Postmortem 2024
What are some of the most important takeaways from Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election this week? Certainly not what the media are telling you. But there are enduring lessons that this election makes clear:
1. Republicans had a great legal ground game this time. After the 2020 debacle, Republican National Committee co-chairs Michael Whatley and Lara Trump had lawyers on-site in every major city of every battleground state, making fraud or other election shenanigans significantly more difficult. The RNC won most of the legal challenges it filed, including a U.S. Supreme Court decision permitting the state of Virginia to remove noncitizens from the voter rolls. That has to be the modus operandi going forward.
2. Scott Presler is a national treasure. Presler’s first brush with fame was in 2019, when he undertook voluntary cleanups of trash in Baltimore and more than a dozen other major American cities. Thereafter, he moved to voter registration and took it upon himself to help win the state of Pennsylvania for Trump, targeting young people, hunters, over-the-road truckers and the Amish. Presler was instrumental in flipping Bucks County, which voted Republican for the first time since 1988. He deserves a prominent place in the Trump administration.
3. The most reliable polls were fairly accurate again. AtlasIntel and Rasmussen both drew attention to trends suggesting that Trump would likely win handily, with between 300 and 312 Electoral College votes. At this writing, Trump has 301, and if Arizona is called for him, he’ll be at 312.
4. The rhetoric is the problem. For decades, Democrats in the punditocracy have ramped up their attacks on every single Republican candidate for president (Reagan, Bush 1 and 2, McCain, Romney and Trump). More recently, these condescending elites have turned their fire on the American public, calling Trump supporters “deplorables,” “garbage” and “racists” who were willing to elect a fascist dictator (Trump). Whether or not the talking heads in the press believe their own shtick, their followers clearly do. Social media is now filled with people flailing, crying, screaming that their lives are in danger. This is nonsense that borders on mental illness, and those who promote and encourage it deserve to lose their jobs.
5. Kamala Harris was a terrible candidate. Democrats brought this on themselves. Joe Biden was a weak candidate, and his vice president was worse. Biden should have had serious challengers in the 2020 primaries and never should have been allowed to run again. Harris couldn’t even get 1% support from her own party in 2020. Installing her as the candidate four months from the election, and crafting a campaign about “vibes” and her gender and ethnic background to cover for her inability to articulate a single coherent policy position, was madness. Democrats deserved to lose.
6. Issues matter more than personality or moral failings. Bill Clinton forever changed the political calculus about candidates’ personal morality. (It’s just sex, remember?) But this seems now to be a bipartisan phenomenon. As disgusted as voters may be with a candidate’s personal life, they care more about the issues that affect them: the economy, inflation, government overreach, illegal immigration and crime.
7. The Democratic Party needs to clean house. The Democratic Party has let itself be co-opted by an uber-left faction whose policies are deeply destructive and loathed by large swaths of the electorate. Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks had an epic rant directed at the leadership of the Democratic Party. They are where the Republican Party was 20 years ago. Voters finally had enough of RINOs looking out for their own interests, and not for ours. Want to know why Trump has so much loyalty? That’s why. The sooner the Democratic Party figures that out, the sooner they’ll get their voters back.
8. Immigration is an opportunity — for Republicans. Ours is a large country that can easily absorb 10 million more people. The problem isn’t the people, it’s the process. It should be easy and fairly quick to immigrate here legally. And the conditions should be clear: you arrive, you get a work permit and a job; you don’t bring family in unless you can support them. No welfare, no handouts, no free housing, no other goodies paid for by American taxpayers. No citizenship for five years. You commit a crime? You’re deported. No more sanctuary cities. No more gangs controlling apartment buildings.
Then, Republicans need to make their case to these new citizens: For God’s sake, once you can legally vote, do not vote for the party whose policies are as bad as what you left behind.
9. Democrats should see now that the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would be a disaster. The single biggest thing I wanted from this election, above and beyond a victory for Trump, was a win in the “popular vote.” Seventeen states — most of them reliably blue — have enacted NPVIC legislation, pursuant to which they agree to give their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote — regardless of who their own citizens voted for.
The provisions of the NPVIC have not been triggered, because by its terms, it only comes into effect once the electoral votes represented by the signatory states reach 270; at present, they have only 209.
But if the NPVIC had been in effect yesterday, every signatory blue state, including New York, California, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey and the District of Columbia, would be handing over their electoral votes to Trump.
Still excited about that prospect?
The citizens of the states that have passed the NPVIC legislation should demand that it be repealed.
10. The American legal system needs an overhaul. Politicians should not be able to use the legal system against their political opponents, and those who actually violate the law should be brought to justice.
Most of this isn’t news to anyone who’s been paying attention. But as this election demonstrates, politicians and parties ignore these at their peril.
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