Still Image From Luke Messer's Latest TV Ad

In Indiana’s 6th Congressional District, the GOP Establishment has their man:  Luke Messer.

Messer has been named one of the NRCC’s “Young Guns”.

Messer has raised well over a Half-Million dollars thus far in the 2012 campaign.

Messer has received endorsements from leaders around the state.

It certainly appears that the race is set in stone, and the rest is just a formality…… or is it?

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There is a man gaining huge momentum in the campaign and invading the hometown of both myself, and Luke Messer.

That man is Don Bates Jr.

He is not on the NRCC’s radar.

He has raised only $152,000.

Few outside of the GOP Establishment have predicted his victory

Rolling off the heels of his 2010 Senate Primary loss to former lobbyist Dan Coats, Don Bates is not giving up his fight.  In fact, he looks more motivated now in 2012 than he did in 2010.  The financial adviser from Richmond, Indiana is making bold moves in his bid to represent Indiana in Washington.

The Don Bates Campaign has invaded enemy territory.

Hundreds of signs have been planted all over the fast-growing Indianapolis suburb of Shelbyville – the previously mentioned hometown of opponent Luke Messer.  Not only do the “Bates For Congress” signs outnumber the “Messer For Congress” signs along the major thoroughfares – Don Bates’ signs are larger and more visible than Messer’s.

“The Bates Insurrection” has been launched.

This coup by Bates is not limited to just campaign signs along the side of the road.  Bates looks to be winning the Social Media war, as well.

At the time of this article’s writing, Luke Messer’s Twitter account has only 3 updates in 2012: two in February, and one in early April.  Meanwhile, Don Bates has a steady flow of updates on his Twitter timeline.  The disparity is not quite the same on their Facebook pages, however, as Messer is winning the “Like” battle and updating nearly as frequently as Bates, but not quite.

Candidates at the BSU Debate

Marketing tactics aside, the biggest evidence of “The Bates Insurrection” was during the Ball State University debate on April 17th, 2012.  Don Bates seemed more confident, matter of fact, and more poised than any other candidate on stage, including Messer.

Furthermore, the mere fact that Luke Messer even attended the debate came as a surprise to me, as I was informed in February by a campaign insider that Mr. Messer would not even be attending the BSU debate.

The change in heart by the Messer campaign makes me believe that “The Bates Insurrection” is proving effective, and putting pressure on the one-time “front runner” in the race to replace 6-term congressman Mike Pence – who is now running for Governor.

What will happen when Hoosiers go to the polls on May 8th?  Will “The Bates Insurrection” prevail, or will the NRCC Young Gun meet expectations?

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