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What the "Volumn" Poll says about the Candidates, "Michele Bachmann:Front runner"

There is an internet poll being run called the "2012 Dream Ticket" [http://2012dreamticket.com/]. I give a little more credibility to this Poll than many because the controls that are in place. 

First, you must change computers or go to the trouble of creating a new ISP Address, or go through and change email addresses.  I don’t believe most political hacks have that much willingness. 

Second, professional polls may be even better control, but extrapolate from "sample".  This site uses cold hard tallying of preference, just like an elections, to gather their results.

Third, these number are vast equaling 95,000 plus inputs to-date.

Fourth, It is a rolling tally that tabulates real responses as real events unfold.

Finally, the person imputing their preference can select any combination of president and vice-president.

Again, I happen to like this system, this early in the campaign process.  Following is an analysis of all data from 95,099 inputs with 944 different combinations of President and VP, as I viewed the data yesterday.

Scope of Analysis

Taking raw data from the source I filtered each listing for President for frequency.  In other words, if Michele Bachmann was select for president with Rick Santorum as VP and then selected by someone else for president with Herman Cain as VP I tabulated all of those instances where she was select for president.  This was done without any bias for every candidate.

This task was done again for every combination, using the VP slot as the control element.  Then the data was filtered to include only active declared candidate for president.  That resulted in analysis of 63,000 plus responses.  No small task, if you get my drift.

Results of the Analysis

First I want to give my disclaimers.  I depended on a data set outside my control, but which I believe is reasonably controlled.  Also, even though my analytical methods for cross-tabulating was done under my UNIFORMLY  applied  practices, other could easily use equally valid testing of data.

Data Interpretation

As the above chart shows Michele Bachmann is the top choice among respondents to be on the presidential ticket.  Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney round out the top five.  Rick Perry leads for presidential choice, again with Bachmann strongly present, beat the other top five contenders.

My interpretation of the results suggest that Rep. Michele Bachmann’s message is resonating most strongly among people interested in politics in general.  Further, I suggest that Herman Cain is trending upward as a result of his performance in the recent Florida Debate and straw poll win.  Rick Perry remains strong, and it appears to be too early to determine if he is actually trending down as the commercial polls are suggesting.

Here is a view of the raw data results.

 

Michele Bachmann 10566 16.6% 23993 51.4% 34559 31.3%
Rick Perry 25801 40.4% 3214 6.9% 29015 26.2%
Herman Cain 8541 13.4% 11359 24.3% 19900 18.0%
Ron Paul 8077 12.7% 1686 3.6% 9763 8.8%
Mitt Romney 7305 11.4% 1609 3.4% 8914 8.1%
Newt Gingrich 2257 3.5% 2220 4.8% 4477 4.0%
Rick Santorum 939 1.5% 1691 3.6% 2630 2.4%
Gary Johnson 125 0.2% 565 1.2% 690 0.6%
John Huntsman 226 0.4% 384 0.8% 610 0.6%
    63837 100.0% 46721 100.0% 110558 100.0%

The following graphs display the results in alternate views

Line graph

 

Pie Chart

Conclusion

At this point Michele Bachmann is much stronger than national media and polls would suggest.  Perry has lost momentum, as the media suggest.  Herman Cain is rising as a viable candidate.  His showing in the next three outings (debates, straw polls) will determine his staying power.  Ron Paul has flat-lined at this level.  Romney will remain a strong force, if Cain falters.  People will hold their noses and support him.  Newt Gingrich is both a brilliant man and a brilliant campaigner.  If he can raise sufficient fund (and manages them wisely) he remains a wild card.  People are confident in his ability to out-think, out-perform, and out-debate Barack Obama.

 

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