Experts forecast that 3,296,280 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2022, which reflects a 15.2% decrease from the first quarter of 2021 but a 0.4% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Although Q1 new-vehicle sales volumes are expected to see a year-over-year decline, Edmunds analysts note that vehicles are selling quickly: Edmunds data reveals that in Q1 2022, 41% of all new vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot, compared to 20% in Q1 2021.
But, a combination of headwinds could mean that serious inventory issues will persist throughout 2022 making delivery of new cars more difficult.
“Skyrocketing gas prices were top of mind for consumers in March, but the lack of inventory is what ultimately depressed new vehicle sales in the first quarter,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of insights. “Automakers are still grappling with ongoing disruptions to supply chains and production created by the chip shortage and COVID-19.”
According to Edmunds days-to-turn (DTT) data1, all vehicles regardless of fuel type are selling at an accelerated pace compared to a year ago. In March 2022, the average DTT for:
- Gas-powered vehicles dropped to 20 days, compared to 62 days in March 2021. 43% of all gas-powered vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot in March 2022 compared to 20% a year ago.
- Diesel vehicles dropped to 23 days, compared to 36 days in March 2021. 39% of all diesel vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot in March 2022 compared to 26% a year ago.
- Electric vehicles dropped to 21 days, compared to 63 days in March 2021. 39% of all EVs sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot in March 2022 compared to 24% a year ago.
- Hybrid vehicles dropped to 15 days, compared to 48 days in March 2021. 54% of all hybrid vehicles sold within the first week of arriving on a dealer lot in March 2022 compared to 27% a year ago.
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Sales Volume | 2022 Q1 Forecast | Q1 2021 Sales | Q4 2021 Sales | Change from Q1 2021 | Change from Q4 2021 |
| GM | 513,849 | 642,571 | 441,068 | -20.0% | 16.5% |
| Toyota | 502,194 | 603,066 | 474,435 | -16.7% | 5.9% |
| Ford | 427,805 | 521,334 | 508,671 | -17.9% | -15.9% |
| Stellantis | 420,705 | 471,335 | 419,821 | -10.7% | 0.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 329,713 | 335,337 | 313,905 | -1.7% | 5.0% |
| Honda | 263,344 | 347,091 | 287,208 | -24.1% | -8.3% |
| Nissan | 202,534 | 285,553 | 194,983 | -29.1% | 3.9% |
| VW/Audi | 103,016 | 142,927 | 119,672 | -27.9% | -13.9% |
| Industry | 3,296,280 | 3,887,444 | 3,282,536 | -15.2% | 0.4% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2022 Q1 Forecast | Q1 2021 Market Share | Q4 2021 Market Share | Change from Q1 2021 | Change from Q4 2021 |
| GM | 15.6% | 16.5% | 13.4% | -5.7% | 16.0% |
| Toyota | 15.2% | 15.5% | 14.5% | -1.8% | 5.4% |
| Ford | 13.0% | 13.4% | 15.5% | -3.2% | -16.2% |
| Stellantis | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 5.3% | -0.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 16.0% | 4.6% |
| Honda | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | -10.5% | -8.7% |
| Nissan | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | -16.4% | 3.4% |
| VW/Audi | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | -15.0% | -14.3% |
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