issues will persist throughout 2022 making delivery of new cars more difficult.
“Skyrocketing gas prices were top of mind for consumers in March, but the lack of inventory is what ultimately depressed new vehicle sales in the first quarter,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of insights. “Automakers are still grappling with ongoing disruptions to supply chains and production created by the chip shortage and COVID-19.”
According to Edmunds days-to-turn (DTT) data1, all vehicles regardless of fuel type are selling at an accelerated pace compared to a year ago. In March 2022, the average DTT for:
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Sales Volume | 2022 Q1 Forecast | Q1 2021 Sales | Q4 2021 Sales | Change from Q1 2021 | Change from Q4 2021 |
| GM | 513,849 | 642,571 | 441,068 | -20.0% | 16.5% |
| Toyota | 502,194 | 603,066 | 474,435 | -16.7% | 5.9% |
| Ford | 427,805 | 521,334 | 508,671 | -17.9% | -15.9% |
| Stellantis | 420,705 | 471,335 | 419,821 | -10.7% | 0.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 329,713 | 335,337 | 313,905 | -1.7% | 5.0% |
| Honda | 263,344 | 347,091 | 287,208 | -24.1% | -8.3% |
| Nissan | 202,534 | 285,553 | 194,983 | -29.1% | 3.9% |
| VW/Audi | 103,016 | 142,927 | 119,672 | -27.9% | -13.9% |
| Industry | 3,296,280 | 3,887,444 | 3,282,536 | -15.2% | 0.4% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2022 Q1 Forecast | Q1 2021 Market Share | Q4 2021 Market Share | Change from Q1 2021 | Change from Q4 2021 |
| GM | 15.6% | 16.5% | 13.4% | -5.7% | 16.0% |
| Toyota | 15.2% | 15.5% | 14.5% | -1.8% | 5.4% |
| Ford | 13.0% | 13.4% | 15.5% | -3.2% | -16.2% |
| Stellantis | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 5.3% | -0.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 16.0% | 4.6% |
| Honda | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | -10.5% | -8.7% |
| Nissan | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | -16.4% | 3.4% |
| VW/Audi | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | -15.0% | -14.3% |
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