A tropical storm just off the southeastern U.S. coast is being given a 90% chance of strengthening into a tropical storm. This would be the second named storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.
Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to show signs of organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT this afternoon. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
The storm will be named Bonnie once it strengthens to maximum sustained winds of at least 39mph which will categorize the storm as a tropical storm.
All current models show the storm making landfall in South Carolina and most show the storm then turning northward and impacting central North Carolina.