The Republican roller-coaster ride, also known as the 2012 GOP Presidential primaries took another wild swing recently – this time into the dark tunnel known as Ron Paul Libertarianism as he leaped into the lead in some polls in Iowa last week.
The race currently appears to be a three-way cliff hanger between Romney,
Gingrich, Santorum and Paul with Perry way back. Santorum’s recent rise to third place in the polling appears to have come at the expense of Gingrich, as $9 million dollars of attack ads run by Romney and Paul have also succeeded in pushing Gingrich backwards.
The Iowa caucuses are just a few days away, and basically there is no clear-cut frontrunner right now. Regardless of who wins in the Iowa caucuses, the only true beneficiary of this charade will be none other than the State of Iowa, as the economy has received a much needed boost from the roller-coaster ride of so many different candidates leading at one time or another, thus resulting in more campaign spending across the state. This appears to be the sole reason for the state of Iowa demanding to be first in line every year , with their caucus being held this year on Jan 3rd.
Should Ron Paul win Iowa, while it would give him some temporary momentum heading into the New Hampshire primaries, the chances of Paul beating the former Governor of Massachusetts in any Northeastern state are somewhere between slim and none. Mike Huckabee won Iowa too, and yet he was trampled in the big winner-take-all states of Florida, N.Y., and California. By the way, after Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, John McCain won all of the Iowa delegates votes, as was written here at CNN Politics. “The history of the Iowa caucuses is actually a case study in the power of the media to shape — or warp, depending on your point of view — the nomination contest.”
While a victory in early Iowa gives the media plenty of firepower to skew the nominating process and manipulate voter’s perceptions of just who really is the best candidate, keep in mind that John McCain all but ignored the Iowa caucuses in 2008, yet won all of the Iowa delegates votes, as the majority of big states got behind McCain. Iowa has a history of falling in line with whatever candidate the establishment GOP pushes for later on in the election year. They also did this with Obama over Hillary in 2008, although Obama won the Iowa caucuses and the media used that to push for him over Hillary.
Mitt Romney is spending massive amounts of campaign cash in Iowa right up until the night of the caucus voting. Likewise with Ron Paul, Gingrich and now Santorum can be expected to try to buy national media attention with a win in Iowa. Yet as John McCain has proven, it could be all for naught, as winning the Iowa caucus doesn’t even assure the winner of receiving the delegates vote in the end. Romney has plenty of cash, and is hoping to knock out Gingrich as they head to New Hampshire, similar to what Obama did to Clinton in 2008 as seen in the above-linked CNN article:
This time around, Mitt Romney’s camp has tried to keep media expectations low in Iowa — never an easy trick when you’re seen as the national frontrunner and are therefore expected to compete everywhere. A first-place Iowa finish for the former Massachusetts governor — overcoming regional, religious, and ideological obstacles — could set Romney up for a huge win the following week in neighboring New Hampshire. It could also signal an early end to the nomination fight. (emphasis mine)
Should Ron Paul win in Iowa, it will result in one thing and only one thing: It will help Mitt Romney knock off the only serious contender to his status as the frontrunner, Mr. Newt Gingrich. This is the media game known as the Iowa caucuses, and it is a total disservice to conservative voters across America. For true conservative voters the choice is as simple as choosing between concrete or jello in 2012. The concrete solutions and legislative accomplishments that resulted in the first rock-solid balanced budget in 40 years in America of Newt Gingrich, or the non-defined, wishy-washy moderate bowl of jello known as Mitt Romney.