Tag Archives: poll

Poll: CEOs Prefer Romney as GOP Candidate; Cain Rising Fast

GREENWICH, Conn., Oct. 17, 2011 — An exclusive poll shows CEOs prefer Mitt Romney as the GOP’s presidential candidate next November, according to ChiefExecutive.net. Over 43% of CEOs chose Romney as their preferred candidate while 25.6% chose another former CEO, Herman Cain. Jon Huntsman was third with 8.1% of CEO support.

“The support of CEOs provides a powerful endorsement in an election focused on economic revitalization and job creation,” says ChiefExecutive.net CEO Marshall Cooper. “In addition, CEOs carry immense influence and can typically tap powerful donor networks and their own cash for campaign contributions.”

In the Republican field, three candidates have CEO experience. Mitt Romney served as co-founder and general partner of Bain Capital, CEO of Bain & Company and CEO of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic Games Organizing Committee. Herman Cain served as CEO of Godfather’s Pizza. Jon Huntsman is the son of the founder of the multi-billion revenue
conglomerate Huntsman Corp. and served as CEO of his family’s investment company.

CEOs overwhelmingly believe that Romney will also appeal to the full Republican base as 79.2% believe he will eventually emerge as the GOP nominee. All other candidates trail far behind Romney – 10.3% think Perry is most likely to take the Republican nomination and 6.4% think Herman Cain will make his way onto the ballot.

Governor Perry’s favor has dropped significantly since ChiefExecutive.net’s September poll where 49.2% of CEOs thought Perry would take the nomination and 27.9% of CEOs
preferred Perry as the GOP’s presidential candidate. Perry serves as governor of Texas, which CEOs ranked as the best state for business in the Chief Executive’s 2011 Best/Worst
States for Business poll.

The ChiefExecutive.net poll surveyed active CEOs from Oct. 11-13 with 234 respondents.

Herman Cain Takes Commanding Lead in PPP National Poll

While Public Policy Polling’s Iowa results showed Cain up large (30-22 over Mitt Romney), he had yet to lead that widely on a national level – until today. PPP released their monthly poll which shows Cain over Romney by the same margin as the Iowa poll – 30-22.

Important to note is that this monthly poll concluded on the 10th –  one day before the debate.  Performances in last night’s debate had no impact on the results.

Cain’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are the best of all the candidates at 66% favorable and 15% unfavorable. Ron Paul had the worst unfavorable rating as 54% of respondents found Rep. Paul unfavorable and only 29% favorable. The only debate candidate with a worse favorable rating than Ron Paul was Jon Huntsman at 20%.

Newt Gingrich‘s slow slog to the front is continuing. His favorable numbers have grown to 57% while his unfavorable rating has dropped to 30%. That put him in the second place spot for favorability among candidates in the debate.

Of the debate participants, Mitt Romney had the third best favorable rating at 31% and tied for fourth in unfavorability with Jon Huntsman.

When asked if the leading candidates were too liberal, too conservative or just right, the respondents answered:

————— Too Liberal Just Right Too Conservative
Mitt Romney 31% 51% 5%
Rick Perry 17% 53% 14%
Herman Cain 6% 71% 8%

It appears that Cain is out-middling Mitt Romney by the results in the table. Being so set in the Goldie Locks zone, it might seem logical to assume that Tea Partiers may find Cain unappealing. Precisely the opposite, the poll shows that Herman Cain is enjoying a large portion of his following from those that consider the TEA parties favorably.

When the all important question of who would you vote for was asked:

If the Republican candidates for President were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ————-   5%
Herman Cain ——————–  30%
Newt Gingrich ——————- 15%
Jon Huntsman ——————- 2%
Gary Johnson ——————– 0%
Ron Paul ————————– 5%
Rick Perry ———————— 14%
Mitt Romney ——————–  22%
Rick Santorum ——————  1%
Someone else/Not sure ——-  6%

While the mainstream media is ready to crown Mitt Romney, the voters may have something to say about that.

 

Obama's Record Low & Matt Lauer's Sad Face

Today Show’s Matt Lauer had NBC’s Chief White House correspondent Chuck Todd on to discuss the very discouraging results of the latest NBC News/WSJ approval poll.  Lauer did his best to keep a stiff upper lip, but the disappointment was palpable.  And why not?  NBC’s own poll shows President Obama’s disapproval rating at a record high at 51%.  Even worse, 59% disapprove of his handling of the economy, although Todd does his best to deflect the miserable numbers by suggesting it was a “pretty pessimistic public” that they polled – as if the public’s pessimism and Obama’s dismal numbers are two mutually exclusive sentiments.  The most damning part of the poll – 73% think the country is headed in the wrong direction.  It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that every nation has a leader, and a leader leads, and if 73% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction that means 73% of Americans think the country is being led in the wrong direction.  This is basically a disapproval rating, and Todd and Lauer know it.  Kudos to Lauer and the Today Show for even airing the results of this poll, but maybe next time they can work on teaching Lauer not to look like he just got dumped by the prom queen when he’s reporting unfavorable Obama numbers.  Todd also deserves an honorable mention for pushing the “silver lining”, which is – Obama’s “likability” is still polling very high.  If only “likability” helped businesses hire more Americans.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

These are Not the Charts Obama is Looking For

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have completed surveys that show that the President is losing his bid for re-election with so many groups, so many ways and oh so quickly.

Gallup has the President sliding to just 38% approval, his worst showing ever in the Gallup survey. When looked at as a trend, the imagery worsens.

Rasmussen Reports also summed up their daily results saying, “This is the lowest Approval Index rating yet measured for President Obama. The previous low was -24 reached yesterday and also in September 2010. Additionally, the level of Strong Approval matches the lowest yet recorded.”

When digging into the numbers, the picture does not improve. To win an election in America, you have to win the swing vote. Obama hasn’t only lost the middle, has become the polarizing figure he railed against when he stood George W. Bush up as a straw man to beat in the 2008 election.

What should be especially of concern to the Obama campaign, is how even his attempts to buy votes is being rebuked. On August 18th, Obama’s Department of Homeland Security was directed to halt all deportation proceedings against illegal immigrants who are attending school, have family in the military or are primarily responsible for other family members’ care, and allow them to apply for work permits. Obama had failed to deliver the highly unpopular DREAM act and may have been hoping to buy-off the Hispanic community with a the gift of not enforcing current law. How did that community react? Unfavorably.

Presidential job approval is an important barometer, but with the entirety of the main stream media declaring the Republican field “weak”, certainly this won’t hurt his chances for another four years in the White House.. or will it?

Even Ron Paul, largely thought to be a fringe candidate, is only a few points under Obama in the polls and within the survey’s margin of error. Obama is in trouble whether he admits it or not.

Attack after mudslinging attack isn’t working, the president’s policies are failing and a string of broken promises may be coming home to roost.

 

 

Is Gallup Showing a Bias for Obama?

On Friday, Gallup posted a report that tried to downplay Obama’s abysmal approval rating. This and another recent post show that the pollster may not be as unbiased as they would have Americans believe.

In an article entitled “As Economic Confidence Drops, Obama Approval Fairly Stable”, Gallup’s Frank Newport makes the assertion that although Obama’s approval rating has dropped yet another 4 percentage points to 42%, the economic confidence index has dropped further and faster.

The logic Mr. Newport is trying to use is that even though Americans are losing faith in the ability of the economy to turn around, they don’t seem to be blaming Obama – nothing could be further from the truth.

First, Obama’s approval rating dropped another point to 41% today. It is now 1 point from his 52-week low of 40% and the trend is clearly down.

Second, the reason why there is not a one-for-one correlation between the confidence index and the approval rating is that there are hard-line left-wing supporters of the President that would support him no matter what. So while they would have no trouble saying that the economy is in trouble, the Obama faithful would still show their approval of him.

What should be even more concerning to the President’s re-election effort is how he compares to his predecessor, George W. Bush. After 928 days in office Bush was at 60% approval while Obama was at 42%. At the end of Bush’s stay in office his approval rating was still 10 points higher than the currently struggling Obama.

One article does not a standard set. Gallup supplied more. On August 8th, another post with the title “Obama Job Approval 50% or Higher in 16 States and D.C.” was published. While watching his ratings sink, the pollster uses the title to spin a positive message out of an obviously terrible one.

D.C. isn’t a state, but it does get 3 electoral votes as set forth in the 23rd amendment to the Constitution so there is some latitude to be given for their error. Using D.C. as a state helps to paint a better picture for the President – he has 17 states instead of 16 that hold a favorable rating of the President. Percentage wise, the numbers aren’t that different, but the perception is the key. People see “top ten states” knowing that there are 50 states and they don’t read the details to see how Gallup found an extra state for the President. It makes for a slightly more favorable statement than actual fact would have. If we use Gallup’s logic, there are now 51 states – only 6 short of Obama’s count.

The post continues by trying to make the same assertion as the first article:

Obama’s national half-year average approval rating of 47% matches his average nationwide approval rating for all of 2010. As such, there has been little meaningful change since 2010 in his ratings at the state level as well.

The pollster has no concern that Obama is down significantly in August from his previous half-year rating. Further, a demonstrated bias appears in the “implications” section of the report.

a key for Obama is to try to push his national approval rating back above the 50% mark before November 2012, and to have it at or above that level in as many states as possible, given that the presidential election will be determined by the winner of the greater number of state electoral votes.

Is Gallup showing a bias towards Obama? Number are numbers, but as they say, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

GOP Over Dems in One Generic Ballot – Reversed in Another

Gallup released a poll demonstrating that Democrats were favored over Republicans by 51% to 44% margin. Just four days ago, Rasmussen Reports released a similar poll that showed the opposite result.

Gallup also painted the results in a favorable light for Democrats by comparing the new results to those in the last two election cycles.

Gallup’s first measure of the 2012 congressional elections shows Democrats with a slight lead over Republicans, 51% to 44%, among registered voters nationally — better than they generally fared in 2010 but worse than in the prior two congressional cycles.

Rasmussen’s poll report takes uses more balanced and realistic language in sharing their results.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. The GOP led by four points a week ago.

So why the difference? While some of the polling analysis we’ve done in the past has taken deep dives into the questions asked and perusing table after table of results, this analysis was easy – it’s who they asked that makes the difference.

Gallup chose to poll registered voters. It didn’t matter if they’d ever filled in a ballot in their life, their answer counted. With motor-voter in-place, all one has to do is say “yes” at driver’s license time and they’re registered.

Rasmussen sought to understand what might happen if an election were held now. Their sample came only from “likely voters” – people who would actually go to the polls and mark up a ballot.

President Obama Would Lose if Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani Was the Nominee

Republican field problem is one of recognition – most are unknown

NEW YORK, July 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ – By this time next summer the Republican candidate who will challenge President Obama will be known but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalized. With the “will-he-or-she-run-questions” still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.

Obviously because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani, both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Even among Republicans, many declared candidates do not have majorities familiar with them. Tim Pawlenty (33%), Rick Santorum (31%), Herman Cain (29%), and Jon Huntsman (15%) all have one-third of Republicans or less familiar with them.

With this in mind, it’s not surprising then that among Republicans over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul(5%). Among Independents there is a three tie for “first place” between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney(10%) and Ron Paul (10%).  But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.

Against President Obama

Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time.  President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.

So What?

Right now the Republican party needs to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.

TABLE 1AREPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY“How familiar are you with each of the following people?”

Base: All adults

Familiar (NET) Very familiar Somewhat familiar Not familiar (NET) Not very familiar Not at all familiar
% % % % % %
Sarah Palin 86 48 38 14 8 5
Rudy Giuliani 75 37 39 25 11 14
Newt Gingrich 72 35 37 28 14 13
Mitt Romney 67 29 38 33 16 16
Ron Paul 52 19 33 48 21 27
Michele Bachmann 50 19 31 50 18 32
Rick Perry 30 13 17 70 20 50
Tim Pawlenty 28 9 19 72 22 50
Rick Santorum 28 10 18 72 20 52
Herman Cain 22 7 15 78 18 60
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 15 4 11 85 22 63
Gary Johnson 8 3 5 92 18 74
Thaddeus McCotter 8 3 5 92 15 77
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 1BREPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY“How familiar are you with each of the following people?”

Summary of those saying “Very familiar” or “Somewhat familiar”

Base: All adults

Total Party ID Philosophy
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % %
Sarah Palin 86 88 89 89 85 86 91
Rudy Giuliani 75 77 77 78 74 74 80
Newt Gingrich 72 76 74 76 76 69 74
Mitt Romney 67 74 65 73 69 65 70
Ron Paul 52 55 50 60 54 48 59
Michele Bachmann 50 50 50 55 53 43 59
Rick Perry 30 38 26 30 37 26 29
Tim Pawlenty 28 33 25 33 32 25 33
Rick Santorum 28 31 27 32 33 23 32
Herman Cain 22 29 17 25 32 16 21
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 15 15 17 16 17 11 23
Gary Johnson 8 11 7 8 9 7 8
Thaddeus McCotter 8 8 7 8 6 8 7
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION“If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Total March 2011 Total May 2011 Total July 2011 Party ID Philosophy
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % % % %
Rudy Giuliani 8 8 11 14 11 10 10 12 13
Mitt Romney 10 10 11 14 12 10 11 11 13
Sarah Palin 7 5 8 12 7 5 9 8 7
Ron Paul NA 6 7 5 5 10 6 6 8
Rick Perry NA NA 5 8 1 6 10 2 2
Michele Bachmann 2 2 4 6 2 6 8 3 2
Jon Huntsman, Jr. NA 1 3 2 4 2 1 2 9
Herman Cain NA 2 3 4 1 4 5 3 1
Tim Pawlenty 2 2 1 4 * 1 3 1 *
Newt Gingrich 5 4 1 3 * 1 3 * 1
Rick Santorum 1 * 1 1 1 * 1 1 *
Thaddeus McCotter NA NA * * * 1 * 1 *
Gary Johnson NA 1 * * 1 * 1 * *
Not at all sure 45 42 44 28 53 42 34 51 44
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.
TABLE 3A2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICANCANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA

“Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the

Republican nominee running against President Obama in the

2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Would vote for
PresidentObama TheRepublicannominee
% %
Thaddeus McCotter 57 43
Gary Johnson 56 44
Herman Cain 56 44
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 55 45
Rick Santorum 55 45
Rick Perry 54 46
Michele Bachmann 54 46
Tim Pawlenty 54 46
Newt Gingrich 54 46
Sarah Palin 54 46
Ron Paul 50 50
Mitt Romney 49 51
Rudy Giuliani 47 53
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3B2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA“Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?”

Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee

Base: All adults

Total March 2011 Total May 2011 Total July 2011 Party ID Philosophy TeaPartySupport
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % % % % %
Rudy Giuliani 51 51 53 89 24 56 84 48 19 87
Mitt Romney 49 49 51 87 21 55 84 45 19 87
Ron Paul NA 45 50 83 18 57 82 42 19 85
Sarah Palin 42 42 46 79 20 48 78 40 13 83
Newt Gingrich 44 44 46 82 15 49 81 37 15 82
Tim Pawlenty 44 42 46 83 15 49 80 38 13 83
Michele Bachmann 41 42 46 81 18 49 79 39 13 83
Rick Perry NA NA 46 82 17 48 80 38 14 84
Rick Santorum 43 43 45 81 15 48 79 37 14 83
Jon Huntsman, Jr. NA 41 45 81 16 46 77 37 14 81
Herman Cain NA 41 44 79 15 46 77 37 12 81
Gary Johnson NA 43 44 80 15 45 78 36 12 80
Thaddeus McCotter NA NA 43 79 15 44 77 36 12 80
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in th at poll.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J40488
Q1218, 1225, 1230, 1240, 1250

The Harris Poll ® #87, July 26, 2011 
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

Obama: 80% Favor Balanced Approach [Fact Check]

Obama reiterated several times in this morning’s presser that 80% of voters favored a balanced approach to the debt problem. The President’s idea of a balanced approach is equal tax hikes and budget cuts. Unfortunately, there isn’t a single poll to support his delusion.

A Rasumussen Report poll indicates that only 45% would favor tax increasese in the debt ceiling deal. Reading into the poll further and statistics show that mainstream voters oppose tax hikes in the debt deal by a 68%-22% margin. That would indicate that only 32% of mainstream Americans would like to see tax hikes in the budget deal at all. So where did President Obama get the magic 80% number he spouted so often this morning? Revisionist use of a Gallup Poll:

Americans do not favor a balanced approachObama took the reverse view of the first statistic. While worded to downplay tax hikes, the poll gives a result that 20% of respondents would favor a budget deal with only spending cuts in it. So Obama took the reverse and said that 80% favor a balanced approach (equal tax and cut). Unfortunately, the very poll he sought to use tells a different story. Only 32% of Americans said they favor equal tax hikes and spending cuts. And the poll also shows that 50% of respondents want only/mostly a deal with spending cuts. Less than 12% want a deal with only/mostly tax hikes.

Then again, the Obama administration has said that most Americans don’t pay attention to this debt ceiling stuff. A recent poll says otherwise:

Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters are following the debt ceiling story at least Somewhat Closely. That figure includes 48% who are following it Very Closely. Older voters are following the story more closely than younger voters.

Obama is once again painting a false picture in hopes that Americans will believe it enough to make it true. Most voters do NOT want job-killing tax hikes in the budget deal. Most of us ARE paying attention to the debt ceiling talks. And finally, Mr. President, most voters don’t like you very much right now (polls actually back that assertion up).

Three-Quarters of Americans Give President Obama Negative Ratings on His Handling of Jobs

Three-Quarters of Americans Give President Obama Negative Ratings on His Handling of Jobs

Majorities also give the President negative marks on his handling of healthcare, the environment, unrest in the Middle East and education

NEW YORK, June 29, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — President Obama has seen his overall job rating drop this month as well as his rating on how he is handling the economy. And, when looking at some other specific issues, the downward trend continues. In February of this year, just three in ten Americans (29%) gave President Obama positive ratings on his handling of jobs. Now one-quarter do (24%) while almost half (46%) give the President a rating of poor, The Harris Poll’s lowest rating.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,163 adults surveyed online between June 13 and 20, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Three in five Americans give the President negative ratings on his handling of education (61%) and healthcare (63%) while just 34% give him positive ratings on both areas. In February, just under two in five U.S. adults gave the President positive marks on education (39%) and healthcare (37%). On the environment, over half (56%) give President Obama negative ratings while 37% give him positive ratings and on his handling of the unrest in the Middle East, 57% give him negative marks and 38% give him positive ratings. In February, two in five Americans gave the President positive ratings on his handling of both the unrest in the Middle East (39%) and the environment (41%).

Partisan support

Among Republicans, the President’s best numbers are on his handling of the environment where 13% give him positive ratings. For Democrats, three in five or more give him positive ratings on his handling of the unrest in the Middle East (65%), the environment (63%), healthcare (63%), and education (60%). But only two in five Democrats (42%) give the President positive ratings on how he is handling the issue of jobs.

Independents, who typically decide elections, are not happy with the President’s handling of these issues. Only one-third (34%) give him positive ratings on how he has handled the unrest in the Middle East while three in ten give him positive ratings in his handling of the environment (31%), healthcare (31%) and education (30%). The lowest rating is on his handling of jobs where just 19% of Independents give President Obama positive marks.

So What?

Foreign policy wins are nice for a president as are winning on big domestic issues such as healthcare or the environment. But these are not things Americans typically vote on come Election Day. Come November, what people tend to think about is how they feel, compared to the same time 4 years previously. As Ronald Reagan once asked, “Are you better than you were four years ago?” President Obama has a little over a year before the answer to that question really matters but if it were asked now, based on how they see his handling of a key issue such as jobs, Americans may say no and vote accordingly.

 

Why 2012 Must be a Referendum on Obama’s Policies

Obama referendumWhen CNN’s John King asked Former Obama advisor David Axelrod about the 2012 election, Axelrod answered that that the election would not be a referendum on Obama, but a choice between Obama and his opponents.

Part of his statement is correct, the part of the election being a choice. As far as a referendum – you, Mr. Axelrod, are delusional.

First, we have to understand what is meant by “referendum”.

referendum /ˌrɛfəˈrɛndəm/

▶noun (pl. referendums or referenda /-də/)a general vote by the electorate on a single political question which has been referred to them for a direct decision.[1]

How is any election not a referendum? Does Axelrod not believe that the choice of our leaders is not a political question referred to the electorate for a decision? Of course he does. What he is trying to do is change the political question from being about Obama, to being about the policies of Conservative Republicans.

Moderates and Conservatives are starting to believe that the choice is already made. President Obama needs to be replaced, now we just need to decide who his replacement should be. Axelrod knows that if the election is kept on that footing Obama is toast. In Rasmussen’s latest presidential tracking poll, 23% strongly approve of Obama’s performance while 38% strong disapprove.

Soon, the phraseology will be how Republicans caused the current economic mess. Nancy Pelosi has already tried to blame the massive mess the House of Representatives created under her leadership on John Boehner.

What Conservatives must do is realize the goal. Ultimately, we must not repeat the mistake of the 1992 and 1996 elections where H. Ross Perot was allowed to split the GOP vote and put a Republican loss in motion. In the 1992 Presidential election it is well-known that the independent candidate caused the election of the otherwise unknown governor of Arkansas: Bill Clinton. Clinton got 43%, Bush got 37.4% and Perot took 18.9%. Not only that, but many states that gave electoral votes to Clinton would have shifted to Bush had the vote not been split. Whether gauging it on popular vote or electoral college, a split right is a win for the left.

Could it happen again? Unequivocally YES! A separate poll from Rasmussen shows that a split vote will be an advantage to the left-wing of the American political spectrum.

..in a three-way congressional contest with a Tea Party candidate on the ballot, the Democrat picks up 40% of the vote. The Republican earns 21% support, while nearly as many (18%) favor the Tea Party candidate. Twenty-one percent (21%), however, remain undecided.

If Conservatives are split or confused, the election is lost. If instead, we realize that getting a president with extreme left-wing ideas out of the White House is the highest goal, we have a chance. According to this poll, if the Tea Party Conservatives and Republican voters ban together, we have to only inform slightly more than half of the undecided voters that this is a vote on Obama’s failures. If we split the vote, it doesn’t matter how convincing we are – we get another four years of government over-reach. Obamacare will be full implemented, a balanced budget will never happen, business will continue to leave in the face of centrally-managed oppression and American may well become unrecognizable as the leader of the free world.

We may see Trump come out of the shadows. Maybe some other candidate, once defeated in the primary, pulls a Murkowski and comes back as an independent. Both show selfishness and greed for power – not a heart to do the will of the people. If that happens, we must not fall into the trap the Alaskan voters did. Conservatives must rally around the winner of the primaries in order to defeat the most dangerous president in American history.

“Perfect is the enemy of good” – Francois-Marie Arouet (a.k.a. Voltaire)

 

Sources:
1 –  Wordreference.com: http://www.wordreference.com/definition/referendum

Majority of Americans Do Not Trust President Obama or His Economic Advisors to Handle Budget Deficit

NEW YORK, May 31, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — The issue of the budget deficit is one that many people know exists, but are not exactly clear on how it should be handled. And, when it comes to who among elected officials they would trust to handle the deficit, it turns out majorities of Americans would not trust any of these people or groups: just over half of Americans (51%) do not trust President Obama to handle the budget deficit (while 49% do) and over half of U.S. adults (56%) do not trust the President’s economic advisors.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,184 adults surveyed online between May 9 and 16, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Those in Congress fare even worse. Two-thirds of Americans say they do not trust Republicans (65%) or Democrats (66%) in Congress to handle the deficit. The highest elected Republican official, Speaker of the House John Boehner, does just as poorly as 65% say they do not trust him to handle the budget deficit.

Partisan differences

Depending on which political party one belongs to, they may be more likely to have greater trust levels on this issue. More than four in five Democrats (83%) trust President Obama to handle the deficit while three-quarters (76%) trust his advisors and almost two-thirds (64%) trust Democrats in Congress. Looking at Republicans, not surprisingly, over two-thirds (68%) trust Republicans in Congress and over half (55%) trust Speaker Boehner to handle the budget deficit. Independents, however, do not trust anyone. Just two in five trust President Obama (43%), 36% trust his economic advisors, 31% trust Speaker Boehner, 28% trust Republicans in Congress and 22% trust Democrats in Congress.

Income differences

There are also some differences by household income.  Just over half of those with a household income of under $35,000 a year (51%) and over $100,000 a year (52%) say they trust President Obama on the budget deficit. Those in the highest income bracket are also more likely to trust the President’s economic advisors (49%), Republicans in Congress (41%) and the Speaker of the House (40%) to handle the budget deficit. Those in the lowest income bracket are more likely to trust Democrats in Congress (41%) to handle the deficit.

So What?

The budget deficit is a serious issue that is not going away and may become even more prominent over the summer with the debate over the debt ceiling. The American public is looking for someone they trust on this and, at the moment, elected officials are not filling that void. This could be a chance for a Republican presidential candidate to stand out from the other GOP hopefuls as well as from those currently in power if he or she presents a plan people can trust.

No Bounce for President Obama on Economic Job Ratings

NEW YORK, May 24, 2011 /PRNewswire/ – While his overall job rating may have gone up after the death of Osama Bin Laden, President Obama’s economic job rating has not seen the same bounce. Just one-third of Americans (32%) give him positive ratings on the overall job he is doing on the economy while almost seven in ten (68%) give him negative ratings. This is only a slight change from March when 33% gave the President positive marks on the economy and 67% gave him negative ratings.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,184 adults surveyed online between May 9 and 16, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Much of the reason behind these negative numbers is the overall sense the economy is bad. Three in five Americans (59%) say the economic conditions in their region of the country are bad, one-quarter (23%) say they are neither good nor bad and fewer than one in five (18%) say they are good. While this isn’t good, it is better from the height of the economic crisis when in January 2009 almost three-quarters of Americans (72%) said the economic conditions of their region of the country were bad. In terms of the different regions the Midwest seems to be the worst as almost two-thirds (64%) say the conditions in their region are bad.

Jobs

The one thing that everyone is watching closely with this economic recovery is when the job market will also start to rebound. While Americans may still rate the job market as overall bad, this is the “best” the feelings towards employment have been since 2008. Currently, three in five U.S. adults (61%) say the current job market in their region of the nation is bad, while almost one-quarter (23%) say it is neither good nor bad and 16% say it is good. In March, almost two-thirds of Americans (65%) said the job market was bad and 13% said it was good.

Looking ahead for the job market, three in ten U.S. adults (30%) expect the job market to be better over the next six months while one in five (21%) say it will be worse and half (49%) believe it will remain the same. In March, one third of Americans (32%) thought the job market would be better in the next six months and 16% believed it would be worse.

So What?

Jobs and the economy remain to be top concerns for Americans and until these turn around in their mind, nothing else will be able to rise to the top. Attitudes on this issue have been holding steady for a while now but they have been holding steady in a negative light. The hope for the White House is that the economy and job market turns around and they, and President Obama, get the credit for that turnaround in time for next November’s election.

 

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