Tag Archives: swing states

Swing State Voters: Obamacare Will Cost You $$

swing states 1

Three years after its passage the majority of Americans still are opposed to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).  A reelection of President Obama will assure that health care in America is forever changed. A vote for Mitt Romney will pave the way to repeal or change Obamacare.

The effects of Obamacare are far reaching and will impact every state. But with only a few days until the election let’s focus on the swing states.  Avik Roy is a writer for Forbes and has his work featured in other magazines, including the National Review. He is also an outside consultant for the Romney camp.  Recently, Roy has done a series of articles on the effects of Obamacare in swing states. His research comes from independent sources, in many cases,  hired by the states to help them prepare for the impact of Obamacare on residents.

The president and his team tout the Affordable Care plan as good because insurance companies now offer ‘free’ preventative tests. But because insurers are now required to provide these benefits the cost of insurance will go up. Additionally, it’s expected that young (and as a group more healthy) individuals may still choose to pay the low cost fine rather than enrolling leaving companies with the more sick and driving up the prices. It’s simple math.

Some defenders of Obamacare argue that these increased costs are outweighed because low income people will benefit from the new plan. Unfortunately, it appears that if you are only partially eligible for government subsidies (ie., the working poor) you may see dramatic increases in the cost of insurance.

Roy writes: I’ve been publishing a series of articles describing how Obamacare specifically affects people in swing states. In particular, I’ve compiled non-partisan studies — some even from an Obama adviser — that describe how the law will increase the cost of individually-purchased insurance, and how its blunt Medicare cuts will drive doctors out of the program. Here are some of the highlights:

Nevada

One non-partisan analysis found that by 2014, individual premiums in Nevada will increase by an average of 11 to 30 percent. In addition, Obamacare will deeply cut Medicare Advantage for more than 120,000 Nevada seniors enrolled in the program.

Florida

A new survey of physicians has found that 30 percent of doctors in Florida intend to place new or additional limits on accepting Medicare patients, with 27 percent altogether refusing to accept new Medicare patients, because of Obamacare’s impact on the fees that Medicare pays to providers of health-care services. In addition, Obamacare will deeply cut Medicare Advantage for 1.2 million Florida seniors who are enrolled in the program, and drive up the cost of private health coverage, especially for those who buy insurance on their own.

Wisconsin

Individual-market premiums will increase by 30 percent in 2016 relative to prior law. The Physicians Foundation survey, which polled physicians in every state, found that 27 percent of Wisconsin physicians would limit Medicare access under a fee cut, with 22 percent cutting off new Medicare patients.

Ohio

In a study by the actuarial firm Milliman found that Obamacare will increase individual-market premiums by 55 to 85 percent in 2017, relative to what they would have been under prior law. A survey by the Physicians Foundation found that, if Medicare cuts physician fees by another 10 percent, as Obamacare’s Independent Payment Advisory Board effectively requires, 30 percent of doctors will place “new or additional limits on Medicare acceptance,” with 24 percent accepting no new Medicare patients altogether.

 

If you are in a swing state and still wondering for whom to vote think about your pocket book. Health care reform is needed but the sweeping changes of Obamacare are more like using a butcher knife rather than a scalpel to repair the wound.

Vote November 6.

Campaigns Resume after Sandy

Romney and Obama debate

For the first time since monster storm Sandy threatened the northeast, the Presidential campaigns are back in full-swing. All the major players are in battleground states with the exception of President Obama who continues to visit the areas affected by storm damage from Sandy.

Mitt Romney is campaigning in Florida with Governor Jeb Bush while Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan is campaigning in Wisconsin. Romney and Ryan are hoping to capitalize on their accelerating momentum evident in recent battleground and independent voter polls.

Former President Bill Clinton is stumping for Obama in Iowa and Joe Biden is holding events in Florida hoping to stem the tide of likely voters moving towards Romney in the final days of the campaign.

The Obama campaign has spent tremendous amounts of time and money to get the Democratic base to the polls early while the Romney camp has focused on getting not-so-committed voters to vote in early polls. The effect these two different techniques has on the election may be critical.

By pulling in his most-committed voters for the early vote, Obama is front-loading his base to pad his early vote numbers. While this will pad early voter totals, it leaves the campaign hoping that less-motivated voters turn out for long lines on election day. The tactic is likely an attempt to create a false wave for bandwagon voters to jump into. Obama hasn’t seen any positive momentum in months and may be working to create the appearance of a turn-around in the week before the election.

Mitt Romney’s campaign has been working to get under-motivated voters to the polls for early voting. Shorter lines and the choice of several days to avoid inclimate weather give those voters fewer reasons to avoid the polls. Romney’s approach seems to be hinging on the idea that his base will turn out on election day no matter what, but others may not.

So far, Obama’s strategy is scoring him some numbers in Iowa – but, that’s it. Nationwide, Romney has a 51% to 46% likely voter advantage vs. Obama according to Gallup. In Ohio, the early voting numbers are about even between Republicans and Democrats and recent polls show Romney taking a slight lead in the Buckeye state by a 50% to 48% margin.

According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, voter registration totals as of October 22nd were 626,508 Republican, 621,401 Democrat and 686,649 unaffiliated. The largest voting block in the Hawkeye state is independents among whom Romney leads Obama by 16-20 points in recent polls. The Iowa Secretary of State’s office is also reporting that 531,996 people had voted through October 30th with Democrats casting 43.7% of the ballots vs. 32.2% by Republicans and 24% Independents.  The totals show that  232,462 Democrats, 171,272 and 127,620 Independents have voted so far. That leaves a much larger contingent of likely Romney voters yet to vote in the 2012 election. With up to 20% of independents leaning to Romney, the race in Iowa is still quite close and tipping towards Romney as election day approaches.

Romney’s momentum is carrying into early voting and voter enthusiasm is clearly in his favor, but the election will only go his way if all of the likely voters show up to vote.