Trump Effect: Economic Growth To Continue Throughout 2018

Economic growth is expected to continue in the U.S. throughout 2018, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in their Spring 2018 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2018 continue to be positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors according to the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Business Survey Committees.

Manufacturing Summary
Sixty-two percent of respondents from the panel of manufacturing supply management executives predict their revenues, on average, will be 11.6 percent greater in 2018 compared to 2017, 5 percent expect an 11.9 percent decline, and 33 percent foresee no change in revenue. This yields an overall average forecast of 6.6 percent revenue growth among manufacturers for 2018. This current prediction is 1.5 percentage points above the December 2017 forecast of 5.1-percent revenue growth for 2018 and is 2.5 percentage points above the actual revenue growth reported for all of 2017. With operating rate at 85.8 percent, an expected capital expenditure increase of 10.1 percent, an increase of 5 percent for prices paid for raw materials, and employment expected to increase by 1.8 percent by the end of 2018 compared to the end of 2017, manufacturing is positioned to grow revenues while managing costs through the remainder of the year. “With 15 of the 18 manufacturing sector industries predicting revenue growth in 2018, when compared to 2017, U.S. manufacturing continues to move in a positive direction. However, finding and onboarding qualified labor and being able to pass on raw material price increases will ultimately define manufacturing revenues and profitability,” says Fiore.

The 15 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue for 2018 — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

The manufacturing panel was also asked Special Questions related to the impact thus far in 2018 on the following: (1) In the past six months, has your firm had difficulty hiring workers to fill open positions? (2) In the past six months, has your firm raised wages to recruit new hires? (3) In the past six months, has your firm offered additional training for new hires? (4) In the past six months, has your firm increased, decreased or left unchanged its capital spending plans for the next 12 months? And why did you say so? (5) Do you believe that tariffs will raise the price of the goods that you produce and deliver to your customers? (6) If you believe that tariffs will raise the price of your goods to your customers, by how much? (7) Do you believe that tariffs will cause delays and disruptions in your supply chain? Their responses are provided at the end of this report.

Non-Manufacturing Summary
Forty-nine percent of non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect their 2018 revenues to be greater by 7.1 percent as compared to 2018. Respondents currently expect a 3.2 percent net increase in overall revenue, which is less than the 6 percent increase that was forecasted in December 2017. “Non-manufacturing will continue to grow for the balance of 2018. Non-manufacturing companies continue to operate efficiently, which is reflected by the high percentage of capacity utilization. Supply managers have indicated that prices are projected to increase 2.1 percent over the year. Employment is projected to grow 1.5 percent. Sixteen out of 18 industries are forecasting increased revenues, which is fewer than the 17 industries that forecasted increased revenues last year. The non-manufacturing sector will continue economic growth throughout the year,” says Nieves.

The 16 non-manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2018 — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Utilities; Public Administration; and Accommodation & Food Services.

The non-manufacturing panel was also asked Special Questions related to the impact thus far in 2018 on the following: (1) In the past six months, has your firm had difficulty hiring workers to fill open positions? (2) In the past six months, has your firm raised wages to recruit new hires? (3) In the past six months, has your firm offered additional training for new hires? (4) In the past six months, has your firm increased, decreased or left unchanged its capital spending plans for the next 12 months? And why did you say so? (5) Do you believe that tariffs will raise the price of the goods that you produce and deliver to your customers? (6) If you believe that tariffs will raise the price of your goods to your customers, by how much? (7) Do you believe that tariffs will cause delays and disruptions in your supply chain? Their responses are provided at the end of this report.

OPERATING RATE

Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply managers report that their companies are currently operating, on average, at 85.8 percent of normal capacity, the same as in December 2017, as well as an increase from the 82.5 percent reported in May 2017. The 11 industries reporting operating capacity levels at or above the average capacity of 85.8 percent — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives report that their organizations are currently operating at 85.5 percent of normal capacity. This is 6.4 percent less than what was reported in December 2017 and less than the 86.9 percent reported in May 2017. The nine industries operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 85.5 percent — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Construction.

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturing
Production capacity in manufacturing is expected to increase 4.9 percent in 2018. This increase is more than the 2.7-percent increase predicted in December 2017 and is greater than the 4.3-percent increase reported in December 2017 for all of 2017. This reflects the continuing strength in the sector, as 43 percent of respondents expect an average capacity increase of 13.3 percent, 3 percent expect decreases averaging 29.6 percent, and 54 percent expect no change. The 15 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2018 — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Non-Manufacturing
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the non-manufacturing sector is expected to increase 3.8 percent during 2018. This compares to an increase of 2.9 percent reported for 2017, and a prediction in December 2017 for an increase of 3.4 percent for 2018. Twenty-four percent of non-manufacturing respondents expect their capacity for 2018 to increase by an average of 16.6 percent, and 1 percent of the respondents foresee their capacity decreasing by an average of 8.3 percent. Seventy-five percent expect no change in their capacity. The 12 industries expecting to add to their production capacity in 2018 — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Construction; Information; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Accommodation & Food Services.

PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2018 vs. 2017

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a 10.1-percent increase in capital expenditures in 2018. This is notably higher than the 2.7-percent increase predicted by the panel in the December 2017 forecast for 2018. Currently, 34 percent of respondents predict increased capital expenditures in 2018, with an average increase of 42.1 percent, and 14 percent said their capital spending would decrease an average of 30.5 percent. Fifty-two percent say they will spend the same in 2018 as they did in 2017. The 13 industries expecting increases in capital expenditures in 2018 compared to 2017 — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Machinery.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives are expecting to increase their level of capital expenditures 6.8 percent in 2018 compared to 2017. The 29 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 30.6 percent. Seven percent of respondents anticipate an average decrease of 29.1 percent. Sixty-four percent of the respondents expect to spend the same on capital expenditures in 2018 as in 2017. The 12 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures in 2018 from 2017 — listed in order — are: Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Accommodation & Food Services.

PRICES — Changes Between End of 2017 and April 2018

Manufacturing
In the December 2017 forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 1.3 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2018; they now report prices actually increased by 4.8 percent. The 70 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2017 report an average increase of 7.1 percent, while the 4 percent who report lower prices report an average decrease of 4.5 percent. The remaining 26 percent indicate no change for the period. All 18 manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid for the first part of 2018 in the following order: Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing respondents report that their purchases in the first four months of this year cost an average of 1.3 percent more than at the end of 2017. This is 0.2 percentage point higher than the 1.1-percent increase predicted in December 2017 for the first four months of 2018. Thirty-nine percent of non-manufacturing respondents report that prices increased an average of 4.6 percent in the first part of 2017. Eight percent report price decreases averaging 6.1 percent. The remaining 53 percent indicate no change in prices paid in the first four months of 2018. The 14 industries reporting an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2018 — listed in order — are: Construction; Public Administration; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Finance & Insurance.

PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2017 and End of 2018

Manufacturing
When asked to predict 2018 price changes, 70 percent of respondents expect prices to increase by 7.3 percent for the full year of 2018 compared to the end of 2017. Meanwhile, 4 percent anticipate decreases averaging 3.6 percent. Including the 26 percent who expect no change in prices, survey respondents expect a net average prices increase of 5 percent for all of 2018, indicating that prices are expected to rise 0.2 percentage point over the remainder of the year. All 18 manufacturing industries are predicting price increases for all of 2018 in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Non-Manufacturing
For 2018, non-manufacturing respondents expect prices to increase, on average, 2.1 percent when compared to the prices at the end of 2017. Given that respondents have reported that prices have increased 1.3 percent through May 2018, prices are projected to increase 0.8 percentage point over the remainder of the year. Fifty-three percent of respondents anticipate price increases averaging 4.8 percent. Nine percent of respondents expect price decreases of 6 percent, and 38 percent do not expect prices to change. The 16 industries expecting price increases in 2018 — listed in order — are: Construction; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Utilities; Information; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

EMPLOYMENT

Employment – Predicted Changes Between End of 2017 and End of 2018

Manufacturing
ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey respondents forecast that manufacturing employment will increase by 1.8 percent by the end of 2018, compared to the end of 2017. Thirty-eight percent of respondents expect employment to be 7.7, on average, percent higher, while 9 percent of respondents predict employment to be lower by 13.1 percent. The remaining 53 percent of respondents expect their employment levels to be unchanged for the remainder of 2018. The 12 industries reporting expectations of growth in employment during 2018 — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Non-Manufacturing
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that employment will increase 1.5 percent through the end of 2018. For the remaining months of 2018, 33 percent expect employment to increase, on average, 7.4 percent, 12 percent anticipate employment to decrease by 8.5 percent, and 55 percent expect their employment levels to be unchanged. The 11 industries anticipating increases in employment — listed in order — are: Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Public Administration; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

*Change made to questionnaire in 2017. Respondents are now asked for a year-over-year employment comparison rather than a partial-year update, as previously reported.

BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison — 2018 vs. 2017

Manufacturing
Increased revenue is expected in 2018 as purchasing and supply management executives predict an overall net increase of 6.6 percent in sector business revenue for 2018 over 2017. This is 1.5 percentage points higher than the 5.1-percent increase forecast in December 2017 for all of 2018, and 2.5 percentage points higher than the 4.1-percent increase reported for 2017 over 2016. Sixty-two percent of respondents say that revenues for 2018 will increase, on average, 11.6 percent over 2017. Conversely, 5 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 11.9 percent, and the remaining 33 percent indicate no change. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 are reporting expectations of growth in revenue during 2018 in the following order: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing respondents forecast that sector business revenue for 2018 will increase 3.2 percent compared to 2017. This is 2.8 percent less than the 6 percent that was predicted in December 2017 for 2018. The 49 percent of respondents forecasting better business in 2018 than in 2017 estimate an average revenue increase of 7.1 percent. The 5 percent who predict less business in 2018 forecast an average decrease of 7.7 percent. The remaining 46 percent see no change in revenues for 2018. The 16 industries expecting an increase in revenues in 2018 — listed in order — are:  Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Utilities; Public Administration; and Accommodation & Food Services.

SPECIAL QUESTIONS RELATED TO THE EARLY MONTHS OF 2018

We asked the panelists to tell us: (1) In the past six months, has your firm had difficulty hiring workers to fill open positions? (2) In the past six months, has your firm raised wages to recruit new hires? (3) In the past six months, has your firm offered additional training for new hires? (4) In the past six months, has your firm increased, decreased, or left unchanged its capital spending plans for the next 12 months? And why did you say so?

We also asked three questions related to tariffs. (1) Do you believe that tariffs will raise the price of the goods that you produce and deliver to your customers? (2) If you believe that tariffs will raise the price of your goods to your customers, by how much? (3) Do you believe that tariffs will cause delays and disruptions in your supply chain?

Manufacturing
Answers to the first Special Question, “In the past six months, has your firm had difficulty hiring workers to fill open positions?”:

• Yes, we have had difficulty hiring (77.9%)
• No, we have not had difficulty hiring (22.1%)

Answers to the second Special Question, “In the past six months, has your firm raised wages to recruit new hires?”:

• Yes (53.3%)
• No (46.7%)

Answers to the third Special Question, “In the past six months, has your firm offered additional training for new hires?”:

• Yes (47.9%)
• No (52.1%)

Answers to the fourth Special Question, “In the past six months, has your firm increased, decreased or left unchanged its capital spending plans for the next 12 months? And why did you say so?”:

• Increased capital spending plans (35.5%)
• Decreased capital spending plans (11.7%)
• No change to capital spending plans (52.8%)

As a follow-up to the fourth Special Question, respondents were asked why they answered as they did.

• The reasons given by those who increased capital spending plans (35.5%):
  • General business outlook (68.9%)
  • Recent business tax reform (14.4%)
  • Prospects for regulatory reform (2.2%)
  • Other (14.4%)
• The reasons given by those who decreased capital spending plans (11.7%):
  • General business outlook (50.0%)
  • Prospects for regulatory reform (3.3%)
  • Recent business tax reform (3.3%)
  • Other (40.0%)
  • Not applicable (3.3%)

Answers to the fifth Special Question, “Do you believe that tariffs will raise the price of the goods that you produce and deliver to your customers?”:

• Yes (73.9%)
• No (26.1%)

In response to the sixth Special Question, “If you believe that tariffs will raise the price of your goods to your customers, by how much?”, the average increase was 5.4 percent, with a median of 3.0 percent.

Answers to the seventh Special Question, “Do you believe that tariffs will cause delays and disruptions in your supply chain?”:

• Yes (57.5%)
• No (42.5%)

Non-Manufacturing
Answers to the first Special Question, “In the past six months, has your firm had difficulty hiring workers to fill open positions?”:

• Yes, we have had difficulty hiring (64.4%)
• No, we have not had difficulty hiring (35.6%)

Answers to the second Special Question, “In the past six months, has your firm raised wages to recruit new hires?”:

• Yes (35.7%)
• No (64.3%)

Answers to the third Special Question, “In the past six months, has your firm offered additional training for new hires?”:

• Yes (50%)
• No (50%)

Answers to the fourth Special Question, “In the past six months, has your firm increased, decreased or left unchanged its capital spending plans for the next 12 months? And why did you say so?”:

• Increased capital spending plans (31.4%)
• Decreased capital spending plans (10.1%)
• No change to capital spending plans (58.5%)

As a follow-up to the fourth Special Question, respondents were asked why they answered as they did:

• The reasons given by those who increased capital spending plans (31.4%):
  • General business outlook (57.6%)
  • Recent business tax reform (18.6%)
  • Prospects for regulatory reform (3.4%)
  • Other (18.6%)
• The reasons given by those who decreased capital spending plans (10.1%):
  • General business outlook (57.9%)
  • Prospects for regulatory reform (5.3%)
  • Recent business tax reform (0%)
  • Other (36.8%)

Answers to the fifth Special Question, “Do you believe that tariffs will raise the price of the goods that you produce and deliver to your customers?”:

• Yes (50.3%)
• No (49.7%)

In response to the sixth Special Question, “If you believe that tariffs will raise the price of your goods to your customers, by how much?”, the percent given was 7.2% with a median of 5.0%.

Answers to the seventh Special Question: “Do you believe that tariffs will cause delays and disruptions in your supply chain?”:

• Yes (59%)
• No (41%)

SUMMARY

Manufacturing

• Operating rate is currently at 85.8 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 4.9 percent in 2018.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 10.1 percent in 2018.
• Prices paid increased 4.8 percent through the end of April 2018.
• Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 5.0 percent for all of 2018, indicating an expected increase of 0.2 percent in prices for the remainder of the year.
• Manufacturing employment is expected to increase by 1.8 percent in 2018.
• Manufacturing revenue is expected to increase 6.6 percent in 2018.
• Overall, manufacturing is expected to exhibit a positive growth trend in 2018.

Non-Manufacturing

• Operating rate is currently 85.5 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 3.8 percent in 2018.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 6.8 percent in 2018.
• Prices paid increased 1.3 percent through the end of April 2018.
• Prices were reported to have increased 1.3 percent in the first four months of the year and are expected to increase 0.8 percentage point for the rest of the year, for a total projected net annual increase of 2.1 percent.
• Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 1.5 percent during the rest of 2018.
• Non-manufacturing revenue is expected to increase 3.2 percent in 2018.
• The non-manufacturing sector is projected to have continued growth in 2018

The forecast was presented today by Timothy R. Fiore CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, SC.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.