Iowa Caucuses in a “Nut”shell
The giant sucking sound you may be hearing coming from the general direction of the mid-west is the sound of every politician, pundit, reporter and talking head bolting the Hawkeye state like a young boy caught with the farmer’s daughter. After the candidates that ‘cared so much for Iowa’, haul cookies out of the state for places east, we are left to interpret yet another set of baffling caucus numbers, now consistent with the “first in the nation” event. But if this year’s tally doesn’t prove to the world that Iowa has “jumped the shark” politically, nothing will.
After a contest that had more lead changes than a NASCAR race, we get what amounts to a tie between Mitt “please vote for me this time” Romney and Rick “the last un-Romney candidate who hasn’t been shot at” Santorum. Reynolds Wrap spokesman Ron Paul comes in third, followed by a limping Newt Gingrich and three other candidates that just should whip out the hari-kari sword and get it over with.
And what does it all mean in a post-winner take all style of delegate allocation caucus? NADA, ZIP, ZILTCH, ZERO! Did I mention it doesn’t mean diddly??
Here’s what you need to know about Iowa and the campaign season so far, especially if you are a conservative – circular firing squads kill people!
Perfecting the technique that worked oh so well in 2008, Republicans, in their attempts at “vetting” the candidates have once again shot down every viable prospect leaving only whack jobs and moderates who know when to duck. This brand of head-hunting left the dead political bodies of Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and the like strewn along the side of the road to the White House and paved the way for John “back to Mordor with you conservative Hobbits” McCain to fight the man, the myth, the manufactured legend – Barack Obama. Given the sentiments and economic woes of the time, only a conservative could have defeated the “change” machine and anyone who even resembled one was splayed out on the side of the road.
Nary a week into 2012, we have run from the same playbook, thinking this time it will work. Need I remind folks of the famous definition of insanity?
So, here’s what you really need to take from Iowa, what we should do about and what will probably happen:
Santorum & Romney tie, but Romney will win New Hampshire in a wash (Santorum may be a teeny bump, but nothing big) and that will propel him to likely victory in South Carolina. Santorum has NO shot in New Hampshire and will likely split the South Carolina vote with Gingrich, both with lose to Romney. Paul will do well enough in each contest to convince himself to stay in the race, but he will not win ONE state, ever. But for an ego like his, this will be fuel for his third party fire, which will pretty much secure the general election for Obama. Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman are done and should all suspend their candidacies now (looks like Bachmann is doing this as we speak), coalesce around either Gingrich or Santorum, shoot the other candidate and hope the anti-Romney chosen one can prevail.
My prediction: egos won’t let that happen, the conservative vote will again be split, Romney is nominated, Paul runs under the “Tin Foil” Party flag, Obama wins second term, America loses.
I have never been one to proclaim himself as a prognosticator and these are indeed dangerous times to even be in the business, but this isn’t really hard to call.
We made this bed folks! In the name of vetting, we slaughtered every good candidate, thinking we could survive a circular firing squad. In all likelihood, we will reap the harvest – Obama in the White House until 2016 and worse, Obamacare truly getting its meat hooks into the economy, never to be expunged.
There is one last shot: Put Reagan back in his coffin and let him rest in peace. Re-evaluate the living with the realization that NONE of them are Ronaldus Maximus and pick the closest one to him. Restore Reagan’s 11th commandment and immediately push anyone who violates it from this point forward off the political cliff. Bottom line, if your guy can’t win without having to pull down another one of his fellow Republicans, he doesn’t deserve to occupy the office.
We’ve got about a week to do this folks so quit pointing fingers, throwing rocks, put the kool-aid down and take off the tin-foil hats. Vote with conscious and confidence with visions of Reagan’s morning in America dancing in your heads. Only then will this road truly lead to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and not to Perdition.