Gallup poll shows most polls weighted incorrectly
Gallup released a poll indicating the make-up of the American electorate for the 2012 election today. If the survey results are accurate, almost every poll conducted so far of likely voters has been weighted wrong and the outcome of the election could be much different that pollsters are reporting.
The survey shows that while in 2008 voters were 54% Democratic and 42% Republican, the 2012 mix of likely voters is 49% Republican and only 46% Democrat. A massive swing by any measure and in complete disagreement with major polls that have Democrats weighted heavier by anywhere between 3 and 7 points. Even with those liberal weightings, Romney is besting the President or at least tied in most of the battleground states. If a more accurate weighting was used, these results would be entirely different.
The Gallup survey showed that even though ethnic demographics are largely unchanged for the 2012 election, voter alignment is shifting greatly. Internal polls by the Obama administration are likely showing similar results which explains the flurry of smallish, insulting attacks such as the “bulls**ter* name-calling from the President in recent days.
Hispanic voters are shown to increase by 1% and black voters to decrease by 1%. Male voters are showing a 1% as do younger voters. None of these small changes are enough to create the drastic change in the polling data.
When going back to 2004, the electorate was dead even at 48%-48% Democrat-Republican. 2008 looks like an anomaly where Republican leaners shifted to the left and helped Obama gain the White House. After being disappointed on the economy, failure to get Congress working again, a bad health care bill and mile-high deficits, a reversal of that shift is developing.
It appears as though previously leaning Democrats are now leaning Republican – something other pollsters have chosen to ignore.