Pollster Pat Caddell (Jimmy Carter) and Douglas Schoen (Bill Clinton) have asked President Barack Obama to step aside, to not run for reelection in 2012 for the good of the Democrat party. If Obama cannot run on his record, he will need to wage the most negative campaign in history to stand any chance of winning. With his job approval ratings below 45% overall (and below 40% on the economy), Obama cannot affirmatively make the case that voters are better off now than they were four years ago. He knows that they are worse off. The Democrat pollsters recommend Hillary Clinton. Mrs. Clinton, they say, is better positioned to win in 2012 than Obama, and that she is better positioned to govern if she does win.
Obama could still win re-election in 2012. But the kind of campaign required for his political survival would make it almost impossible for him to govern throughout a second term.
If Obama is not willing to step aside, then the two Democrat leaders in Congress, Sen. Harry Reid and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, must urge the president not to seek re-election – for the good of the party and (the pollsters say) most of all for the good of the country.
The Democrat pollsters also say that by seeking re-election and being heavily in partisan mode, Obama has guaranteed that the remainder of his term will be marred by the resentment and division that have eroded our national identity, common purpose, and economic strength. Mrs. Clinton, they say, has unique experience in government as first lady, senator, and Secretary of State. She is more qualified than any presidential candidate in recent memory. Her election would arguably be as historic an event as the election of President Obama in 2008.
There is almost no chance that Obama would take himself out of the race. But there are those in the Democrat Party, especially in legislative offices, who would fear a very bad election in 2012, if Obama’s popularity continues to decline. So, it is possible that pressure could be brought to bear on Obama next year to not seek reelection.
So get ready. The “Dump Obama, Draft Hillary” strategy has begun. There’s still time for Democrat party unhappiness with Obama and the growing fear of losing the White House and the Senate to scare them. The big money donors on both coasts will quietly go to Obama next spring, urge him to be a realist, and pull the plug on his reelection plans.
But that’s just my opinion.