Money & The Economy

Trump Effect: Manufacturing continues amazing expansion in September despite tariff concerns

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September along with the overall economy, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM Manufacturing report.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The September PMI® registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the August reading of 61.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 61.8 percent, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the August reading of 65.1 percent. The Production Index registered 63.9 percent, a 0.6 percentage point increase compared to the August reading of 63.3 percent. The Employment Index registered 58.8 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the August reading of 58.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.1 percent, a 3.4-percentage point decrease from the August reading of 64.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 53.3 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the August reading of 55.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 66.9 percent in September, a 5.2-percentage point decrease from the August reading of 72.1 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 31st consecutive month.

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength. Demand remains strong, with the New Orders Index at 60 percent or above for the 17th straight month, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining low. The Backlog of Orders Index continued to expand, but at lower levels compared to the previous month. Consumption improved, with production and employment continuing to expand, at higher levels compared to August, despite shortages in labor and materials. Inputs— expressed as supplier deliveries (decreased), inventories and imports — improved compared to prior month’s activity. But continued supply chain inefficiencies led to an increased consumption of inventory and a slight expansion of imports, which adequately supported production output.  Lead-time extensions, steel and aluminum disruptions, supplier labor issues, and transportation difficulties continue to limit potential, but at more manageable levels.

“Export orders expanded, but four major industries are no longer contributing. Price pressure continues, but the index softened for the fourth straight month and dropped below 70 for the first time since December 2017. Demand remains robust, but employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle, but to a lesser degree. Respondents are again overwhelmingly concerned about tariff-related activity, including how reciprocal tariffs will impact company revenue and current manufacturing locations,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 reported growth in September, in the following order: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The only industry reporting contraction in September is Primary Metals.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Business is strong and relatively stable. Tariffs are putting pressure on Chinese imports. Labor rates are increasing as it is very difficult to find help.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “The economy’s strength is holding, [and] outlook for the industry is positive, although continuing margin compression in consumer packaged goods is restricting general growth momentum from the greater economy.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Still extremely strong through November; starting to see a decline for steel prices for December.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “General available capacity at suppliers continues to decrease, creating supply issues.” (Machinery)
  • “Tariffs are creating a drag on some of our export opportunities.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Sourcing hourly workers for remote locations continues to be a challenge for both full-time and part-time opportunities. Have implemented a wide variety of recruiting techniques and suppliers to aid us in sourcing this hard-to-find talent.” (Paper Products)
  • “Orders are coming in, but from a limited number of customers. The future looks very promising.” (Primary Metals)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE

September 2018

Index

Series
Index

Sep

Series
Index

Aug

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend*
(Months)

PMI®

59.8

61.3

-1.5

Growing

Slower

25

New Orders

61.8

65.1

-3.3

Growing

Slower

33

Production

63.9

63.3

+0.6

Growing

Faster

25

Employment

58.8

58.5

+0.3

Growing

Faster

24

Supplier Deliveries

61.1

64.5

-3.4

Slowing

Slower

24

Inventories

53.3

55.4

-2.1

Growing

Slower

9

Customers’ Inventories

40.5

41.0

-0.5

Too Low

Faster

24

Prices

66.9

72.1

-5.2

Increasing

Slower

31

Backlog of Orders

55.7

57.5

-1.8

Growing

Slower

20

New Export Orders

56.0

55.2

+0.8

Growing

Faster

31

Imports

54.5

53.9

+0.6

Growing

Faster

20

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

113

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Slower

25

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (23); Aluminum Based Products (5); Corrugate (24); Electrical Components (2); Electronic Components (2); Freight (8); Hydrochloric Acid; Lumber (3); Nylon (4); Paper (5); Steel*; Steel — Stainless (6); Steel Based Products (5); and Sulfuric Acid.

Commodities Down in Price
Brass; Copper (3); Steel*; and Steel — Hot Rolled.

Commodities in Short Supply
Capacitors (15); Electronic Components (5); Freight (5); Labor (2); Nylon; Resistors (11); and Sulfuric Acid.

The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2018 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI®
Manufacturing expanded in September as the PMI® registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the August reading of 61.3 percent. “This indicates strong growth in manufacturing for the 25th consecutive month, led by strong production output, continued strength in new orders, and improvements in supply chain delivery performance, and better utilization of existing inventory accounts,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI® above 43.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September PMI® indicates growth for the 113th consecutive month in the overall economy and the 25th straight month of growth in the manufacturing sector. “The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for September (59.8 percent) corresponds to a 5.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

PMI®

Month

PMI®

Sep 2018

59.8

Mar 2018

59.3

Aug 2018

61.3

Feb 2018

60.8

Jul 2018

58.1

Jan 2018

59.1

Jun 2018

60.2

Dec 2017

59.3

May 2018

58.7

Nov 2017

58.2

Apr 2018

57.3

Oct 2017

58.5

Average for 12 months – 59.2

High – 61.3

Low – 57.3

New Orders
ISM®‘s New Orders Index registered 61.8 percent in September, which is a decrease of 3.3 percentage points when compared to the 65.1 percent reported for August, indicating growth in new orders for the 33rd consecutive month. “Customer demand expansion softened slightly this month but continued to expand at high levels, with the index at or above 60 percent for the 17th straight month,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Twelve of 18 industries reported growth in new orders in September, in the following order: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Transportation Equipment. The three industries reporting a decrease in new orders in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Fabricated Metal Products.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

31.4

57.7

10.9

+20.5

61.8

Aug 2018

35.4

54.3

10.3

+25.1

65.1

Jul 2018

29.0

60.1

10.9

+18.1

60.2

Jun 2018

39.7

53.0

7.3

+32.5

63.5

Production
ISM®‘s Production Index registered 63.9 percent in September, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to the 63.3 percent reported for August, indicating growth in production for the 25th consecutive month. “Production expansion continued in September, surpassing August expansion and resulting in the strongest gains since January 2018, when the index registered 64.5. Labor constraints throughout the supply chain, impacts due to lead-time expansions and transportation difficulties continue to limit full production potential,” says Fiore. An index above 51.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 14 industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment. No industry reported a decrease in production in September.

Production

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

33.6

56.7

9.6

+24.0

63.9

Aug 2018

35.3

53.8

10.9

+24.4

63.3

Jul 2018

31.5

52.6

15.9

+15.6

58.5

Jun 2018

38.7

51.0

10.3

+28.4

62.3

Employment
ISM®‘s Employment Index registered 58.8 percent in September, an increase of 0.3 percentage point when compared to the August reading of 58.5 percent. This indicates growth in employment in September for the 24th consecutive month. “Employment continued to expand, supporting production growth. The index achieved its highest level since February 2018, when it registered 59.7. Respondents continued to note labor-market issues as a constraint to their production and, more significantly, their suppliers’ production capability,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 12 reporting employment growth in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in employment in September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

26.1

62.9

11.0

+15.1

58.8

Aug 2018

26.6

63.6

9.8

+16.8

58.5

Jul 2018

27.1

61.2

11.7

+15.4

56.5

Jun 2018

29.0

59.6

11.3

+17.7

56.0

Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations slowed in September, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.1 percent. This is 3.4 percentage points lower than the 64.5 percent reported for August. “This is the 24th straight month of slowing supplier deliveries and indicates the supply chain’s difficulty in keeping up with new order and production demand. Lead times continue to extend, supply chain labor issues continue to restrict performance, and transportation issues are limiting supplier execution,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 13 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. No manufacturing industries reported faster supplier deliveries during the month of September.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Net

Index

Sep 2018

28.3

67.1

4.6

+23.7

61.1

Aug 2018

32.6

62.9

4.5

+28.1

64.5

Jul 2018

28.5

67.8

3.7

+24.8

62.1

Jun 2018

38.7

58.9

2.4

+36.3

68.2

Inventories*
The Inventories Index registered 53.3 percent in September, which is a decrease of 2.1 percentage points when compared to the 55.4 percent reported for August. “Inventories continued to expand for the ninth consecutive month. Supplier deliveries improved compared to the previous month, but inventories declined as a result of strong production output,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 43 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The 11 industries reporting higher inventories in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The three industries reporting a decrease in inventories in September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

20.6

65.4

14.0

+6.6

53.3

Aug 2018

25.2

60.4

14.5

+10.7

55.4

Jul 2018

22.3

61.9

15.8

+6.5

53.3

Jun 2018

20.7

60.2

19.1

+1.6

50.8

Customers’ Inventories*
ISM®‘s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 40.5 percent in September, which is 0.5 percentage point lower than the 41 percent reported for August, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered too low. “Customers’ inventory levels are too low for the 24th consecutive month, which continue to represent notable unmet demand in the near term,” says Fiore.

The only manufacturing industry that reported customers’ inventories as too high during the month of September is Transportation Equipment. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during September — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Six industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in September as compared with August.

Customers’
Inventories

%
Reporting

%Too
High

%About
Right

%Too
Low

Net

Index

Sep 2018

79

6.0

69.0

25.0

-19.0

40.5

Aug 2018

82

7.8

66.5

25.7

-17.9

41.0

Jul 2018

79

4.8

69.2

26.0

-21.2

39.4

Jun 2018

79

5.3

68.9

25.8

-20.6

39.7

Prices*
The ISM® Prices Index registered 66.9 percent in September, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from the August reading of 72.1 percent, indicating an increase in raw materials prices for the 31st consecutive month. In September, 42.3 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 8.6 percent reported paying lower prices, and 49.1 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in August. “The price increases across all industry sectors continue, but at lower expansion levels. The Business Survey Committee noted price increases softening in metals (all steels, steel components and aluminum). However, increases continue in various chemicals, corrugate and packaging products, freight, labor, electrical and electronic components, products manufactured primarily from steel, and paper products. Shortages continue in electrical and electronic components, labor, and freight. The index eased to its lowest expansion level since November 2017, when it registered 64.8 percent,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

Fifteen of the 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials in September, in the following order: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The two industries reporting a decrease in prices in September are: Primary Metals; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

42.3

49.1

8.6

+33.7

66.9

Aug 2018

51.1

42.0

6.8

+44.3

72.1

Jul 2018

54.6

37.3

8.1

+46.5

73.2

Jun 2018

56.9

39.9

3.3

+53.6

76.8

Backlog of Orders*
ISM®‘s Backlog of Orders Index registered 55.7 percent in September, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the 57.5 percent reported in August, indicating growth in order backlogs for the 20th consecutive month. “Backlogs continued to grow, but at slightly lower levels compared to August. Continued low levels of customer inventory and strong new order expansion continue to support production requirements in the near term,” says Fiore.

The 11 industries reporting growth in order backlogs in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs during September are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Backlog of
Orders

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

89

26.7

57.9

15.4

+11.3

55.7

Aug 2018

87

30.3

54.4

15.3

+15.0

57.5

Jul 2018

87

24.0

61.3

14.7

+9.3

54.7

Jun 2018

90

32.8

54.6

12.6

+20.2

60.1

New Export Orders*
ISM®‘s New Export Orders Index registered 56 percent in September, an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to the 55.2 percent reported for August, indicating growth in new export orders for 31 consecutive months. “Export Index remains strong, but only two of the six big industry sectors contributed during the period, down two from the previous month,” says Fiore.

The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in September are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Transportation Equipment. Ten industries reported no change in new export orders in September.

New Export
Orders

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

80

19.4

73.3

7.3

+12.1

56.0

Aug 2018

79

20.7

69.1

10.2

+10.5

55.2

Jul 2018

78

18.1

74.3

7.6

+10.5

55.3

Jun 2018

79

15.8

81.1

3.1

+12.6

56.3

Imports*
ISM®‘s Imports Index registered 54.5 percent in September, an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to the 53.9 percent reported for August, indicating that imports grew in September for the 20th consecutive month. “Imports continued to expand, but at 2.7 points lower than Q2 average levels,” says Fiore.

The nine industries reporting growth in imports during the month of September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer  & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Chemical Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports during September are: Primary Metals; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Imports

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

85

19.4

70.2

10.4

+9.0

54.5

Aug 2018

87

17.2

73.6

9.3

+7.9

53.9

Jul 2018

82

19.4

70.6

10.0

+9.4

54.7

Jun 2018

85

24.3

69.3

6.4

+17.9

59.0

*The Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased by three days in September to 147 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased by one day to 68 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased by one day to 34 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2018

19

7

10

19

23

22

147

Aug 2018

19

8

7

22

23

21

144

Jul 2018

23

7

9

15

28

18

137

Jun 2018

21

7

9

17

26

20

143

Production
Materials

Hand-to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2018

12

34

28

15

7

4

68

Aug 2018

11

36

27

14

8

4

69

Jul 2018

11

37

23

18

7

4

69

Jun 2018

11

33

29

16

7

4

69

MRO Supplies

Hand-to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2018

38

36

16

7

3

0

34

Aug 2018

41

37

15

4

2

1

33

Jul 2018

37

41

13

6

2

1

35

Jun 2018

36

43

14

5

2

0

31

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Carl Fox

Carl Fox is the senior money and finance writer for Conservative Daily News. Follow him in the "Money & The Economy" section at CDN and see his posts on the "Junior Economists" Facebook page.

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