Tag Archives: Harris Interactive

Harris Poll: Republicans could lose the House

photo credit: R. Mitchell, CDN

The media has a “laser-like” focus on the GOP presidential nomination race, analysts are starting to talk about the Senate races, but the House has been all but ignored – and that could lead to another Nancy Pelosi speakership.

According to a new Harris Interactive Poll, a House election held today would have voters selecting a generic Republican 38% of the time and a generic Democrat just as often.

The data break-outs are where the interesting numbers lay. While almost 90% of GOP would vote for their party’s candidate, just 80% of Democrats would. That disparity alone should yield a right-leaning House.. shouldn’t it?

For the right, the key is independents. They would vote for a Democrat 28% of the time compared to 26% of the vote going to the GOP. 15% of independents would vote 3rd party and 30% of them haven’t even figured out how they would vote.

Congressional approval ratings are also at an historical low which could lead to an anti-incumbent campaign to turn the whole House over. Considering that Democrats have a 13% approval and Republican members only enjoy a 10% rating, a blood bath may ensue for the GOP.

The poor rating for Republicans may by in part by dissatisfaction from the TEA parties. The freshman conservative group that was elected in 2010 was sent to D.C. to cut spending, lower taxes and reduce the size of government. Little of that having been achieved and the back-room tactics being used by the GOP leadership to co-opt the movement may be more  reason for the backlash.

Over One-Quarter of Republicans Would Vote for Newt Gingrich, 17% for Mitt Romney in Primary, but One-Third are Still Not Sure

NEW YORK, Dec. 16, 2011  — Late last year, the race for who would challenge President Obama began and the story evolved a great deal. First, it was would Sarah Palin run or wouldn’t she. Then it was about the rise and fall of Michelle Bachman, then the fall of Newt Gingrich, then the rise and fall ofRick Perry and the rise and fall of Herman Cain. Now less than 20 days until the Iowa caucus, the story is about the rise of Newt Gingrich and how this has turned into a two man race between the former Speaker and Mitt Romney.

Among Republicans, over one-quarter (27%) would vote for Newt Gingrich in the primary while 17% would vote for Mitt Romney and 11% for Ron Paul. Other candidates are all under 10% including Michele Bachman (6%), Rick Perry (3%), Rick Santorum (3%) and Jon Huntsman (1%). One-third of Republicans (32%), however, are still not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,237 adults surveyed online between December 5 and 12, 2011 by Harris Interactive .

Among Independents, 14% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, and 11% would vote for Newt Gingrich. Over two-in-five Independents (43%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the primary. Among Conservatives, one quarter (24%) would vote for Newt Gingrich, 16% for Mitt Romney, and 11% forRon Paul. Just over one-quarter of Tea Party supporters (27%) would vote for New Gingrich in the Republican primary, 15% would vote for Mitt Romney, and 12% for Ron Paul, while 30% are not at all sure.

If the primary was just a two person race, two-in-five Republicans (40%) would vote for Newt Gingrich and three-in-ten would vote for Mitt Romney with 30% not at all sure. Among Tea Party supporters, 44% would vote for the former Speaker and one-quarter (25%) for the former Massachusetts Governor while three-in-ten (31%) say they are not at all sure. Looking at Conservatives, two-in-five (41%) would vote for Newt Gingrich, one-quarter (26%) for Mitt Romney, and one-third (33%) are not at all sure.

Head to head match-ups

While Newt Gingrich may be ahead in the primary race, Mitt Romney makes it a closer race against President Obama. If the presidential election were held today, 43% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 40% would vote for Mitt Romney and 17% are not at all sure. Last month it was a tie, with 41% of U.S. adults saying they would vote for the President and 41% saying they would vote for Mitt Romney.

Looking at the probable swing states for 2012 (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire,North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia), 42% of people from those states would vote for Mitt Romney and 39% would vote for President Obama; 19% are not at all sure.  Among Independents, 41% would vote for Romney and 39% for the President.

Newt Gingrich may now be on top among the Republican nominees, but in a head to head match-up he is further behind the President as 45% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 38% would vote forNewt Gingrich, with 17% saying they are not at all sure.  Looking at Independents, 43% would vote for President Obama, 38% would vote for Newt Gingrich, and 19% are not at all sure.  Among the 2012 swing states, however, it becomes a much closer race with 42% voting for the President and 41% voting forNewt Gingrich.

So What?

One month from now the race for the Republican nomination will probably have a very different look. Iowaand New Hampshire will be in the past and the candidates that remain in the race, having made a decent enough showing in those first states to continue, will  be moving on to South Carolina and Florida. Will it be a two person race between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich? Or, will a third person, maybe Ron Paul, who is the only other candidate in double digits now, move ahead?  How this races moves from there is anyone’s guess, but the current thinking is that this nomination fight will continue into March at least.

 

TABLE 1
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
“If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

         
  Total

 Dec

2011

Political Party Political Philosophy Tea

Party

Support

Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % % %
Mitt Romney 14 17 15 14 16 14 10 15
Newt Gingrich 12 27 4 11 24 8 2 27
Ron Paul 11 11 7 14 11 10 14 12
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 6 1 9 7 * 7 11 2
Michele Bachmann 4 6 1 5 8 3 2 7
Rick Perry 3 3 1 5 4 3 1 4
Rick Santorum 2 3 2 1 3 1 2 3
Not at all sure 49 32 61 43 33 54 58 30

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%

 

 

 

TABLE 2
ROMNEY VS GINGRICH
“If you were voting in the Republican primary and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

  Total Tea

Party

Support

Party ID Philosophy
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % % %
Mitt Romney 31 25 30 34 35 26 33 34
Newt Gingrich 20 44 40 7 19 41 13 6
Not at all sure 49 31 30 60 46 33 54 60

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding


 

TABLE 3A
ROMNEY VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

  Total Oct Total

Nov

Total

Dec

Party ID Philosophy
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % % % %
Mitt Romney 40 41 40 82 8 41 72 34 6
Barack Obama 41 41 43 5 81 39 14 46 79
Not at all sure 18 18 17 13 11 20 13 20 15

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

 

 

 

TABLE 3B
ROMNEY VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

  Total Partisan Swing States
Mod./

Ind.

Cons./

Tea Party

2012 5% in

2008

% % % % %
Mitt Romney 40 38 96 42 43
Barack Obama 43 39 * 39 38
Not at all sure 17 23 4 19 19

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

 

 

 

TABLE 4A
GINGRICH VS OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

  Total

Dec

Party ID Philosophy
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % %
Newt Gingrich 38 80 7 38 72 31 6
Barack Obama 45 7 82 43 15 49 80
Not at all sure 17 12 11 19 13 19 14

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

 


TABLE 5B
GINGRICH VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”

Base: All adults

  Total Partisan Swing States
Mod./

Ind.

Cons./

Tea Party

2012 5% in

2008

% % % % %
Newt Gingrich 38 33 96 41 42
Barack Obama 45 45 * 42 40
Not at all sure 17 22 4 17 18

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response

One in Five Conservatives Believe Mitt Romney Is Too Liberal

NEW YORK, Dec. 14, 2011 — It’s just a few weeks until the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary and the Republican nomination fight is, once again, going through some changes. But, one thing that has remained constant through the past few months is that Mitt Romney has been at or near the top. One reason, however, the former Governor of Massachusetts may not have quite sealed the deal with voters yet is that, even after running for Republican nomination in 2008, people may not yet be sure who he is.

Among all Americans, two in five like Mitt Romney as a person (40%), over one-third (36%) say they like his track record as governor and one-third (33%) like his political opinions. But over one-third of U.S. adults also say they are not sure about Mitt Romney as a person (34%), not sure about his track record as governor (38%) and not sure about his political opinions (34%).

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,499 adults surveyed online between November 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive .

Among Republicans almost three in five (58%) like Mitt Romney as a person, half (49%) like his track record as governor and 57% like his political opinions. Among Conservatives, these numbers drop a little. Just half of Conservatives like Mitt Romney as a person (49%) and like his political opinions (48%) while just two in five Conservatives like his track record as governor (39%).

When given some statements about Mitt Romney, again there is a little bit of the unknown. Just over half of Americans (54%) say Mitt Romney is an intelligent person with one-third (32%) saying they are not sure and while half (49%) believe his business experience would be an asset, again one-third (32%) are not sure.  Romney has also been charged with “flip-flopping” and 44% of Americans agree that his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to, not his core convictions, with over one-third (36%) not sure about this.

However, just 20% of Americans say Mitt Romney lacks experience and is not qualified to be president with half (48%) disagreeing with that statement but, again, one-third (32%) are not sure. The issue of religion has also been raised and while 52% of Americans say Mitt Romney being Mormon is not an issue, one-quarter say it is (23%) and the same number are not sure (25%). The one thing that evenly divides Americans is if he inspires confidence personally. One third of Americans think Mitt Romney does (35%), one third says he does not (33%), and one-third are not sure (32%).

Among Republicans, two-thirds believe Mitt Romney is intelligent (69%) and that his business experience would be an asset (67%), while over half (53%) say he inspires confidence personally. Just over one-quarter (27%) say his being Mormon is an issue but two in five Republicans (41%) say his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to and not his core convictions. His numbers are a little weaker among Conservatives as just three in five say he is an intelligent person (61%) and that his business experience is an asset (61%) with less than half (46%) agreeing he inspires confidence personally. Slightly over two in five (43%) agree his stance on issues depends on who he is talking to and not his core convictions while one-quarter (26%) say his being Mormon is an issue.

Looking at Mitt Romney’s political ideology, one in ten Americans (8%) say he is too liberal, compared to 15% of Republicans and one in five Conservatives (20%). On the flip side, 16% of U.S. adults say Mitt Romney is too conservative. One-third of Americans (32%) say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative but almost half (45%) are not sure, including one-third of Republicans (34%) and two in five Conservatives (39%).

If Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee, one-third of Americans (33%) would vote for him, 38% would not and 25% are not sure. Two-thirds of Republicans (65%) would vote for him, but just over half of Conservatives (57%) say the same. Two in five Independents (40%) would vote for Mitt Romney while one-third would not (34%) but among Moderates two in five would not vote for him (39%) while 27% would.

So What?
With the Republican primary this year, much can change in a week, let alone three weeks, so it’s still anyone’s guess what will actually happen in Iowa and New Hampshire. But, one thing is certain. For someone who in his second run for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney has not done a great job of defining who he is and what he stands for. Others have defined him and that may be one of the main reasons he has not been able to run away with the nomination, even though he’s been the “front-runner” for almost the whole of 2011.

 

TABLE 1
PERCEPTION OF MITT ROMNEY
“Thinking about presidential politics, looking at the list of attributes, please indicate how you feel about each.”
Base: All adults
Total Like (NET) Strongly like Somewhat like Total
Dislike (NET)
Somewhat dislike Strongly dislike Not sure
% % % % % % %
Mitt Romney as a person 40 12 28 26 14 12 34
Mitt Romney’s track record as a governor 36 7 29 26 16 10 38
Mitt Romney’s political opinions 33 8 26 33 16 16 34

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding


TABLE 1A
PERCEPTION OF MITT ROMNEY – SUMMARY OF LIKE
“Thinking about presidential politics, looking at the list of attributes, please indicate how you feel about each.”
Those saying “Strongly/Somewhat like”
Base: All adults
Total Party ID Party Philosophy Swing States
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib. 2012 2008
% % % % % % % % %
Mitt Romney as a person 40 58 30 44 49 37 32 41 41
Mitt Romney’s track record as a governor 36 49 29 41 39 36 31 35 35
Mitt Romney’s political opinions 33 57 18 39 48 31 14 33 34

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio

 

 

TABLE 2
ATTITUDES TOWARDS MITT ROMNEY
“Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements about Mitt Romney.”
Base: All adults
Total Agree (NET) Strongly agree Somewhat agree Total Disagree (NET) Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Not sure
% % % % % % %
He is a very intelligent person 54 17 37 14 8 6 32
His business experience would be an asset 49 15 34 19 11 8 32
His stance on issues depends on who he’s speaking to, not his core convictions 44 18 25 21 14 7 36
He inspires confidence personally 35 8 28 33 18 15 32
His being a Mormon is an issue 23 10 13 52 12 39 25
He lacks experience and is unqualified to be president 20 8 12 48 26 22 32

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding


TABLE 2A
ATTITUDES TOWARDS MITT ROMNEY – SUMMARY OF AGREE
“Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements about Mitt Romney.”
Those saying “Strongly/Somewhat agree”
Base: All adults
Total Party ID Party Philosophy Swing States
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib. 2012 2008
% % % % % % % % %
He is a very intelligent person 54 69 47 60 61 51 50 54 53
His business experience would be an asset 49 67 36 57 61 47 35 49 47
His stance on issues depends on who he’s speaking to, not his core convictions 44 41 51 46 43 41 51 43 41
He inspires confidence personally 35 53 23 40 46 32 25 38 37
His being a Mormon is an issue 23 27 26 20 26 21 24 18 20
He lacks experience and is unqualified to be president 20 13 28 19 17 19 26 19 20

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio

 

TABLE 3
MITT ROMNEY’S POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
“Do you think Mitt Romney…?”
Base: All adults
Total Party ID Party Philosophy Swing States
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib. 2012 2008
% % % % % % % % %
Is too liberal 8 15 3 8 19 3 * 8 7
Is neither too liberal nor too conservative 32 48 20 37 42 30 19 30 29
Is too conservative 16 3 32 12 1 14 45 18 19
Not sure 45 34 45 43 39 53 36 44 45

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; * indicates less than 1%


TABLE 4
VOTING FOR MITT ROMNEY
“If Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee for President, which is closest to the way you think?”
Base: All adults
Total Party ID Party Philosophy Swing States
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons Mod. Lib. 2012 2008
% % % % % % % % %
Would vote for him (NET) 33 65 8 40 57 27 8 36 33
  I definitely would vote for him 16 35 2 17 33 10 2 18 18
  I probably would vote for him 17 30 6 22 24 17 6 18 15
Would not vote for him (NET) 38 12 67 34 15 39 71 36 36
  I probably would not vote for him 13 5 18 14 7 15 17 12 11
  I definitely would not vote for him 25 7 49 20 8 24 55 24 26
I wouldn’t vote at all 5 1 5 4 5 5 4 5 5
Not sure 25 22 20 22 23 29 17 24 26

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida,Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida,Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio