President Obama Would Lose if Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani Was the Nominee

By | July 26, 2011

Republican field problem is one of recognition – most are unknown

NEW YORK, July 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ – By this time next summer the Republican candidate who will challenge President Obama will be known but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalized. With the “will-he-or-she-run-questions” still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.

Obviously because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani, both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Even among Republicans, many declared candidates do not have majorities familiar with them. Tim Pawlenty (33%), Rick Santorum (31%), Herman Cain (29%), and Jon Huntsman (15%) all have one-third of Republicans or less familiar with them.

With this in mind, it’s not surprising then that among Republicans over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul(5%). Among Independents there is a three tie for “first place” between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney(10%) and Ron Paul (10%).  But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.

Against President Obama

Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time.  President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.

So What?

Right now the Republican party needs to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.

TABLE 1AREPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY“How familiar are you with each of the following people?”

Base: All adults

Familiar (NET) Very familiar Somewhat familiar Not familiar (NET) Not very familiar Not at all familiar
% % % % % %
Sarah Palin 86 48 38 14 8 5
Rudy Giuliani 75 37 39 25 11 14
Newt Gingrich 72 35 37 28 14 13
Mitt Romney 67 29 38 33 16 16
Ron Paul 52 19 33 48 21 27
Michele Bachmann 50 19 31 50 18 32
Rick Perry 30 13 17 70 20 50
Tim Pawlenty 28 9 19 72 22 50
Rick Santorum 28 10 18 72 20 52
Herman Cain 22 7 15 78 18 60
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 15 4 11 85 22 63
Gary Johnson 8 3 5 92 18 74
Thaddeus McCotter 8 3 5 92 15 77
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 1BREPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY“How familiar are you with each of the following people?”

Summary of those saying “Very familiar” or “Somewhat familiar”

Base: All adults

Total Party ID Philosophy
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % %
Sarah Palin 86 88 89 89 85 86 91
Rudy Giuliani 75 77 77 78 74 74 80
Newt Gingrich 72 76 74 76 76 69 74
Mitt Romney 67 74 65 73 69 65 70
Ron Paul 52 55 50 60 54 48 59
Michele Bachmann 50 50 50 55 53 43 59
Rick Perry 30 38 26 30 37 26 29
Tim Pawlenty 28 33 25 33 32 25 33
Rick Santorum 28 31 27 32 33 23 32
Herman Cain 22 29 17 25 32 16 21
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 15 15 17 16 17 11 23
Gary Johnson 8 11 7 8 9 7 8
Thaddeus McCotter 8 8 7 8 6 8 7
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION“If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Total March 2011 Total May 2011 Total July 2011 Party ID Philosophy
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % % % %
Rudy Giuliani 8 8 11 14 11 10 10 12 13
Mitt Romney 10 10 11 14 12 10 11 11 13
Sarah Palin 7 5 8 12 7 5 9 8 7
Ron Paul NA 6 7 5 5 10 6 6 8
Rick Perry NA NA 5 8 1 6 10 2 2
Michele Bachmann 2 2 4 6 2 6 8 3 2
Jon Huntsman, Jr. NA 1 3 2 4 2 1 2 9
Herman Cain NA 2 3 4 1 4 5 3 1
Tim Pawlenty 2 2 1 4 * 1 3 1 *
Newt Gingrich 5 4 1 3 * 1 3 * 1
Rick Santorum 1 * 1 1 1 * 1 1 *
Thaddeus McCotter NA NA * * * 1 * 1 *
Gary Johnson NA 1 * * 1 * 1 * *
Not at all sure 45 42 44 28 53 42 34 51 44
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.
TABLE 3A2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICANCANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA

“Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the

Republican nominee running against President Obama in the

2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?”

Base: All adults

Would vote for
PresidentObama TheRepublicannominee
% %
Thaddeus McCotter 57 43
Gary Johnson 56 44
Herman Cain 56 44
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 55 45
Rick Santorum 55 45
Rick Perry 54 46
Michele Bachmann 54 46
Tim Pawlenty 54 46
Newt Gingrich 54 46
Sarah Palin 54 46
Ron Paul 50 50
Mitt Romney 49 51
Rudy Giuliani 47 53
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3B2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA“Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?”

Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee

Base: All adults

Total March 2011 Total May 2011 Total July 2011 Party ID Philosophy TeaPartySupport
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % % % % %
Rudy Giuliani 51 51 53 89 24 56 84 48 19 87
Mitt Romney 49 49 51 87 21 55 84 45 19 87
Ron Paul NA 45 50 83 18 57 82 42 19 85
Sarah Palin 42 42 46 79 20 48 78 40 13 83
Newt Gingrich 44 44 46 82 15 49 81 37 15 82
Tim Pawlenty 44 42 46 83 15 49 80 38 13 83
Michele Bachmann 41 42 46 81 18 49 79 39 13 83
Rick Perry NA NA 46 82 17 48 80 38 14 84
Rick Santorum 43 43 45 81 15 48 79 37 14 83
Jon Huntsman, Jr. NA 41 45 81 16 46 77 37 14 81
Herman Cain NA 41 44 79 15 46 77 37 12 81
Gary Johnson NA 43 44 80 15 45 78 36 12 80
Thaddeus McCotter NA NA 43 79 15 44 77 36 12 80
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in th at poll.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J40488
Q1218, 1225, 1230, 1240, 1250

The Harris Poll ® #87, July 26, 2011 
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

Conservative Daily News allows a great deal of latitude in the topics contributors choose and their approaches to the content. We believe that citizens have a voice - one that should be heard above the mass media. Readers will likely not agree with every contributor or every post, but find reasons to think about the topic and respond with comments. We value differing opinions as well as those that agree. Opinions of contributors are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of CDN, Anomalous Media or staff. Click here if you'd like to write for CDN.
Put This Story in your Circles and Share with your Friends

4 thoughts on “President Obama Would Lose if Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani Was the Nominee

  1. Bryan

    Well, Despite having 15% fewer republicans aware of who he was than Mitt Romney, Ron Paul was only 1% behind him in the General Election vs Obama poll. Seems like the GOP picked the wrong candidate.

  2. Jim Polichak

    If the Republican party insists on nominating a candidate who rejects Global Warming and Evolution because “faith” is more important the reality he will loose and he will deserve to loose.

  3. C. Glasl

    Ron Paul is the best chance… perhaps only half of the Republicans like him, but all would choose him over Obama, all Libertarians like him, and most Independents will vote for him, some Democrats will even vote for him, and some Green Party will vote for him. He is definately Electable. the best part? He will be what this country needs right now in terms of fiscal responsibility. He is not flashy, he is not a showman, but he is a superior statesman, and a Patriotic American. No flip-flops, just good solid fiscal conservatism.

  4. Paul Roy

    This should be the reason to nominate Romney, just becasue he will beat Obama. Romney is a RINO and it would be a big mistake to nominate him.

Comments are closed.