It’s taken a ton of number crunching, poll watching, table pivoting, numerically obsessive analysis – but finally, I’ve been able to produce a map predicting the outcome of the 2012 Presidential election without leaving a single toss-up state in the map.
In my analysis, I gave Ohio to Obama as even the most right-leaning polls have Obama with a small advantage in the state. I never had Michigan in-play as many others did and here it’s blue – just as it will be.
Pennsylvania goes to Obama as the winter storm isn’t likely to keep the Dems in big cities away from the polls.
The most controversial calls in the prediction are probably Nevada and Iowa. Iowa is heavily rural and a Conservative leaning state with a high-proportion of independent voters – a segment Romney has polled 59% to 37% over Obama.
Nevada went the President’s way as I could find no poll of any methodology that gave me reason for deep study. Looking at the early voting and registration totals, there is little hope for a Romney victory in the Silver State.
New Hampshire was a tough call. Romney’s other home state and one completely reliant on Obama energy to carry him. I may be wrong on this one, but I’m giving it to the President.
The outcome of the election, according to my analysis is President-elect Romney with 273 electoral votes to ex-President Obama’s 265.