As Obama continues to increase pressure on Iran in the hope that the government in Tehran will give up its nuclear program, the Iranians will respond to escalation with escalation. So far Obama has offered only sanctions. There is general agreement in the US on two points: (1) an Iranian nuclear weapons capability is “unacceptable,”and (2) the US prefers reaching an acceptable outcome without using force. There are three factors to consider when a US-Iran war is contemplated:
Obama is married to the idea that nations can just sit down and talk about their problems with each other over a beer. Yet perhaps Obama has finally realized that his assumptions about the uses of diplomacy were incorrect. Obama may have come to the realization that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might appear to be a clown, he is serious about acquiring nuclear weapons, and he is not interested in following the policy of “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) that has kept the nuclear powers from turning the entire planet into a burnt cinder. Obama and his advisers do not seem to be concerned with the deaths of anyone so long as their ideological goals are reached.
Obama, during the primary debates for the Democrat nomination, said that he would be glad to meet with any head of government without preconditions. Now we get word of a letter Obama sent to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei. The White House disputed Iranian reports that Obama sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader offering direct bilateral talks. Regarding the letter, Iranian Member of Parliament Hojjatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi said:
The fourth consideration is our definition of victory. A regime-change goal would require a broad military offensive that could include nuclear facilities, air defenses, Iran’s retaliatory capabilities, leadership targets, regime supporters, and national infrastructure and economic targets. The more expansive a war’s goals as a plan escalates from strike to campaign to broad offensive, the greater the force needed to achieve those goals. The primary question is: if the politicians start a war, will they step back and let an unencumbered military fight it? If we look at recent history, it doesn’t look too promising.
But that’s just my opinion.
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