President Donald Trump, on Tuesday, March 24, 2020, said he would like to see the country “back to work” by Easter – Sunday, April 12, as he considers easing stringent guidelines put in place to stem the spread of the new Coronavirus outbreak across the U.S.
Many in the media ran with this comment as if Trump said he actually would open America for business regardless of any other conditions. He did not. President Trump said he would “like to” – as everyone else. He obviously is considering many factors. President Trump obviously has access to information well beyond what we may have. Large majorities say restrictions are necessary – see Pew opinion poll. The question of whether any of this makes sense we set aside for this purpose of this article. That being said, at Right Wire Report we thought we would look at some Game Theory to see where this Coronavirus situation is going.
First off, what would be the signs Trump would look for to even consider getting America “back to work?” It is all about the “curve” – in both length and height. The Coronavirus “curve” length is about how long (time) from the initial infection of Coronavirus until recovery. Depending on when a region (or country) has been initially infected, the start of a region on this curve will vary.
The height of the curve is the severity of the virus’s effect on a population. The desired state is to “flatten the curve” (and shorten) as much as possible. See graphic below:
Based upon the John Hopkins numbers (yes, this is an assumption), it appears that the average length of the curve is about three months. Data from China and South Korea seem to show this. We note that many question the Chinese numbers, but the South Korean numbers do give us some hope on this three-month “curve” length – we need more evidence here. This evidence could come in the next week or two. There are various factors that can adjust the length and height – such as the strength of a country’s response.
Secondly, Coronavirus remedies may be in place by Easter 2020. Here is just a shortlist of promising remedies:
- Biotech company Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine is ready for first tests.
- CEO of a company claiming to have coronavirus vaccine says they are moving on to phase one of testing.
- Israeli scientists claim to be weeks away from coronavirus vaccine.
- Trump Suggests Two Drugs For Coronavirus Treatment.
- These 16 companies are working on coronavirus treatments or vaccines — here’s where things stand.
- When might experimental drugs, to treat Covid-19, be ready? A forecast.
- Coronavirus treatment: Vaccines/drugs in the pipeline for COVID-19.
- This doctor was already treating patients with Trump’s ‘gift from God’ drug – before FDA approval.
So “IF” by Easter 2020, we round the top of the “curve” and Coronavirus remedies are in place, at this point Trump could consider opening up a portion of the U.S. to get “back to work.” There may be light at the end of the tunnel. “IF” not, this makes the situation problematic – but this is why Trump said that he would “like to” get America “back to work.” No one can know this for sure. So how could this be done – a partial opening of America to get “back to work?”
A few have already started to think about this, though, in different timeframes. But, we will focus on the Trump administration’s “like to” of opening America for business by Easter. The reality is that most Americans may not accept the draconian measures adopted by the Europeans (forced stay at home orders, roadblocks, papers, etc …). But at the same time, in areas across America, draconian measures are already being taken – limiting civil liberties. For example:
FEMA has A.E. zones and A1- 30 zones per public information. These are connected to flood planes – see the feature image. However, after 911, the Department of Homeland Security uses FEMA zones, which now cover all U.S. soil, including territories. FEMA uses these zones to work with the Pentagon in staging and control of zone protocols and resources. So a management structure is already in place to handle the Coronavirus situation.
The strategy would be to manage a grid. Separating areas infected from areas minimally infected. Allowing areas with minimal infections to get back to work, while still controlling areas infected. Putting on the Right Wire Report thinking cap, here are some of the principled base strategies that could be put in place:
- Trump has already asked governors to rank their state’s counties (zones) by their rate of infection risk – see letter to the governors.
- Implementing a strategy that may need to include additional protocol restrictions by age, as those over the age of 60 have a higher risk – see here and here.
- Establish Red, Yellow, and Green zones – with appropriate criteria for zone definition (i.e., infection rates) and its associated protocol for each zone type – the Trump administration is already working on these protocols. The higher the infection zone, the more restrictive the protocol.
- Protocols would include; testing/information collection, preventative/remedial treatments, social-distancing (allowable public gatherings and recommended private gatherings), specific business sector directives, viral sterilization/barrier (i.e., masks, gloves, etc …) directives, and voluntary incentivized people movement restrictions (public and private transportation).
As a zone improves, the zone would be redefined to a less infected zone (e.g., moving a yellow zone to a green zone). In some cases, there may be some backtracking. Over time the entire country would get clean and thereby get America entirely “back to work.” Right Wire Report just presents one option, but for sure, there could be a variety of other strategies. Please place in the comment section additional ideas you may have in the comment section of this article.