President Donald Trump either has no shot at being reelected or is in one of the tightest races according to which poll you look at. Some things never change.
CNN released a poll Sept. 2 with the former vice president ahead 51% – 43%. Joe Biden holds a 49% – 47% lead over the incumbent, according to a poll released by Emerson College last week.
Mining through the data, CNN has 31% percent of “people of color” supporting the president. The Emerson survey found 19% support among African Americans for the president: Trump won 8% support from that constituency in the 2016 election.
If the media was unbiased, double-digit African American and Latino support for an incumbent Republican president would grab the headlines. The mainstream media (MSM) disagrees. The gatekeepers who decide what news is touted prefer to paint the president as a white nationalist, fascist, and they claim he has stinky feet.
Rigging the Race?
Eight points could keep people from voting. They might figure Biden has the win locked up. Why bother? I see it as latent voter suppression. Two points, especially with neither candidate topping 50%, could encourage voters to make every effort to hit the voting booth.
Four years ago Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by 3% following the conventions. Pollsters, and MSM, crowned Clinton the queen until the final electoral college vote was counted. Then came the meltdown.
CNN is so biased, it didn’t even hawk its poll showing the former vice president with a 4% lead over the president before the conventions. One glaring hole with the poll is Trump was gaining in battleground states. But that didn’t stop the Washington Post, ABC News, NBC News, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, NPR and the PBS NewsHour from reporting Biden’s lead period.
MSNBC has declared the election all but over. It has Trump at the “Mendoza line.” It is a geekish attempt at explaining how incumbent presidents since Jimmy Carter have had at least a 10% approval rate at convention time. Trump’s approval rating would need to gain at least 4% between now and the election. The president’s high and low have only moved 6 points in all 2020.
Military Turns on Commander-in-Chief
Most recent polls have bad news for the president. Men and women serving in the military favor Biden over the commander-in-chief 43 – 37 percent, according to the Military Times. The paper and the Institute for Veterans and Military Families at Syracuse University sponsored the poll that was conducted between July 27 and Aug. 10. Nearly 13 percent of 1,018 active-duty surveyed chose a different option.
The respondents were skewed toward lifers. Even though they said they held a favorable view of Trump’s handling of military issues, a few particulars stuck out as sore points:
- Only 17 percent think the White House handled the Russia bounties allegation appropriately;
- Seventy-four percent disagreed with using the active-duty military in response to civil unrest in U.S. cities;
- Half supported using National Guard troops;
- They ranked China and Russia as much greater national security threats than Iran;
- 21 percent saw immigration as a significant national security issue;
- 48 percent identified white nationalists as a concern;
- About half want more troops in Germany.
The only poll I’ve seen this week that I have any faith in hails from Rasmussen Reports. Of more than 1,000 probable voters only 46% of likely voters think it’s likely the 2020 presidential election will be decided on Election Day, Nov. 3. Nearly as many (44%) say it’s more likely that the winner will not be known until days, possibly weeks, after Election Day.
The company concludes a majority of Democrats agreeing with Hillary Clinton that Biden should not concede if the race is close may have something to do with it.