Tag Archives: Iowa caucus

Mitchell & Ray – January 12th

When: Thursday, January12th, 10pm Eastern/7pm Pacific

Where:Streaming Internet Radio

What: Join independent political commentators Michelle Ray and Rich Mitchell as they discuss the issues impacting Americans.

 

Tonight: Stupid News, Iowa, New Hampshire, Libertarian ideology & Ron Paul

Show Recording: 

[mp3player width=300 height=75 config=fmp_jw_widget_config.xml file=http://media2.conservativedailynews.com/shows/mitchell-and-ray/show_1-12-12.mp3]

and .. the non-flash, iGadget-friendly version:

Stupid News, Iowa, New Hampshire, Libertarian ideology & Ron Paul

Mitchell & Ray – January 5th- Stupid News, Iowa, Recess Appointments

When: Thursday, January5th, 10pm Eastern/7pm Pacific

Where:Streaming Internet Radio

What: Join independent political commentators Michelle Ray and Rich Mitchell as they discuss the issues impacting Americans.

 

Tonight: Stupid news, Iowa, Obama’s recce appointments and where the hell is the Tea Party?


Show Recording: 

[mp3player width=300 height=75 config=fmp_jw_widget_config.xml file=http://media2.conservativedailynews.com/shows/mitchell-and-ray/Show_1-5-12.mp3]

and .. the non-flash, iGadget-friendly version:

<a href=”http://media2.conservativedailynews.com/shows/mitchell-and-ray/Show_1-5-12.mp3″>Stupid News, Iowa, Recess Appointments</a>

Will This Endorsement Be The Death Nail In Romney's Coffin?

The 2012 Presidential election is in full swing! Iowa started the “official” kickoff with its caucuses last night.

While the majority of the media sat around waiting for missing ballots, Politico delivered what could very well be the death nail in Mr. Mitt “The Only Electabale Candidate” Romney’s coffin: the declaration that John McCain is set to endorse Mitt Romney.

The really strange thing is that the Republican Establishment still does not seem to get it! We The People have had enough of the same ole’ “politics as usual” game. The Republican Party has played the game for years, and we’ve all just gone along to get along, so to speak. One would think the mid-term elections in 2010 would have sent the message loud and clear to The Establishment, but, they still don’t seem to get it. We The (Conservative) People do not care that they The Establishment say it’s Mitt Romney’s “turn” to run for President. That’s all he’s been doing for four years now.

So many of us have said we are sick and tired of having to hold our nose and vote for the “lesser of two evils“. That’s what we were stuck with in the 2008 election, with John McCain and Barack Obama. Mitt Romney was in full swing back then, as well, and as Politico stated:

“The Arizona senator fought a bitter nomination battle with Romney four years ago, though Romney has worked to mend the relationship since then. “

The saying is definitely true…. “politics sure makes strange bed fellows.” Bitter rivals in 2008 now on the “same team” in 2012? That pretty much sums up the whole attitude of The Establishment: it’s all a game to them. They spout a few endearing words here and there about taking our country back, restoring her and the principles she was founded on, but they are hollow words at best. It’s nothing but one big game to all of them.

John McCain’s endorsement of Romney should shake the Tea Party into full action. Things have been a little too quiet in that camp since the 2010 election. Rick Santorum’s virtual win in Iowa should be the kick in the pants the Tea Party needs to get them moving again. While Rick Santorum “officially” lost to Mitt Romney, it was by a mere 8 vote. Eight votes! That’s all that kept Rick Santorum  from an “official” win in Iowa last night.

Mitt Romney has been campaigning since the 2008 election (and before, in reality), and has spent millions of dollars. Rick Santorum spent “next to nothing”, and campaigned the good ole fashioned way: “riding around in a borrowed pickup”, shaking the hands of the constituents and asking for their vote.

Rick Santorum is by no means “new” to politics, and has some marks against him, but as my colleague so eloquently stated:

“…Santorum is much less polished and much more human than Romney…”

If there were ever any questions about Mitt Romney, the fact that John McCain will now endorse him should clearly define our reality: politics is nothing but a game, literally! The Republican Party and Super PAC’s will continue to throw millions of dollars behind Mitt Romney, and essentially buy the election.

If ever there were a time in this nation’s history for people to stand up and shout, “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!”, this is it! No more “politics as usual!” It is NOT Mitt Romney’s “turn” to run for President simply because some elite few think they are the ones to make our decisions for us. If The Establishment has their way, John McCain’s endorsement of Mitt Romney will be the “defining moment” of this election, not the death nail.

In a perfect world Rick Santorum would not have been the perfect choice going into this battle. However, pulling the lever for him will be MUCH easier than pulling the lever for John McCain ever was! When push comes to shove, if Rick Santorum becomes the Republican nominee, voting will not be nearly as disgusting this time around. One can definitely hope!

Indeed, Mr. Santorum: “GAME ON!”

Where Do We Stand In Iowa?

Folks, it’s time to break out the crystal ball and predict what will happen in Iowa tomorrow.

(Just kidding.)

While there’s no clear leader in Iowa, Mitt Romney might be considered such, since he has led the polls the most consistently. However, the horse-trading nature of Iowa’s process means that Romney has no guarantee of success. In addition, the politically-attuned Iowa caucusers may reconsider support for him, since Romney recently expressed support for a national VAT tax.

Then there’s Ron Paul. The nature of the Iowa caucuses gives Paul an advantage: 17-year-olds can participate, independents can register Republican the day of the caucus, and active-duty military personnel registered to vote in Iowa but stationed elsewhere can’t participate as absentees. These demographic ‘slivers’ taken together could make a big difference for Paul. On the other hand, Paul’s racist, bigoted, and generally loony newsletters may make him too toxic for good-natured midwesterners.

Rick Santorum has seen a recent surge in polling. Whether this is an aberration or a genuine swing of support to him is anyone’s guess; personally, I’ve stopped giving serious weight to polling, since the frequency with which the results change leads me to believe recent polls are unreliable.

Newt Gingrich has fallen slightly in polling, now in fourth place according to some polls behind Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum. If one is to believe the polling (see above), this would indicate that caucusgoers are growing wiser about Mr. Gingrich’s poor Second Amendment record, long history of supporting socialized medicine, admiration of big-government historical figures, and his track record of poor leadership, and have decided to favor a more stable candidate.

And then there’s Rick Perry, ostensibly in fifth place. Rick could have an excellent showing tomorrow, given the nature of the Iowa process: Iowa is a state where second choices count almost as much as first choices. Once a candidate is disqualified in the caucus process, that candidate’s supporters can re-negotiate to back another candidate. Michele Bachmann is likely to be disqualified first; and if the “Santorum surge” is an aberration, and Santorum doesn’t perform well, his supporters and Bachmann’s supporters will most likely end up backing Perry as a second choice, which could push Perry above Gingrich.

As I noted a few days ago, things are changing among Republicans in Iowa, even the generally-accepted support for ethanol subsidies.

Whatever happens tomorrow, one thing is certain: It’s going to be a nail-biter for political junkies.

(Image via Wikipedia.org)

100 Years of Iowa Stubborn

“You really ought to give Iowa, a try!”

These are the famous lyrics from the first ensemble tune of the classic “The Music Man”, set in 1912.  The con-artist Harold Hill strolls into a rural Iowa town ready to spring his latest gimmick on an unsuspecting people.  It’s almost a challenge from his fellow matchstick men to try to conquer the folks of River City who, being forewarned by his colleagues may be simple, but not stupid.  This is not going to be an easy con.

Yet the words in this little ditty are quite revealing in their contradictory message – you’re always welcome here, but we’ll basically keep you at arms length.  What worked for Meredith Willson’s plot setting also seems to be the backdrop for the “first in the Union” Iowa Caucuses.  So, if we were to combine the two, we can indeed celebrate the Centennial of Iowa Stubborn.

As one experiences Willson’s great musical, one will realize that the term “Iowa Stubborn” is eventually one of endearment.  As unusual as the townsfolk seem to be to outsiders, they also eventually approve to be genuine.  At the same time, however, they also prove to have a gullible side, at least temporarily.  Such can also be said of the very long processes of the Iowa Caucus.

For years (not quite a hundred), Iowa has been at the epicenter of the presidential primary universe because of its placement among the respective caucuses and primaries.  Candidates who are truly serious about their party’s nomination will not just visit, but virtually inhabit the small, rural state in the heartland – shaking hands, kissing babies and consuming all manner of fried foods (hopefully not getting the three confused – shaking babies and kissing food is frowned upon in these parts).  Yet despite the pre-season polls and the self-anointed talking heads making grandiose predictions, Iowa often seems to flash that “stubborn” to the rest of the nation at the last minute.

Perhaps it is not as random or naïve as one may think either.  These are down to earth folks who know all too well that come January 4th, the political spring will dry up and the state will be hard pressed to see hide nor hair of a candidate except on television.  As ingratiating (ok, brown-nosing) as the candidates have been and will be for the next several days, Iowans know that their small but significant mark on the political stage has an expiration date and they have perfected the art of keeping the candidate’s attention for as long as they can.

At the same time, the people of Iowa can allow the occasional “Harold Hill” to stir them up.  All too often has the political snake-oil salesman been successful in convincing Iowans to buy their elixir in bulk.  Sometimes, this boost out of the gate will propel these folks to eventual victory by way of their party’s nomination, but more often than not, it only results in a pop-shot that ends with a quiet thud out in the desert.

Still, the caucuses have yielded the intended fruit in times past.  For the Democrats, the last three caucuses have produced nominees, dating back to the last century (if that doesn’t make you feel old..) and for the GOP, it goes back to 1992, with the exception of Mike Huckabee’s seeing-eye single that stranded him on first in 2008.

However, the question is, now that the GOP has moved to a more proportional system of appointing delegates, similar to that of the Democrats (I think I just tasted my lunch again), can Iowa stay the power player it has been in past election cycles or will the caucuses wonder into a far less relevant role?  With our Centennial celebration of Iowa Stubborn, does this also mark the end of the reign of said stubbornness?  What will the face of Iowa politics look like in 2016?

Unorthodox, stubborn, salt-of-the-earth or just downright quirky – this could possibly be the end of the Iowa heyday when it comes to the primary politics.  But while the folks of the Hawkeye state have been a combination of inviting, yet standoffish, wise, yet gullible, there are one thing – enduring.

Still, you know, you ought to give Iowa, a try!

Iowa GOP Losing Interest In Subsidies

The long-standing “sacred cow” of Iowa politics may not be sacred anymore.

From The Iowa Republican:

A recent survey of likely Republican caucus goers shows that support of federal subsidies for the ethanol industry has waned significantly in recent years. The poll, which was commissioned by TheIowaRepublican.com, finds that Iowa Republicans view a candidate who supports ending federal ethanol subsidies more favorably than a candidate who doesn’t.

The survey asked, “Some of the candidates have proposed to end federal subsidies for ethanol. Do you have a very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative reaction to candidates taking this position?” Forty-seven percent responded by answering very or somewhat positive. Only 24 percent of respondents said that they had a negative reaction to a candidate who is campaigning against ethanol subsidies.

This is quite a change from previous Presidential election years.

Paul Abrams at The Huffington Post doesn’t appear to have gotten the memo:

In the circus masquerading as the Republican Iowa caucus, there has been nary a word about ethanol subsidies, a major issue for Iowans.

But, where do these budget-cutting, waste-fraud-abuse claiming, shrinking-government demanding, laissez-faire extolling candidates stand on ethanol subsidies? The subsidies have been around a long, long time.

Consider the implication of this change in Iowa: The biggest obstacle to cutting government spending has been the “public trough” effect- the notion that voters would resist cutting excessive spending immediately beneficial to themselves. This effect has been particularly strong in Iowa, where ethanol subsidies were considered so sacred that every Presidential candidate had to publicly favor them or throw away any chance of success in that state.

We all know the left counts on this lack of self-deprivation as a safeguard against serious budget cuts. If Abrams’ comments are any indication, the prospect of Iowans adopting some measure of self-discipline with regard to federal taxpayer dollars terrifies the left.

Florida Takes a Stand, Sets Primary Date of Jan 31st

 It is now official: The Sunshine State of Florida will hold it’s Republican Presidential Primary on Jan 31st, 2012.

While GOP establishment operatives across America have expressed a wide variety of complaints about Florida’s decision to hold their Primary on Jan 31st, this Floridian believes this is simply a matter of Florida’s right to decide when to hold their primaries, not the decision of outsiders from other states or establishment GOP operatives who, frankly haven’t been doing so well for America in recent years.It was that kind of elitist mentality that inspired the Tea Party groups across America to take it upon themselves to restore true conservative principles back into American politics, which they did in the historic 2010 elections. Since this whole debate is about Florida’s decision to hold their primary earlier than the GOP establishment would like,  so let’s see what actual Florida politicians had to say were the reasons for the date change shall we? We will leave the national kingmakers of the GOP establishment’s opinions for the end of this article.

 NOTE: This major decision to change Florida’s Primary date in 2012 came about with the creation of a state law that required a committee to be formed that required Governor Rick, House Speaker and Senate President Mike Haridopolos to each nominate 3 choices to serve on the committee,  one of which must be a Democrat, thus the committee had 9 republicans and 3 Democrats on it. The final vote that decided the primary date change was 7 -2, with all Republicans agreeing on the primary date change along with one Democrat.

The committee members are as follows, with who picked the members noted: 

 Florida Governor Rick Scott announced his three choices for Florida’s Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee.
Former Republican Governor Bob Martinez served as Florida’s 40th governor from 1987 to 1991. Before that he served as the mayor of Tampa, the city where he was born.
Former Democrat Senator Al Lawson represented Floridians from 11 panhandle counties from 2001 to 2011 in the state senate, and before that he served nearly two decades in the Florida House of Representatives.
Jenn Ungru, a Republican, is Governor Scott’s deputy chief of staff with oversight responsibilities over the Department of State. She has served in the Scott administration since the inauguration and has more than a decade of campaign and election experience in Florida and nationwide.

Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R-Merritt Island) announced the appointment of Senators Rene Garcia, Gary Siplin and John Thrasher to the Presidential Preference Primary Committee.
Senator Rene Garcia (R-Hialeah) currently represents Florida Senate District 40, which consists of part of Miami-Dade County.  Garcia first was elected to the Senate in 2010.  Prior to serving in the Florida Senate, Garcia was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2000-2008.
Senator Gary Siplin (D-Orlando) currently represents Florida Senate District 19, which consists of parts of Orange and Osceola Counties.  Siplin was first elected to the Senate in 2002 and was subsequently reelected.  Prior to serving in the Florida Senate, Siplin was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2000-2002.
Senator John Thrasher (R-St. Augustine) currently represents Florida Senate District 8, which consists of parts of Duval, Flagler, Nassau, St. Johns and Volusia Counties.  Thrasher was first elected to the Senate in 2009 and was subsequently reelected.  Prior to serving in the Florida Senate, Thrasher was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 1992-2000; he also served as Speaker of the Florida House from 1998-2000.

Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon appointed the following House Members to the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee:
Representative Carlos Lopez-Cantera
Representative Seth McKeel
Representative Cynthia Stafford

The following are some of the statements Florida politicians from the Republican Party have made, in regards to Florida’s early Primary date decision.

 

Florida State Senator John Thrasher, was on the committee that made the final decision to set the primary date explained, "This is about getting Floridians involved at the earliest possible time."  

 U.S. Rep. David Rivera of Miami explained, “It is indisputable that what matters most in the early primary season is MOMENTUM, not delegates," in response to those who worry about the GOP rule that says Florida may lose half it’s delegates if they went ahead with setting an early primary date. Mr. Rivera also added, "That is why states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which have minuscule delegates, matter. As in 2008, Florida will provide overwhelming momentum not because of our delegate count, but because Florida’s critical role in the November election.”

Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon explained his support for the decision to set the early primary date as, "I feel the 31st is the right time," adding, "We are the largest swing state in the presidential race and have more votes than the first four primary states combined. We deserve to be a make-or-break state for the nomination." With the majority of national political insiders calling Florida the most important swing state in the upcoming presidential election, Mr. Cannon’s statements there do carry a good amount of weight as far as to why Floridians decided to take a stand against the establishment  GOP rule forbidding early primaries.

Florida RNC co-chair, Sharon Day stated her concerns as, " I don’t know if it changes the dynamics of the presidential race, but it makes it tough on the candidates," adding,  "I get the argument for Florida, but we created these rules for a reason."

I also got in touch with 2012 Florida District 03 Congressional candidate, Mike Yost to inquire about his views on the Florida Primary date change. Mr. Yost stated that while he had some reservations about the early primary date, that he was in total agreement in the fact that it is Florida’s decision to make,and not the GOP establishment’s right to impose upon Florida. Mr. Yost  also conveyed his concern about whether or not Florida will, in fact lose half it’s delegates as the GOP has threatened to do on numerous occasions recently, and if so , just what kind of a message would that send to the rest of the country?  The answer to that question will be revealed within the next week, as we approach the deadline for states announcing their Primary dates. 

Florida is receiving major criticism across the political spectrum for their choice to hold their Primary on Jan 31st, as we see by the following statements,many of it from early primary states who will now have to adjust their calendars because of Florida’s decision:

From South Carolina Party Chairman Chad Connelly we see this:  “Rogue states have once again dictated the presidential nominating calendar,”  adding,  “States who have worked so hard to maintain the nominating calendar should not be penalized and the offenders, including Florida, should lose their entire allocations of delegates at the National Convention.” Rogue states, Mr. Connelly? What is this, South American politics we are referring do here?  Drop the childish rhetoric and let’s all unite and get to work to defeat Barack Obama in 2012 please.

From Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawm we see this childish temper tantrum: “The arrogance shown by Florida’s elected leadership is disappointing, but not surprising. Equally troubling is to see this petulant behavior rewarded with our national convention (in Tampa),”  How about the arrogance  the establishment GOP has shown in trying to dictate just what day Florida will hold their presidential primary on here? maybe Mr. Strawm needs to face a real conservative challenger in 2012, unlike when he ran unopposed in the 2010 elections? Mr Strawm praises the Iowa GOP establishment on his very own blog,  while totally ignoring the true conservative grassroots Tea Party movement that rebuked the progressive Democrats and Rino-Republicans in the historic elections of 2010, allowing America a real shot of turning this ship around in 2012. Ignore the Tea party at your own risk, Mr. Strawm, as you sound a lot  like GOP establishment elitism in your above statement. Do you hear this, Tea Party of Iowa? 

The small state of New Hampshire actually has a state law that "requires" the state of New Hampshire to hold it’s primary 7 days before any other state !  Good grief, who in the hell came up with that law? Just because the blue-blooded elitists of what, over a century ago, chose to create a such a ridiculous state law in the first place is supposed to somehow dictate to the state of Florida when they can hold their primary? New Hampshire Republican Chairman Wayne MacDonald explained  that his state will move forward if Florida accelerates the season. State law in the Granite State requires that its primary be held at least seven days before any other primary. "But it really defeats the purpose," MacDonald said. "We were trying to avoid front-loading, but here we go again."  One can certainly understand Mr. MacDonald’s dismay about having to change his state’s primary date now, so here is a simple thought: "Why not instill some common sense and abolish the ludicrous law that says you have to be first in line in the first place? By the way, Iowa usually has their primary ahead of New Hampshire, but as one back-peddling politician stated, "It’s not a primary, it is a caucus."  The fate of the country is at stake and these nuts are playing word games. Lovely.

Of course the leftist-sphere had to put in their two cents:

The leftist rag The L.A.Times puts some ridiculous spin on Florida changing their primary debate in an article that features a giant picture of Hillary Clinton talking to a bunch of people holding Obama and Clinton signs back in 2008 here.  That’s right in an article about GOP primaries, the Liberal establishment running the L.A. Times uses a picture of Hillary Clinton. We must have missed Hillary’s announcement that she will be running for President on the Republican ticket in 2012 there.Of course no conservative-bashing L.A times article would be complete without a few lies and propaganda inserted into it to appease their readers out there in Liberal la-la land:

But Florida, which will play host to the 2012 Republican National Convention, in Tampa, wants to have a more central role in picking the nominee. To achieve that, it would run afoul of the RNC, which will dock it about half of its 116 convention delegates. (emphasis mine) 

So in that statement they falsely state that the RNC will dock Florida half of its delegates, period, yet later on in that very same article, they show how that statement isn’t necessarily true:

 Florida also pulled a similar move in 2008, moving its primary to Jan. 29, and helping to lock up the nomination for Sen. John McCain. Though all the Florida delegates made it to the convention floor in Minneapolis-St. Paul — with about half being characterized as "honored guests" — the RNC seems in no mood to make a deal this time.

How about actually reporting the facts and just the facts, instead of trying to inject your leftist mandate on what the GOP will or will not do regarding Florida’s primary date change decision out there in the 20-billion-dollars-in-the-red-budgetarily-bankrupt state of California ?  We do not need advice or mandates about the Republican Party of America coming  from  the ignorant hope n changers of the left coast. Don’t you have some more illegal alien sanctuary cities to be creating out there in la-la land or something else to keep yourselves busy, like spending time creating laws to ban happy meal toys, while business leave the state in droves due to your decades long march towards creating a Liberal utopia?

 

 The swing state of Florida with it’s added 2 electoral votes, giving it the same total as New York at 29,  is a very critical vote for the Republican candidate to win. Here is a little-known fact: The last Republican candidate to win the White House while losing the Florida vote was Calvin Cooledge in 1924. Florida’s demographics are such a mixed bag that it always makes it a Nervous Nelly situation across the state and country when vote totals start coming in. In 2010 conservative Rick Scott looked like he would actually lose the election to Liberal Alex Sink in the early going, then it was neck and neck through about 80% of the vote with Scott pulling ahead for good pretty much not until the end. Northern Florida and the panhandle are in the mold of the "Old South" with it’s military bases making for a natural conservative base. Central Florida, also referred to as the I-4 corridor, is a mix of retired Midwestern retirees, young suburban families and Democratic-leaning Hispanics, ( largely non-Cubans)  I live in Central Florida, and in the 2010 elections saw Central Florida shift slightly more towards conservatism, which I expect to see happen again in 2012. As people learn the truth about the hope and change catch-phrase and see how inflation, gas prices and the over-all cost of living increases are hurting Florida’s huge Senior citizen population, while living in a stagnant economy, Liberals posing as Democrats will feel the wrath of the informed voter in 2012 in Florida. So will progressive-voting Republicans,especially here in Central Florida. South Florida, which has a huge population of Cuban-Americans who  mostly shy away from the Socialistic planks of Liberal ideology and vote conservative, as many of them know just what the Cuban Socialism did to their relatives and country under Fidel Castro and Company. South Florida also contains many white retirees from the Northeast who remain active in politics. Democratic strongholds in places like Jacksonville are among the most impoverished areas in all of Florida, and we can expect to see them turning red in 2012 also. With it’s totally diverse population, huge amount of retirees, and the emergence of the Tea party across Florida, the Hurri-Cain  beat out Romney and Perry in the Florida straw poll by a whopping margin. Before that reality happened, most insiders thought Florida would be a Romney nomination win over Rick Perry. Now it remains a complete toss-up once again, yet one can not deny the conservative message Floridians sent to the country with Cain’s win, and now the moving up of the Primary date much to the dismay of the GOP establishment. This will make the GOP candidates scramble for the Florida Primary vote even more intense. 

    Here is a tip for all of the whining and crying establishment GOP operatives and assorted pundits that deem themselves so self-important as to denounce the state of Florida for taking a stand against the GOP’s elitist pattern of dictating to Floridians, and other states across the country as to how and when they will hold their primaries: Get over it, the Florida Republican Presidential primary of 2012 will be held on Jan 31st, period.