These new polls continue to indicate the Trump is gaining or at least holding ground in some key battleground states while Hillary continues her catastrophic collapse.
First, let’s give Mrs. Clinton some good news. Florida is still a toss-up while New York, Illinois and California are still solidly behind their ailing pied piper.
The rest of the polls … not so much good news for the struggling Democrat.
Nevada has gone Trump
Out of the last four polls that put Trump and Hillary in a two-way race, all four put Donald on top with the latest one from Fox News and a Tuesday poll from Rasmussen both showing a 3 point lead over Clinton. Considering the trend, the strength of the pollsters and the national polling averages showing a declining Clinton – Nevada is now leaning GOP in our electoral analysis.
The latest Fox News poll shows that Hillary has failed to make an inroads into Trump’s lead. Trump has a 5-point lead and Clinton has been unable to capitalize on the liberal Republican governor of Ohio’s refusal to support the GOP candidate.
Wisconsin stays toss-up
A Marquette poll released today showed that HIllary has failed to top Trump outside the margin of error in the poll. In a 4-way race, Hillary tops Trump by only 3 points in a poll with a 4.4 point margin of error.
The Fox News poll and left-leaning PPP poll both confirmed that North Carolina is indeed leaning GOP. Hillary cancelling her scheduled appearance in the liberal bastion of Chapel Hill, NC probably won’t help her going forward.
Maine is a mess for Hillary
Maine has a different manner of proportioning its electors than any other save Nebraska. One elector is selected for the winner in each of two Congressional District (CD) and two electors are awarded for whomever gets the majority of votes in the state.
A set of MPRC polls shows that Maine, as a whole is a toss-up (2 electors) and CD2 is firmly in Trump’s court (1 elector.) That’s three electors that should all be in Hillary’s column that are either toss-up or going to Trump.
I am also starting to consider Hillary’s failure to hold on to the black vote and poor rally attendance in our poll weighting and analysis. Clinton was barely able to fill a hall that could hold no more than 200 people in a heavy blue state and struggling to fill a small gym at an outreach center in the battleground of Florida indicate that the polls may be counting on a different voter turnout mix than may actually occur.
With all factors considered, tonight’s map is thus (yeah, I really said ‘thus’):
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