photo credit: R. Mitchell, CDN

The media has a “laser-like” focus on the GOP presidential nomination race, analysts are starting to talk about the Senate races, but the House has been all but ignored – and that could lead to another Nancy Pelosi speakership.

According to a new Harris Interactive Poll, a House election held today would have voters selecting a generic Republican 38% of the time and a generic Democrat just as often.

The data break-outs are where the interesting numbers lay. While almost 90% of GOP would vote for their party’s candidate, just 80% of Democrats would. That disparity alone should yield a right-leaning House.. shouldn’t it?

For the right, the key is independents. They would vote for a Democrat 28% of the time compared to 26% of the vote going to the GOP. 15% of independents would vote 3rd party and 30% of them haven’t even figured out how they would vote.

Congressional approval ratings are also at an historical low which could lead to an anti-incumbent campaign to turn the whole House over. Considering that Democrats have a 13% approval and Republican members only enjoy a 10% rating, a blood bath may ensue for the GOP.

The poor rating for Republicans may by in part by dissatisfaction from the TEA parties. The freshman conservative group that was elected in 2010 was sent to D.C. to cut spending, lower taxes and reduce the size of government. Little of that having been achieved and the back-room tactics being used by the GOP leadership to co-opt the movement may be more  reason for the backlash.

Among Republicans, over one-quarter (27%) would vote for Newt Gingrich in the primary while 17% would vote for Mitt Romney and 11% for Ron Paul. Other candidates are all under 10% including Michele Bachman (6%), Rick Perry (3%), Rick Santorum (3%) and Jon Huntsman (1%). One-third of Republicans (32%), however, are still not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,237 adults surveyed online between December 5 and 12, 2011 by Harris Interactive .

Among Independents, 14% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, and 11% would vote for Newt Gingrich. Over two-in-five Independents (43%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the primary. Among Conservatives, one quarter (24%) would vote for Newt Gingrich, 16% for Mitt Romney, and 11% forRon Paul. Just over one-quarter of Tea Party supporters (27%) would vote for New Gingrich in the Republican primary, 15% would vote for Mitt Romney, and 12% for Ron Paul, while 30% are not at all sure.

If the primary was just a two person race, two-in-five Republicans (40%) would vote for Newt Gingrich and three-in-ten would vote for Mitt Romney with 30% not at all sure. Among Tea Party supporters, 44% would vote for the former Speaker and one-quarter (25%) for the former Massachusetts Governor while three-in-ten (31%) say they are not at all sure. Looking at Conservatives, two-in-five (41%) would vote for Newt Gingrich, one-quarter (26%) for Mitt Romney, and one-third (33%) are not at all sure.

Head to head match-ups

While Newt Gingrich may be ahead in the primary race, Mitt Romney makes it a closer race against President Obama. If the presidential election were held today, 43% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 40% would vote for Mitt Romney and 17% are not at all sure. Last month it was a tie, with 41% of U.S. adults saying they would vote for the President and 41% saying they would vote for Mitt Romney.

Looking at the probable swing states for 2012 (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire,North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia), 42% of people from those states would vote for Mitt Romney and 39% would vote for President Obama; 19% are not at all sure.  Among Independents, 41% would vote for Romney and 39% for the President.

Newt Gingrich may now be on top among the Republican nominees, but in a head to head match-up he is further behind the President as 45% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 38% would vote forNewt Gingrich, with 17% saying they are not at all sure.  Looking at Independents, 43% would vote for President Obama, 38% would vote for Newt Gingrich, and 19% are not at all sure.  Among the 2012 swing states, however, it becomes a much closer race with 42% voting for the President and 41% voting forNewt Gingrich.

So What?

One month from now the race for the Republican nomination will probably have a very different look. Iowaand New Hampshire will be in the past and the candidates that remain in the race, having made a decent enough showing in those first states to continue, will  be moving on to South Carolina and Florida. Will it be a two person race between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich? Or, will a third person, maybe Ron Paul, who is the only other candidate in double digits now, move ahead?  How this races moves from there is anyone’s guess, but the current thinking is that this nomination fight will continue into March at least.

TABLE 1
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
“If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 2
ROMNEY VS GINGRICH
“If you were voting in the Republican primary and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3A
ROMNEY VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3B
ROMNEY VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

TABLE 4A
GINGRICH VS OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5B
GINGRICH VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

Among all Americans, two in five like Mitt Romney as a person (40%), over one-third (36%) say they like his track record as governor and one-third (33%) like his political opinions. But over one-third of U.S. adults also say they are not sure about Mitt Romney as a person (34%), not sure about his track record as governor (38%) and not sure about his political opinions (34%).

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,499 adults surveyed online between November 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive .

Among Republicans almost three in five (58%) like Mitt Romney as a person, half (49%) like his track record as governor and 57% like his political opinions. Among Conservatives, these numbers drop a little. Just half of Conservatives like Mitt Romney as a person (49%) and like his political opinions (48%) while just two in five Conservatives like his track record as governor (39%).

When given some statements about Mitt Romney, again there is a little bit of the unknown. Just over half of Americans (54%) say Mitt Romney is an intelligent person with one-third (32%) saying they are not sure and while half (49%) believe his business experience would be an asset, again one-third (32%) are not sure.  Romney has also been charged with “flip-flopping” and 44% of Americans agree that his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to, not his core convictions, with over one-third (36%) not sure about this.

However, just 20% of Americans say Mitt Romney lacks experience and is not qualified to be president with half (48%) disagreeing with that statement but, again, one-third (32%) are not sure. The issue of religion has also been raised and while 52% of Americans say Mitt Romney being Mormon is not an issue, one-quarter say it is (23%) and the same number are not sure (25%). The one thing that evenly divides Americans is if he inspires confidence personally. One third of Americans think Mitt Romney does (35%), one third says he does not (33%), and one-third are not sure (32%).

Among Republicans, two-thirds believe Mitt Romney is intelligent (69%) and that his business experience would be an asset (67%), while over half (53%) say he inspires confidence personally. Just over one-quarter (27%) say his being Mormon is an issue but two in five Republicans (41%) say his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to and not his core convictions. His numbers are a little weaker among Conservatives as just three in five say he is an intelligent person (61%) and that his business experience is an asset (61%) with less than half (46%) agreeing he inspires confidence personally. Slightly over two in five (43%) agree his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to and not his core convictions while one-quarter (26%) say his being Mormon is an issue.

Looking at Mitt Romney’s political ideology, one in ten Americans (8%) say he is too liberal, compared to 15% of Republicans and one in five Conservatives (20%). On the flip side, 16% of U.S. adults say Mitt Romney is too conservative. One-third of Americans (32%) say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative but almost half (45%) are not sure, including one-third of Republicans (34%) and two in five Conservatives (39%).

If Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee, one-third of Americans (33%) would vote for him, 38% would not and 25% are not sure. Two-thirds of Republicans (65%) would vote for him, but just over half of Conservatives (57%) say the same. Two in five Independents (40%) would vote for Mitt Romney while one-third would not (34%) but among Moderates two in five would not vote for him (39%) while 27% would.

So What?
With the Republican primary this year, much can change in a week, let alone three weeks, so it’s still anyone’s guess what will actually happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. But, one thing is certain. For someone who in his second run for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney has not done a great job of defining who he is and what he stands for. Others have defined him and that may be one of the main reasons he has not been able to run away with the nomination, even though he’s been the “front-runner” for almost the whole of 2011.

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; * indicates less than 1%

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio