Hillary Clinton’s campaign is making huge advertising buys in states that had been considered safe for her in 2016.
Hillary’s campaign is now dropping large amounts of money in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Michigan.
Virginia and Colorado had shown well for Hillary for most of the campaign season and her team had pulled advertising from those states several weeks ago.
Michigan and New Mexico have been safe Democratic states for decades, but Trump and Clinton must have seen something in internal polling to make a red-shift a likely possibility. Trump has likewise increased spending in those states.
All of the polls of New Mexico likely voters were concluded before the FBI announcement, but Clinton held a commanding 8-9 point lead over Trump so the sudden rush to spend money in the state indicates that the campaigns know something the external polls didn’t tell them.
Clinton’s concerns in New Mexico and Colorado may be one in the same. While early voting data show that more democrats are casting ballots in those states than republicans, which name got chosen on the ballot won’t be known until November 8th. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are more favored by democrat voters than former republicans. Johnson was New Mexico’s governor and Colorado is close enough where he’s more familiar. If Stein and Johnson combine for just 10 points in New Mexico, the state could go red for the first time in decades.
Virginia polling has been trending away from Hillary with the last few giving the democrat a lead in the low single-digits. Tim Kaine’s showing in the VP debate may also have tamped enthusiasm in the Old Dominion state.
The Michigan spend is harder to explain. It may be that the rust belt is turning harder for Trump’s jobs, trade and safety message than external polls have measured.
The sudden return of precious resources shows that Clinton’s camp is not as sure of a win as they were just a few days ago – even in states that were considered a lock-up.