photo credit: R. Mitchell, CDN
The media has a “laser-like” focus on the GOP presidential nomination race, analysts are starting to talk about the Senate races, but the House has been all but ignored – and that could lead to another Nancy Pelosi speakership.
According to a new Harris Interactive Poll, a House election held today would have voters selecting a generic Republican 38% of the time and a generic Democrat just as often.
The data break-outs are where the interesting numbers lay. While almost 90% of GOP would vote for their party’s candidate, just 80% of Democrats would. That disparity alone should yield a right-leaning House.. shouldn’t it?
For the right, the key is independents. They would vote for a Democrat 28% of the time compared to 26% of the vote going to the GOP. 15% of independents would vote 3rd party and 30% of them haven’t even figured out how they would vote.
Congressional approval ratings are also at an historical low which could lead to an anti-incumbent campaign to turn the whole House over. Considering that Democrats have a 13% approval and Republican members only enjoy a 10% rating, a blood bath may ensue for the GOP.
The poor rating for Republicans may by in part by dissatisfaction from the TEA parties. The freshman conservative group that was elected in 2010 was sent to D.C. to cut spending, lower taxes and reduce the size of government. Little of that having been achieved and the back-room tactics being used by the GOP leadership to co-opt the movement may be more reason for the backlash.
A poll run on January 3rd and 4th sought to understand just how America feels about the Occupy parks, streets, tents and jails movement – 24% of them haven’t really been paying much attention to the youthful anarchist/socialist/anti-corporation/anti-bank/pro… well, not really sure what they are for.
24% of responding Americans said that they have pay no attention or very little to the Occupy movement and 58% said they have an unfavorable view of the leaderless, directionless and goal-less movement. To accentuate the point, 51% of those surveyed said the find the Occupy members to be a “public nuisance.
Most Americans have tried to understand the reason for the park-squatting and when Rasmussen asked that question only 24% said that the Occupiers had gotten their message across.
It turns out that a leaderless mob, being co-opted by unions and globalists just isn’t all that effective – who knew?
In a national survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters taken yesterday, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman received the highest two “unfavorable” ratings among the remaining GOP hopefuls.
Rep. Paul had the highest unfavorable rating as 30% of respondents ranked him very unfavorable and another 29% said that he was somewhat unfavorable. A total unfavorable rating of 59% was by far the worst of the group. Front-runners Romney and Santorum had unfavorables of only 26%.
Where things get really bleak for the Representative from Texas is when Rasmussen asked the respondents “Which Republican presidential candidate would be the weakest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election…. Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry?” – the results:
- 5% Romney
- 5% Santorum
- 11% Perry
- 12% Gingrich
- 19% Huntsman
- 36% Paul
Paul actually polled as a weaker candidate than Jon Huntsman when stood up against the current President and in an election where the mantra is “anybody but Obama” it will be difficult to get the nomination if no one believes you can beat the current resident of the White House.
Rasmussen Reports released the first national poll after the Iowa caucuses in which Rick Santorum managed to basically tie front-runner Mitt Romney while on a seriously limited budget.
Mitt Romney held on to the top spot in the poll with 29% while Santorum jumped significantly to 21% of survey respondents. Newt Gingrich pulled in third with just 16% and Ron Paul rounded out the top four with only 12% . Perry and Huntsman both came in with just 4%.
Santorum could have gotten some of his lift from Michele Bachmann supporters needing a new candidate to back. Some support may also be coming from those starting to think that Perry won’t last much longer – but neither of those explain the incredible lift by themselves. Perhaps Santorum has become the candidate for the “anyone but Romney” crowd. Among “very conservative” voters, Santorum out-polled Romney 33% to 18% and he topped Romney by 5% among those who self-identify as TEA Party members.
Romney’s strong support seems to be coming from somewhat-to-less conservative voters of all ages with incomes of over $100k.
As candidates start their attack runs on the leader, Romney, a national poll showing him failing to get much more than 1-in-4 voters into his camp is a cautionary note.
One important piece of information that came out of this poll is that almost one-third of respondents that chose Romney said they could still change their mind – the highest percentage of any candidate in the poll.
Improving greatly over last week’s poll, Mitt Romney is the only Republican candidate in the latest Rasmussen polls to do better than Obama and he has the largest lead of any named candidate in this race.
In the previous week’s poll, Obama had held a 3 point lead over the former New Hampshire governor. This week, Romney takes a 6% lead over the President.
Each of the candidates were polled directly against Obama in a separate poll for each one. All but one of the polls were held from December 2nd for Huntsman up to December 28th for Romney. The one older poll is for Gary Johnson who has now dropped his candidacy for the GOP nomination.
Romney shows high favorability with men, but woman would choose the current President by a 6 point margin. His lead with independents is a significant 16 points over Obama.
Considering Romney’s centrist positions, poor scoring with gun rights groups, confusing stances on the right to life and a willingness to impose a health care mandate on a governed population, it may be some surprise that Romney is still able to command a 75%-25% lead over the president. The 50 point lead may be less about Romney and more a demonstration of the feeling on the right that they would vote for “anybody but Obama” (a.k.a ABO).
In his latest match-up with the president, Romney holds a 20-point lead among male voters but trails by six among female voters. The Republican posts a 45% to 29% lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.
Not surprisingly, the 10% of Americans who trust politicians more than citizens favor Obama with 65% while main street voters would choose the Republican 51% of the time and Obama a paltry 31%
There is some contention between Conservatives, Republicans, Libertarians and Tea Party members. Just how will the primary vote go? Well, that’s up to you. What kind of candidate are you looking for?