Biden’s new debate coach is not an improvement over John Kerry.

What does it say about a campaign when its hope for putting a stop to a precipitous decline in the polls is Joe Biden? Last night fireman Joe was at his pompous, bloviating best in the Vice President Debate with Cong. Paul Ryan. The most memorable line in his paper thin, fact–free rebuttals came when Biden looked directly at the camera and asked viewers, “Who are you going to believe? Me, or your lying eyes?”

Earlier in the week Obama staffers were trying to pin the blame for the current President’s poor showing on John Kerry’s debate preparation, but I don’t think replacing Kerry with the Cheshire Cat was much of an improvement. In the split–screen shots Biden looked like a dirty old man staring at an elementary school swing set as he leered and grinned during Ryan’s answers.

When he wasn’t interrupting and talking over Ryan, Biden was muttering and chuckling to himself like Gollum in the underground lake. I suggest that whoever posts these clips on YouTube use Aqualung as the background music.

The only time I had any sympathy for “Good Old Joe” was when the camera showed a view of the back of his head and you could see where even his hair implants were thinning.

Believe it or not Biden took a full six days off the campaign trail just to prepare for the debate. To put this in perspective, Jesus didn’t require six days to prepare for the crucifixion.

Presumably the first three days of preparation were devoted to words Joe wasn’t supposed to say including but not limited to: gay, marriage, chains, crushed, taxes, jobs, 7/11, Slurpee, f–ing, deal, articulate, bright and clean. And the last three days to words he should say. In fact, according to a report in the Daily Mail, Joe was programmed with hand–me–down one–liners that Obama refused to use on Romney.

Fortunately, since the debate was held before a mixed audience, Biden did not have to adopt with the black dialect Obama affects when he’s speaking exclusively to minorities. Biden got to keep all his ‘g’s and was not be required to use “folks.”

The process wasn’t brainwashing per se, but it required at least a light rinse.

And somewhere during all this preparation Joe found time to rent a floor polisher so he could buff his teeth.

This focus on Biden brings back memories doesn’t it? Joe was added to the team for his “extensive foreign policy experience” and his “long term Washington expertise.” Yes, 69–year–old Joe was cashing a government paycheck and sticking his foot in his mouth at time when the 42–year­–old Ryan had to be content with his thumb.

This is why conservative columnists hav alwayse been grateful Biden is the white guy.

Last night while showing off his expertise, Biden claimed the US is Israel’s best friend and that Obama and Netanyahu have personally met 12 times. Both are lies: Obama pledged to create some distance from Israel and the two have met nine times.

“Foreign Policy” Joe stated emphatically that the consulate in Libya had not asked for additional security, intelligence experts did not warn of an attack and that he knows from security briefings that Iran is a long way from getting an atomic bomb.

Unfortunately Ryan failed to point out that Thursday’s Washington Post had printed the emails asking for additional security at the consulate and he failed to ask Biden if the “intelligence experts” who assured him Iran is a long way from the bomb are the same ones who promised him the Libyan consulate was in no danger.

After Romney won the first debate so decisively, one would have thought MSM coverage of the VP event would be reality–based. But that’s not so, the media remains an Obama co–conspirator. CNN reported its own poll of debate watchers “a draw.”

Yet the graph clearly shows Ryan won 48 percent to 44 percent. What’s more, 28 percent of viewers said the debate made them more likely to vote for Romney compared to the 21 percent who said they were more likely to vote for Obama. And Ryan was judged more likeable than both “Public Trough” Joe & Big Bird by 53 percent to 43 percent, both of the latter being outside the margin of error.

And a pathetic AP reporter by the name of Jocelyn Noveck claimed, “the vice president also came up with the two catchiest phrases of the night – “bunch of malarkey” and “bunch of stuff.” Both of which are trite and ancient.

Fortunately, participants in a Luntz debate focus group that — was not on the MSM or Obama campaign payroll — felt Biden was “arrogant.” Personally, I thought that if Joe had a few feathers he could play Foghorn Leghorn.

The best part about the debate was viewers now realize to their horror that a lying boastful buffoon is a heartbeat away from a President that is helpless without a teleprompter.

Or as Barbara Schribner wrote: Now we can put a set of teeth on the empty chair.

Is the economy improving?

The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (POS), surveyed 800 small business owners, manufacturers and decision-makers at small and medium-sized companies, with a majority (55 percent) saying the national economy is in a worse position compared to three years ago. Among the chief factors survey respondents cited were federal regulations, taxes, government spending and the cost of health insurance and energy.

Key survey findings include the following:

• 67 percent say there is too much uncertainty in the market today to expand, grow or hire new workers.
• 69 percent of small business owners and manufacturers say President Obama’s Executive Branch and regulatory policies have hurt American small businesses and manufacturers.
• 55 percent say they would not start a business today given what they know now and in the current environment.
• 54 percent say other countries like China and India are more supportive of their small businesses and manufacturers than the United States.

“Manufacturers have told policymakers in Washington time and again that uncertainty and a negative business environment is turning the American Dream into a nightmare,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “The findings of this survey show that manufacturers and other small businesses have a starkly negative outlook for their future—with good reason. There is far too much uncertainty, too many burdensome regulations and too few policymakers willing to put aside their egos and fulfill their responsibilities to the American people. To fix this problem, we need immediate action on pro-growth tax and regulatory policies that put manufacturers in the United States in a position to compete and succeed in an ever-more competitive global economy.”

NFIB President and CEO Dan Danner said, “The small businesses who are the engine of our economy are clamoring for their elected representatives to stand up and lead so they can focus on the business of getting America back on its feet. Yet, instead of smoothing the way, our government continues to erect more barriers to growth through burdensome regulations that increase costs for small businesses and all Americans. It’s time Washington started listening to America’s job creators and offered real solutions to help us back to prosperity.”

Bill McInturff of POS said, “The data in this survey offer a striking picture of how American businesses view the current state of the U.S. economy. It’s clear that small business owners and manufacturers are becoming increasingly more frustrated by the federal government’s inability to solve America’s economic problems. Manufacturers place most of the blame squarely on policies coming out of Washington.”

Statistically, the polling of “zero” for Mitt Romney doesn’t even make any sense. Even if only one black person, say, Thomas Sowell, planned on voting for Mitt Romney, the statistic should be represented as <1%.

Apparently the poll “was conducted of 1,000 registered voters (300 reached by cell phone) from Aug. 16-20, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.” Did the “professionals” at NBC/WSJ even leave their own office buildings to conduct this poll? Who on earth were they polling? The White House Press Corps? The results of this poll say a lot more about NBC and WSJ then they do about Black voters. It’s one thing to take the poll, it’s quite another to publish it. NBC should have scrapped that garbage the second they got the results. As much time as the talking heads at MSNBC spend degrading Black conservatives, they OUGHT TO KNOW BETTER! Even just one view of my viral video response to their own Touré would be enough to prove that poll is complete bunk.

Sonnie Johnson, Alfonzo Rachel, Star Parker, Thomas Sowell, Walter Williams…these are just a few Black Americans who support Romney. They are the more well-known names but there are thousands of us, too many to mention here. Most aren’t even political pundits. Many are folks who voted for Obama in ’08 and have been disappointed with his leadership or turned off by his public statements on issues that are important to the Black community, like illegal immigration and gay marriage; and one need not even look very hard to find these people!

Is there any more question as to the reliability/integrity of the mainstream media?

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BELLEVUE, Wash., June 15, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — A new Rasmussen poll showing only 27 percent support for Attorney General Eric Holder keeping his job, while 73 percent are either in favor of his resignation or undecided, is a clear message that Holder should step down, the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms said today.

There is one important caveat, noted CCRKBA Chairman Alan Gottlieb. Before Holder leaves, he needs to surrender all documents relating to the Fast and Furious scandal to Congressman Darrell Issa and the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

“If Eric Holder steps down, that doesn’t mean he gets to walk away from this fiasco,” Gottlieb observed. “He doesn’t get to go home and write his memoirs, and he doesn’t get to just put all of this in his rear view mirror. He needs to comply fully with the subpoena, even if it means trouble for his subordinates, or his boss’ re-election campaign.

“The American public deserves answers,” he added, “and particularly, the family of slain Border Patrol agent Brian Terry deserves those answers. We cannot get those answers until the documents are turned over.”

The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of this week, and released Friday morning. It has a +/- 3 percentage point sampling error. It comes as Holder is trying to head off a looming Oversight Committee vote on whether to hold him in contempt of Congress for withholding thousands of subpoenaed documents relating to the Fast and Furious investigation. The Rasmussen survey revealed that 40 percent of those contacted are in favor of Holder stepping down. Another 33 percent are undecided, but that leaves barely a quarter of the public in favor of Holder’s continued service as attorney general.

“Holder needs to go,” Gottlieb said, “but not before Congress and the American people are allowed to learn the truth about this disturbing operation.”

With more than 650,000 members and supporters nationwide, the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms (www.ccrkba.org) is one of the nation’s premier gun rights organizations. As a non-profit organization, the Citizens Committee is dedicated to preserving firearms freedoms through active lobbying of elected officials and facilitating grass-roots organization of gun rights activists in local communities throughout the United States.

Based on all the responses to this poll we calculate the Harris Confidence Index. This year, the Index has gone up to 49 after falling to 48 last year, but still down from 53 in 2010 and 54 in 2009.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,060 adults surveyed by telephone and online between April 9 and 17, 2012 by Harris Interactive.

Some of the main findings of this Harris Poll are:

• At the top of the list, i.e. the largest numbers of people have a great deal of confidence in them, are the leaders of the military (55%) and small business (50%), far ahead of any of the other leaders on the list. These numbers have not changed significantly over the last three years;
• Also high on the list, but substantially lower, are the leaders of medicine (34%), and colleges and universities (30%);
• Not quite at the bottom of the list, but below the top institutions are the U.S. Supreme Court (27%, which is up from 24% last year), organized religion (23%), the White House (22% which is up from 19% last year), and public schools (21%); and,
• At the bottom of the list, leaders in whom the public has the least confidence are Congress (6%), Wall Street (7%), the press (11%), law firms (11%), major companies (15%), organized labor (16%) television news (17%) and the courts and the justice system (19%).

So what?

While the confidence index rose one point and a couple of institutions saw small gains, very little has changed from last year. “The American public continues to be disgusted with the shenanigans of Congress and Wall Street,” says Robert Fronk, EVP Reputation Management at Harris Interactive. “Forgiveness and respect will not return easily for these two entities.” The stabilization in confidence is clearly a better outcome than the slide seen in the previous 3 years, but many of the institutions that form the backbone of our nation continue to be perceived as lacking in leadership, which does not bode well in the short term for our nation.

TABLE 1
CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (2011)
“As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?”

Base: All Adults

	A Great Deal of Confidence	Only some Confidence	Hardly Any Confidence At All	Not Sure/Decline to Answer
	%	%	%	%
The military	55	33	8	4
Small business	50	38	7	5
Medicine	34	43	18	5
Major educational institutions, such as colleges and universities	30	47	19	4
The U.S. Supreme Court	27	50	18	5
Organized religion	23	38	30	8
The White House	22	40	34	4
Public schools	21	48	27	4
The courts and the justice system	19	54	23	4
Television news	17	48	31	4
Organized labor	16	42	35	7
Major companies	15	55	25	5
Law firms	12	51	30	8
The press	11	46	39	4
Wall Street	7	39	48	6
Congress	6	42	48	4

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2A
CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (2001-2012)
“As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?”
Those saying “A great deal of confidence”

Base: All Adults

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Change 2011- 2012
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	44	71	62	62	47	47	46	51	58	59	57	55	-2
Small business	X	X	X	X	47	45	54	47	48	50	50	50	0
Medicine	32	29	31	32	29	31	37	28	34	34	33	34	+1
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	35	33	31	37	39	38	37	32	40	35	30	30	0
The U.S. Supreme Court	35	41	34	29	29	33	27	25	28	31	24	27	+3
Organized religion	25	23	19	27	27	30	27	25	30	26	24	23	-1
The White House	21	50	40	31	31	25	22	15	36	27	19	22	+3
Public schools	X	X	X	X	26	22	22	20	25	22	20	21	+1
The courts and the justice system	X	X	X	X	22	21	21	16	19	24	19	19	0
Television news	24	24	21	17	16	19	20	16	22	17	16	17	+1
Organized labor	15	11	14	15	17	12	15	11	16	14	15	16	+1
Major companies	20	16	13	12	17	13	16	14	11	15	13	15	+2
Law firms	10	13	12	10	11	10	13	10	11	13	11	12	+1
The press	13	16	15	15	12	14	12	10	12	13	11	11	0
Wall Street	23	19	12	17	15	15	17	11	4	8	7	7	0
Congress	18	22	20	13	16	10	10	8	9	8	6	6	0
The executive branch of the federal government	20	33	26	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX*	55	65	57	55	53	52	53	44	54	53	48	49	+1

X = Not asked; * see methodology

Note: Prior to 2011 this survey was conducted by telephone only; the 2011 survey was conducted prior to Osama bin Laden’s death.

TABLE 2B
CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1991-2000)
“As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?”
Those saying “a great deal of confidence”

Base: All Adults

	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	X	50	57	39	43	47	37	44	54	48
Small business	47	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Medicine	23	22	22	23	26	29	29	38	39	44
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	X	29	23	25	27	30	27	37	37	36
The U.S. Supreme Court	15	30	26	31	32	31	28	37	42	34
Organized religion	21	11	X	X	24	X	20	25	27	26
The White House	X	25	23	18	13	15	15	20	22	21
Public schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and the justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	9	12	23	20	16	21	18	26	23	20
Organized labor	21	11	X	X	8	X	9	13	15	15
Major companies	20	10	16	19	21	21	18	21	23	28
Law firms	X	13	11	8	9	11	7	11	10	12
The press	X	X	15	13	11	14	11	14	15	13
Wall Street	14	13	13	15	13	17	17	18	30	30
Congress	9	16	12	8	10	10	11	12	12	15
The executive branch of the federal government	X	X	15	12	9	12	12	17	17	18
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX*	45	45	47	43	43	47	42	54	60	59

X = Not asked; * see methodology

TABLE 2C
CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1981-1990)
“As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?”
Those saying “a great deal of confidence”

Base: All Adults

	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The military	28	31	35	45	32	36	35	33	32	43
Medicine	37	32	35	43	39	33	36	40	30	35
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	34	30	36	40	35	34	36	34	32	35
The U.S. Supreme Court	29	25	33	35	28	32	30	32	28	32
Organized religion	22	20	22	24	21	22	16	17	16	20
The White House	28	20	23	42	30	19	23	17	20	14
Public Schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	24	24	24	28	23	27	29	28	25	27
Organized labor	12	8	10	12	13	11	11	13	10	18
Major companies	16	18	18	19	17	16	21	19	16	9
Law firms	X	X	12	17	12	14	15	13	X	X
The press	16	14	19	18	16	19	19	18	18	12
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	8	21
Congress	16	13	20	28	16	21	20	15	16	14
The executive branch of the federal government	24	X	X	X	19	18	19	16	17	14
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX*	51	46	53	63	51	51	53	50	46	50

X = Not asked; * see methodology

TABLE 2D
CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1966-1980)
“As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?”
Those saying “a great deal of confidence”

Base: All Adults

	1966	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	61	27	35	40	33	24	23	27	29	29	28
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Medicine	73	61	48	57	50	43	42	43	42	30	34
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	61	37	33	44	40	36	31	37	41	33	36
The U.S. Supreme Court	50	23	28	33	40	28	22	29	29	28	27
Organized religion	41	27	30	36	32	32	24	29	24	20	22
The White House	X	X	X	18	28	X	11	31	14	15	18
Public schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	X	X	X	41	31	35	28	28	35	37	29
Organized labor	22	14	15	20	18	14	10	14	15	10	14
Major companies	55	27	27	29	21	19	16	20	22	18	16
Law firms	X	X	X	24	18	16	12	14	18	16	13
The press	29	18	18	30	25	26	20	18	23	28	19
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	12
Congress	42	19	21	X	18	13	9	17	10	18	18
The executive branch of the federal government	41	23	27	19	28	13	11	23	14	17	17
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX*	100	58	59	69	64	55	44	55	55	50	49

X = Not asked; * see methodology

TABLE 3
CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS; AVERAGE FOR INDEX IN EACH DECADE

	1960s		1970s		1980s		1990s		2000s		2010s
					1980	49	1990	50	2000	59	2010	53
			1971	58	1981	51	1991	45	2001	55	2011	48
			1972	59	1982	46	1992	45	2002	65	2012	49
			1973	69	1983	53	1993	47	2003*	57
			1974	64	1984	63	1994	43	2004	55
			1975	55	1985	51	1995	43	2005	53
	1966	100	1976	44	1986	51	1996	47	2006	52
			1977	55	1987	53	1997	42	2007	53
			1978	55	1988	50	1998	54	2008	44
			1979	50	1989	46	1999	60	2009	54
AVERAGE FOR DECADE	100		57		51		48		55		50

*Completed in December 2002

TABLE 4
CONFIDENCE LEVELS – BY PARTY
“As far as people in charge of running … are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?”
Those saying “a great deal of confidence”

Base: All Adults

	Total	Party ID
		Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%
The military	55	65	52	55
Small business	50	58	43	55
Medicine	34	33	39	33
Major educational institutions, such as colleges and universities	30	25	37	26
The U.S. Supreme Court	27	29	25	28
Organized religion	23	33	22	18
The White House	22	6	39	16
Public schools	21	16	29	21
The courts and the justice system	19	20	23	17
Television news	17	10	25	14
Organized labor	16	7	26	14
Major companies	15	19	12	15
Law firms	12	10	17	9
The press	11	5	17	10
Wall Street	7	6	7	7
Congress	6	5	8	5

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone and online, within the United States between April 9 and 17, 2012 among a nationwide cross section of 2,060 adults (aged 18 and over). The interviews conducted by telephone (1016) included a nationwide cross section of adults with landlines in their households.  The interviews conducted online (1044) included a nationwide sample who have agreed to take part in Harris Interactive surveys, and who indicated not having a landline (i.e., cell phone only), or using their cell phone for almost all of their calls (cell phone mostly), and thus were included to ensure representation of these groups that are lacking among a traditional RDD telephone sample.  Telephone data only were adjusted to ensure appropriate representation on number of telephone/voice lines and number of adults in the household, and online data only were are adjusted by propensity to be online to correct for attitudinal/behavioral differences between our panel and those who respond via phone.  Finally, for the combined telephone and online data, figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, household income, and phone status (cell phone only, cell phone mostly, dual users, landline mostly, landline only) were adjusted as necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.  Population proportions for demographic variables were acquired from the 2010 Current Population Survey, while phone status proportions were acquired from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public’s confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

1. The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.
2. All items have equal weight.
3. The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.
4. In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original 10 items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.
5. Whenever a new item is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year’s score. The new factor is derived by calculating the index with and without the new item(s), taking the ratio of the two scores, and multiplying this ratio by the old factor. (The current factor is 2.14).
6. In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

Up until Tuesday night’s debate, Rick Santorum had held the lead in Michigan polls. A lackluster debate performance that included booing from the audience seems to have changed the minds of Michigan voters according to a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates.

Digging into the survey results deeper shows an interesting conflict. When asked “If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today, would you vote for Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul?”, 40% chose Romney while 34% chose Santorum – a reversal from a February 20th poll where Santorum held the edge on that question 38% to 34%. If the question is reduced to asking “Suppose the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.  For whom would you vote?” Santorum takes the lead 46% to 44% so which of the other candidates is having an effect on Michigan election?

Ron Paul was selected 10% of the time and Newt Gingrich 9% of the time so both of the lower-tier candidates appear to be taking more of Santorum’s base than those that might vote for Romney.

” Electability” appears to also be driving poll results. When asked who survey respondents thought could beat Obama in the general election, 74% felt that Romney was very or somewhat likely to beat the president while only 59% said the same about Santorum. 44% of those responding to the survey thought that Newt could beat Obama while only 19% believed that Ron Paul stood a chance against the incumbent.

With the vote in Michigan being held next Tuesday, the trend and sentiment seem to be going Romney’s way.

photo credit: R. Mitchell, CDN

The media has a “laser-like” focus on the GOP presidential nomination race, analysts are starting to talk about the Senate races, but the House has been all but ignored – and that could lead to another Nancy Pelosi speakership.

According to a new Harris Interactive Poll, a House election held today would have voters selecting a generic Republican 38% of the time and a generic Democrat just as often.

The data break-outs are where the interesting numbers lay. While almost 90% of GOP would vote for their party’s candidate, just 80% of Democrats would. That disparity alone should yield a right-leaning House.. shouldn’t it?

For the right, the key is independents. They would vote for a Democrat 28% of the time compared to 26% of the vote going to the GOP. 15% of independents would vote 3rd party and 30% of them haven’t even figured out how they would vote.

Congressional approval ratings are also at an historical low which could lead to an anti-incumbent campaign to turn the whole House over. Considering that Democrats have a 13% approval and Republican members only enjoy a 10% rating, a blood bath may ensue for the GOP.

The poor rating for Republicans may by in part by dissatisfaction from the TEA parties. The freshman conservative group that was elected in 2010 was sent to D.C. to cut spending, lower taxes and reduce the size of government. Little of that having been achieved and the back-room tactics being used by the GOP leadership to co-opt the movement may be more  reason for the backlash.

Tonight at 9pm Eastern, NBC will hold the next in a series of Republican candidate debates which will include Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

Expect the debate to be the Mitt and Newt show – trading barbs on what has or hasn’t been released and who’s the better Conservative.

Taking into consideration Mitt Romney’s announcement to reporters shortly after conceding the landslide loss in South  Carolina, he is widely expected to lash out at Newt in the debate tonight. Mitt will likely demand Newt’s contract from Freddie Mac and other artifacts in an attempt to damage Gingrich’s rising favor with the electorate.

Rick Santorum was crowned the winner of the Iowa Caucuses, but hasn’t shown strongly in the two primaries that followed. His standings in the most recent national poll give little reason for any of the candidates or the moderators to aim questions and/or comments at him.

Ron Paul will likely stick to talking about financial bubbles and his non-interventionism foreign policy. Rep. Paul is the only remaining candidate not to have won in a primary or caucus. That, along with his disappointing results in South Carolina faltering national poll numbers may see another debate where Paul is less-involved than his fans would like.

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Who Won Poll:

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Rep. Paul had the highest unfavorable rating as 30% of respondents ranked him very unfavorable and another 29% said that he was somewhat unfavorable. A total unfavorable rating of 59%  was by far the worst of the group. Front-runners Romney and Santorum had unfavorables of only 26%.

Where things get really bleak for the Representative from Texas is when Rasmussen asked the respondents “Which Republican presidential candidate would be the weakest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election…. Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry?” – the results:

•   5% Romney
•   5% Santorum
• 11% Perry
• 12% Gingrich
• 19% Huntsman
•  36% Paul

Paul actually polled as a weaker candidate than Jon Huntsman when stood up against the current President and in an election where the mantra is “anybody but Obama” it will be difficult to get the nomination if no one believes you can beat the current resident of the White House.

Mitt Romney held on to the top spot in the poll with 29% while Santorum jumped significantly to 21% of survey respondents. Newt Gingrich pulled in third with just 16% and Ron Paul rounded out the top four with only 12% . Perry and Huntsman both came in with just 4%.

Santorum could have gotten some of his lift from Michele Bachmann supporters needing a new candidate to back. Some support may also be coming from those starting to think that Perry won’t last much longer – but neither of those explain the incredible lift by themselves. Perhaps  Santorum has become the candidate for the “anyone but Romney” crowd. Among “very conservative” voters, Santorum out-polled Romney 33% to 18% and he topped Romney by 5% among those who self-identify as TEA Party members.

Romney’s strong support seems to be coming from somewhat-to-less conservative voters of all ages with incomes of over $100k.

As candidates start their attack runs on the leader, Romney, a national poll showing him failing to get much more than 1-in-4 voters into his camp is a cautionary note.

One important piece of information that came out of this poll is that almost one-third of respondents that chose Romney said they could still change their mind – the highest percentage of any candidate in the poll.

Among Republicans, over one-quarter (27%) would vote for Newt Gingrich in the primary while 17% would vote for Mitt Romney and 11% for Ron Paul. Other candidates are all under 10% including Michele Bachman (6%), Rick Perry (3%), Rick Santorum (3%) and Jon Huntsman (1%). One-third of Republicans (32%), however, are still not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,237 adults surveyed online between December 5 and 12, 2011 by Harris Interactive .

Among Independents, 14% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, and 11% would vote for Newt Gingrich. Over two-in-five Independents (43%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the primary. Among Conservatives, one quarter (24%) would vote for Newt Gingrich, 16% for Mitt Romney, and 11% forRon Paul. Just over one-quarter of Tea Party supporters (27%) would vote for New Gingrich in the Republican primary, 15% would vote for Mitt Romney, and 12% for Ron Paul, while 30% are not at all sure.

If the primary was just a two person race, two-in-five Republicans (40%) would vote for Newt Gingrich and three-in-ten would vote for Mitt Romney with 30% not at all sure. Among Tea Party supporters, 44% would vote for the former Speaker and one-quarter (25%) for the former Massachusetts Governor while three-in-ten (31%) say they are not at all sure. Looking at Conservatives, two-in-five (41%) would vote for Newt Gingrich, one-quarter (26%) for Mitt Romney, and one-third (33%) are not at all sure.

Head to head match-ups

While Newt Gingrich may be ahead in the primary race, Mitt Romney makes it a closer race against President Obama. If the presidential election were held today, 43% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 40% would vote for Mitt Romney and 17% are not at all sure. Last month it was a tie, with 41% of U.S. adults saying they would vote for the President and 41% saying they would vote for Mitt Romney.

Looking at the probable swing states for 2012 (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire,North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia), 42% of people from those states would vote for Mitt Romney and 39% would vote for President Obama; 19% are not at all sure.  Among Independents, 41% would vote for Romney and 39% for the President.

Newt Gingrich may now be on top among the Republican nominees, but in a head to head match-up he is further behind the President as 45% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 38% would vote forNewt Gingrich, with 17% saying they are not at all sure.  Looking at Independents, 43% would vote for President Obama, 38% would vote for Newt Gingrich, and 19% are not at all sure.  Among the 2012 swing states, however, it becomes a much closer race with 42% voting for the President and 41% voting forNewt Gingrich.

So What?

One month from now the race for the Republican nomination will probably have a very different look. Iowaand New Hampshire will be in the past and the candidates that remain in the race, having made a decent enough showing in those first states to continue, will  be moving on to South Carolina and Florida. Will it be a two person race between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich? Or, will a third person, maybe Ron Paul, who is the only other candidate in double digits now, move ahead?  How this races moves from there is anyone’s guess, but the current thinking is that this nomination fight will continue into March at least.

TABLE 1
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
“If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 2
ROMNEY VS GINGRICH
“If you were voting in the Republican primary and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3A
ROMNEY VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3B
ROMNEY VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

TABLE 4A
GINGRICH VS OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5B
GINGRICH VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

Among all Americans, two in five like Mitt Romney as a person (40%), over one-third (36%) say they like his track record as governor and one-third (33%) like his political opinions. But over one-third of U.S. adults also say they are not sure about Mitt Romney as a person (34%), not sure about his track record as governor (38%) and not sure about his political opinions (34%).

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,499 adults surveyed online between November 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive .

Among Republicans almost three in five (58%) like Mitt Romney as a person, half (49%) like his track record as governor and 57% like his political opinions. Among Conservatives, these numbers drop a little. Just half of Conservatives like Mitt Romney as a person (49%) and like his political opinions (48%) while just two in five Conservatives like his track record as governor (39%).

When given some statements about Mitt Romney, again there is a little bit of the unknown. Just over half of Americans (54%) say Mitt Romney is an intelligent person with one-third (32%) saying they are not sure and while half (49%) believe his business experience would be an asset, again one-third (32%) are not sure.  Romney has also been charged with “flip-flopping” and 44% of Americans agree that his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to, not his core convictions, with over one-third (36%) not sure about this.

However, just 20% of Americans say Mitt Romney lacks experience and is not qualified to be president with half (48%) disagreeing with that statement but, again, one-third (32%) are not sure. The issue of religion has also been raised and while 52% of Americans say Mitt Romney being Mormon is not an issue, one-quarter say it is (23%) and the same number are not sure (25%). The one thing that evenly divides Americans is if he inspires confidence personally. One third of Americans think Mitt Romney does (35%), one third says he does not (33%), and one-third are not sure (32%).

Among Republicans, two-thirds believe Mitt Romney is intelligent (69%) and that his business experience would be an asset (67%), while over half (53%) say he inspires confidence personally. Just over one-quarter (27%) say his being Mormon is an issue but two in five Republicans (41%) say his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to and not his core convictions. His numbers are a little weaker among Conservatives as just three in five say he is an intelligent person (61%) and that his business experience is an asset (61%) with less than half (46%) agreeing he inspires confidence personally. Slightly over two in five (43%) agree his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to and not his core convictions while one-quarter (26%) say his being Mormon is an issue.

Looking at Mitt Romney’s political ideology, one in ten Americans (8%) say he is too liberal, compared to 15% of Republicans and one in five Conservatives (20%). On the flip side, 16% of U.S. adults say Mitt Romney is too conservative. One-third of Americans (32%) say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative but almost half (45%) are not sure, including one-third of Republicans (34%) and two in five Conservatives (39%).

If Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee, one-third of Americans (33%) would vote for him, 38% would not and 25% are not sure. Two-thirds of Republicans (65%) would vote for him, but just over half of Conservatives (57%) say the same. Two in five Independents (40%) would vote for Mitt Romney while one-third would not (34%) but among Moderates two in five would not vote for him (39%) while 27% would.

So What?
With the Republican primary this year, much can change in a week, let alone three weeks, so it’s still anyone’s guess what will actually happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. But, one thing is certain. For someone who in his second run for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney has not done a great job of defining who he is and what he stands for. Others have defined him and that may be one of the main reasons he has not been able to run away with the nomination, even though he’s been the “front-runner” for almost the whole of 2011.

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; * indicates less than 1%

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio

“The support of CEOs provides a powerful endorsement in an election focused on economic revitalization and job creation,” says ChiefExecutive.net CEO Marshall Cooper. “In addition, CEOs carry immense influence and can typically tap powerful donor networks and their own cash for campaign contributions.”

In the Republican field, three candidates have CEO experience. Mitt Romney served as co-founder and general partner of Bain Capital, CEO of Bain & Company and CEO of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic Games Organizing Committee. Herman Cain served as CEO of Godfather’s Pizza. Jon Huntsman is the son of the founder of the multi-billion revenue
conglomerate Huntsman Corp. and served as CEO of his family’s investment company.

CEOs overwhelmingly believe that Romney will also appeal to the full Republican base as 79.2% believe he will eventually emerge as the GOP nominee. All other candidates trail far behind Romney – 10.3% think Perry is most likely to take the Republican nomination and 6.4% think Herman Cain will make his way onto the ballot.

Governor Perry’s favor has dropped significantly since ChiefExecutive.net’s September poll where 49.2% of CEOs thought Perry would take the nomination and 27.9% of CEOs
preferred Perry as the GOP’s presidential candidate. Perry serves as governor of Texas, which CEOs ranked as the best state for business in the Chief Executive’s 2011 Best/Worst
States for Business poll.

The ChiefExecutive.net poll surveyed active CEOs from Oct. 11-13 with 234 respondents.

Important to note is that this monthly poll concluded on the 10th –  one day before the debate.  Performances in last night’s debate had no impact on the results.

Cain’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are the best of all the candidates at 66% favorable and 15% unfavorable. Ron Paul had the worst unfavorable rating as 54% of respondents found Rep. Paul unfavorable and only 29% favorable. The only debate candidate with a worse favorable rating than Ron Paul was Jon Huntsman at 20%.

Newt Gingrich‘s slow slog to the front is continuing. His favorable numbers have grown to 57% while his unfavorable rating has dropped to 30%. That put him in the second place spot for favorability among candidates in the debate.

Of the debate participants, Mitt Romney had the third best favorable rating at 31% and tied for fourth in unfavorability with Jon Huntsman.

When asked if the leading candidates were too liberal, too conservative or just right, the respondents answered:

It appears that Cain is out-middling Mitt Romney by the results in the table. Being so set in the Goldie Locks zone, it might seem logical to assume that Tea Partiers may find Cain unappealing. Precisely the opposite, the poll shows that Herman Cain is enjoying a large portion of his following from those that consider the TEA parties favorably.

When the all important question of who would you vote for was asked:

If the Republican candidates for President were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ————-   5%
Herman Cain ——————–  30%
Newt Gingrich ——————- 15%
Jon Huntsman ——————- 2%
Gary Johnson ——————– 0%
Ron Paul ————————– 5%
Rick Perry ———————— 14%
Mitt Romney ——————–  22%
Rick Santorum ——————  1%
Someone else/Not sure ——-  6%

While the mainstream media is ready to crown Mitt Romney, the voters may have something to say about that.