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New poll shows Trump, Bush lead on major issues

8-18-15 CNN poll resultsA CNN/ORC poll released today shows that Donald Trump and Jeb Bush hold the most support and are the most-liked candidates on important issues.

Trump led the GOP field with 25% of those polled saying that they would vote for him if the election were held today while Jeb Bush held on to second place in the poll at 13% with all other candidates down in the single digits.

The top two candidate shared many other leading statistics as both Trump and Bush were rated the most “unfavorable” 59% and 56% respectively and both have the most visibility. Only 1% of those polled said they didn’t know who Trump was while 6% were unfamiliar with Jeb bush. The negative sentiment us unlikely to quickly change as there are very few voters that haven’t seen and made up their minds about these two candidates.

The poll showed where Trump is separating himself from the rest of the GOP candidate field. While Jeb Bush came in second on every issue, Trump garnered at least 16 points more than the former governor on everything but social issues. Trump pulled 45% on economy, 44% on immigration, 32% on ISIS but only 18% on social issues “such as abortion and same-sex marriage.”

Likely an artifact of the huge amount of negative sentiment against Donald Trump, most of those polled believe that the Republicans have a better chance of winning the general election with “someone else.” Only 38% believe that Trump is the best chance the GOP has for retaking the White House.

And finally, we apply the CDN T3 averaging formula to better understand the candidate’s chances of taking the nomination. Unlike other averages, T3 takes negative sentiment into account not just positive support.  While it doesn’t show pure popularity, it does expose otherwise hidden weaknesses in candidates.

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Ben Carson 18.5
Marco Rubio 16.3
Donald Trump 16.0
Carly Fiorina 14.5
Scott Walker 13.6
Ted Cruz 13.3
Jeb Bush 12.4
Mike Huckabee 11.4
John Kasich 9.4
Chris Christie 8.7
Rand Paul 8.0
Rick Perry 7.5
Rick Santorum 7.2
Bobby Jindal 6.7
Lindsey Graham 2.6
George Pataki 2.3
Jim Gilmore 0.2
Tier One (aiming for the top spot) The top tier includes Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Carly Fiorina . Candidates in our top tier are possible contenders for a poll leading spot (or already have it) with only a single event separating them from that possibility.
Tier Two (Sinking and Rising, but still in the mix)Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, JOhn Kasich, Rand Paul and Chris Christie fill out the second tier. These candidates are still viable and will be seeing financial and political support while in this tier. Candidates in this group could move either way in coming weeks with press appearances, advertising or statements. According to this poll, these aren’t in the forefront of most voter’s thoughts, but they aren’t to be written off quite yet.

Tier Three (Running out of support, time and money)

This poll places Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Jim Gilmore and George Pataki in our third tier. All of then candidates in this tier registered 2% or less support from those polled. While the other tiers see candidates moving between them, this one is consistent with recent polls that showed these candidates struggling to get traction. Candidates in the third tier need to get reverse course quickly or every resource a campaign needs to be successful will be out of their reach.

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About R. Mitchell

Rich Mitchell is the Sr. Managing Editor of Conservative Daily News. His posts may contain opinions that are his own and are not necessarily shared by Anomalous Media, CDN, staff or .. much of anyone else. Find him on twitter, facebook and