Mark Rain (CC)

It is a given that Iran will be a large part of the foreign policy debate between Obama and Romney this fall. But, it will necessarily be in general terms that will likely be useless in practice, and will only be for the benefit of the public and pundits. And it is unlikely that there will be much from Romney’s side that will differ greatly from the current course of action, if for no other reason, because the options are fairly limited. No one that wants to be elected this November will suggest military action in Iran, outside of unmanned air-strikes, or limited surgical actions to reduce Iran’s ability to produce enriched Uranium. And any debate on that would be limited to what is already known publicly about those operations, so there would be logistical issues to address in such a plan – Iran apparently has been building facilities underground, presumably out of the reach of conventional air-strikes.

While the release of video showing domestic unrest is somewhat heartening, it is without real context. Yes, the people are angry with Ahmadinejad, but they could just as easily be more angry with the U.S. – a likely scenario, given that they are undoubtedly given daily doses of anti-Western rhetoric from clerics. The video evidence is also anecdotal, so it would be foolish to think that it is a sign of a potential mass uprising and eventual regime change. For the true cynics out there, change might not be good either – there are no guarantees that once the dust settles, the new leadership would be any friendlier with the U.S. or Israel.

Arab nations in the region add to the instability of the situation as well. Syria’s problems give Iran incentive to move forward faster toward nuclear capabilities, since that nation is its only real ally in the region. Then there is the issue of other Arab nations seeking nuclear arms in the wake of Iran accomplishing that end. That alone is arguably the greatest reason for preventing Iran from entering the nuclear club.

Then there is the possibility that Israel would render all U.S. diplomatic considerations moot by initiating a strike against Iran. If this happens before November, it would radically change the situation for our election, obviously. If it happens at all, it virtually guarantees U.S. involvement in yet another war. Any plan for preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities that does not take Israel into consideration should be left on the drawing board. If Romney wants to truly exploit deficiencies in the Obama course of action, this is it. The current administration’s diplomatic failures with Israel should be tied into the Iran problem.

The one thing this administration might have done right was to enlist Russia in the diplomatic process. There is a tiny glimmer of hope that their restarting of talks with Tehran may cause the end of the current problem. While it may not leave all parties happy, since it may result in Iran’s ability to export power from nuclear plants, it is at least progress.

As for finding a winning strategy in Iran, perhaps the answer lies in the middle, between extending an open hand as the Obama administration is doing, and offering only a fist, like Iran. But, no matter what is chosen, if the U.S. does not stop characterizing itself as a weakling on the world stage, our nation will pay for it. There is such a thing as tough diplomacy, and as a nation, we need to embrace that stance once again.

Suggested Reading:

Keeping Iran in Check

The Israeli and Arab Dimensions of Iran’s Nuclear Program

The Ghost of Iran’s Future

On Wednesday, in a continued show of defiance against sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, Iran announced two major advances in its nuclear program. A CNN report said Iranian President Ahmadinejad was at the reactor to personally hand load domestically made file rods while also announcing a new generation of advanced centrifuges with the intent to produce yellowcake, which is used to enrich uranium. Yellowcake is a material which the United Nations has banned Iran from developing.

Tehran displayed further resistance as state media reported the Islamic Nation was taking steps to stop oil exports to six European countries as a result of the sanctions. This would include an oil ban. It’s reported Iran has already discontinued exports to France and the Netherlands while placing an ultimatum on Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal demanding they either sign long term contracts with Iran or be cut off completely. The ban on Iranian oil by the EU set to go in effect in July.

On Wednesday Iran’s head nuclear negotiator formally notified the EU’s foreign policy chief that Iran has a willingness to resume talks with world powers over its nuclear program. However many in the West feel it’s ploy to buy more time.

The announcement came on the 33rd anniversary of the Islamic revolution before thousands of Iranians, carrying flags and pictures of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei while chanting “Death to Israel” and “Death to America”, in state-organized rallies across the Islamic republic.

“In the coming days the world will witness Iran’s announcement of its very important and very major nuclear achievements,” Ahmadinejad said to a crowd at Tehran’s Azadi (Freedom). He gave no specific details.

Despite sanctions imposed by the United States and its European allies in an attempt to force Tehran back to the table for more talks. Iran continues to maintain its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

The announcement came on the 33rd anniversary of the Islamic revolution before thousands of Iranians, carrying flags and pictures of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei while chanting “Death to Israel” and “Death to America”, in state-organized rallies across the Islamic republic.

“In the coming days the world will witness Iran’s announcement of its very important and very major nuclear achievements,” Ahmadinejad said to a crowd at Tehran’s Azadi (Freedom). He gave no specific details.

Despite sanctions imposed by the United States and its European allies in an attempt to force Tehran back to the table for more talks. Iran continues to maintain its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

From Fox Business

FNC national security analyst K.T. McFarland on the lack of progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and why Obama’s policies on Iran have failed.