Looking forward to the 2012 Election Cycle
The midterm elections on November 2, 2010 are just the warm-up act. The main event occurs two years later on November 6, 2012. That’s when The United States of America will mark ballots in perhaps the most important vote since the creation of the nation. At stake will be the Presidency, 33 seats in the Senate and the entire House of Representative. Two things stand out in the 2012 election: whether the country rejects Obama’s bid for a second term and the socialist agenda he would continue to push, and the possibility of the Republicans gaining a veto-proof majority in the senate. Think that is impossible? Think again. Here’s the breakdown of the 2012 election landscape.
The 2010 elections merely represent the opportunity for the conservatives to erect a congressional firewall against Obama’s communist agenda. The next Congress may very well be nothing but a firmly entrenched cork in Obama’s bottle. Don’t expect the Republicans to pass any major legislation given Obama’s threat of a veto. But don’t count that as a defeat. Merely preventing Obama from enacting any more of his radical agenda constitutes a victory for both conservatives and for America.
The 2012 presidential election represents the real chance to reverse course. The Obamabots will recover their base in 2012, as what usually happens in Presidential election cycles. But this time, unlike 2008, they will engage with a fully enraged conservative base. The Democrats will fight a heroic race, but Obama is radioactive. He will lose – Unless, of course, Hillary Clinton beats him in the Democratic Primary. In that case, she will lose the general election. Different Face, Same Communism.
With 33 seats up for grabs, the 2012 senate campaign promises to become a ferocious blood-letting for control of the upper chamber of Congress. A look at the numbers reveals that the Republicans have a distinct advantage. There will be 19 Democrats looking to defend their seats as opposed to just 10 Republicans. Additionally, two independents that caucus with the Democrats will also be forced to defend their seats in the Senate. They are Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, and the socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
As if that weren’t enough, there will also be two special elections in this senatorial election cycle: The party holding the Class I New York seat (currently held by the Democrat Kristin Gillibrand) will be decided in 2010, as will the Class I West Virginia seat. The winners of these two special elections on November 2, 2010 will have to stand for re-election just two years later – in the 2012 elections. This means that a grand total of at least 22 senators left of center will be defending their seats.
If we assume that in 2010 the Democrats retain control of the Senate by a majority of 51 to 49, then the Republicans will need to win 17 additional seats in 2012 to gain a veto-proof majority in the majority. This isn’t an impossible dream. It will be very difficult for the Republicans to top the 66 mark, but it is most assuredly within the realm of reason. What makes it possible is the fervor of the Tea Party. The uprising of conservative voters throughout the country has gone viral. It is relatively safe to assume that the outrage of the conservative base will continue for the next two years because Obama is not likely to govern from the center. Obama is expected to continue to be the Democrats’ own worst enemy. Obama’s Marxist communist view and agenda will continue to rally the conservative troops. And the conservatives, i.e., the Tea Party members, should only grow in political power as the Obama agenda continues to take its toll on the economy and on the basic freedoms and liberties of the American people.
Let’s look at the 2012 Senate campaigns in more detail:
Democratic Incumbent Elections
Dianne Feinstein of California
If Barbara Boxer has to fight off Carly Fiorina just imagine what kind of candidate the Republicans are going to throw at Feinstein. It is going to be another battle for the ages. Boxer appears to be holding off Fiorina by a precious few percentage points. But if California continues to flush itself down the toilet, and there is no indication the flushing is going to end any time soon, Feinstein is going to have some serious explaining to do to the voters in 2012. There are strong signs that the further down the socialist/communist road the Democrats push both California and the country, the larger and more ferocious the Tea Party grows. Boxer is leading Fiorina by just a few percentage points against Fiorina. Given that momentum is on the GOP side of the aisle, it could be possible that it will be Feinstein in 2012, instead of Boxer in 2010 that loses a California senate seat to the Republicans.
Tom Carper of Delaware
What can you say to a state that prefers a communist for Senate in 2010? These voters aren’t going to change, America. Chalk this one up for the Democrats in 2012. Carper wins, regardless of opponent.
Bill Nelson of Florida
Yes, he was an Astronaut. Yes, he’s another liberal lawyer (J.D., University of Virginia), and yes, he’s been a Congressman prior to his Senate career. But, Nelson has to face the same voters who are on the verge of putting Marco Rubio in the Senate. This one is going to lean Republican. Oh yeah, and who knows what tricks America’s only orange politician will conjure up. It appears Crist is going down to defeat in 2010. Who knows what damage he could do to Nelson if Crist suddenly discovers his inner Donkey? Talk about a Rainbow Coalition! Advantage goes to the GOP on this one.
Danial Akaka of Hawaii
What is it with Hawaii, anyway? You can visit your local McDonald’s there and get happy on an order or two of SPAM. I’m not kidding. That greasy meat is on the menu in the Islands. And Akaka will be on the menu too, come 2012. And we can fully expect the Hawaiian populace to vote for another piece of greasy meat. Put this one in the bag for the liberals. Would you like fries with that?
Ben Cardin of Maryland
Cardin won in a landslide in 2006, pulling in 55% of all votes cast. What is it with the Northeast? Must be something in the water because you move on over to another watershed and you get an entirely different kind of gusher. But Cardin is tightly tapped into the pipes that are feeding liberals in the kooky part of the kingdom. Give it up for Cardin! This loser is a winner in the great state of Maryland – the land of the never-ending food stamps.
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Believe it or not, this is a race the Republicans can win. Have you seen the poll numbers coming out of Michigan? This one is competitive. Stabenow has a fight on her hands. Yes, the Democrats gave us what is left of the once great city of Detroit. But remember, Michigan, once upon a time, also gave us George Romney. There’s enough pain in Michigan right now that enough of the voters are waking up to make it a battleground state. This leans Donkey, but perhaps those Michigan voters aren’t going to lean so far in 2012 that the Tilt alarm goes off on their pinball machine. It will be difficult for the GOP to win but it is not impossible thanks to Barack Obama.
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
I was a Minnesota resident in 2006 and proudly voted against this Obama clone with ugly glasses. And in 2012 expect those Minnesota Nice voters to rally against those ugly glasses – they have no intention of making a spectacle of themselves again. They’re still living down the Al Franken debacle. This one is at least an even contest, perhaps even slightly leaning to the GOP. It will be a dogfight, but the Republicans have a real shot at this one. Just remember, GOP, you better assign poll watchers at every polling place throughout the state – remember the snow job Franken pulled to get in. Expect a replay of the dirty tricks, GOP, and be prepared for the inevitable repeat in 2012.
Clair McCaskill of Missouri
Talk about road kill, McCaskill is going to get gutted in 2012. Missouri has had enough of the misery they endure thanks to this Senator they scraped off the pavement in 2006. Missouri is slipping further to the right-hand lane and McCaskill is stuck in the far-left lane. Get a shovel, Missouri. You’ve got to clean the highway before you can get back to work. Consider it done, McCaskill is dead meat.
Jon Tester of Montana
Tester’s 2006 senate victory over Bob Keenan was one of the closet elections that year. The only comparable close vote was Jim Webb’s victory in Virginia. Consider that 2006, like 2008, was a down year for the Republicans. Now consider that the Tea Party waves are crashing smack dab into the Montana Rockies and you have the prescription for a perfect storm with Tester helplessly stuck in his dingy little party without a paddle. This race leans GOP at this time, and the Republication candidate hasn’t even been announced. Tester is in for the fight of his life. It is time he goes back to organic farming and leave politics for the grown-ups.
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Ah, Ben Nelson! You all remember poor old Ben Nelson, don’t you? He of ObamaCare fame! He, who was tossed out of a pizza parlor by a bunch of hungry Nebraska voters sick of what Nelson was selling. Turned out Nelson didn’t have a thick crust. But he sure was full of cheesy comments. Nelson loses. America wins. End of story for 2012.
Bob Menendez of New Jersey
A year ago we wouldn’t have given any Republicans a chance in Hell winning a senatorial race in New Jersey. Well, Hell just froze over and the guy driving the ice truck is named Chris Christie. Don’t count the GOP out in New Jersey in 2012. If the GOP is smart enough to choose a conservative clone of Christie this race is winnable by the Republican Party. However, if the RINOs get their way and one of their own wins the GOP primary, then expect a Democrat victory. My money’s on Christie. He will show strong leadership within his own party and the GOP will follow Christie’s lead. This one leans Republican. I can hardly believe I’m making that claim – but that’s just the way it is. We’ll see if I am right in two years. Cross your fingers, in New Jersey strange things have been known to happen in elections. See Chicago for a history lesson.
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
There always seems to be an outlier in voting patterns. The vast majority of the intermountain west is conservative. New Mexico, however, is the state that gives us Bill Richardson. Bingaman has an excellent shot at winning re-election. But it is too far out to declare him a winner. It will be interesting to see how the Tea Party can affect elections in New Mexico. Anything’s possible!
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Color Conrad a loser – North Dakota is in the midst of a huge GOP landslide in 2010 and it isn’t going to be any different in 2012. Conrad is like that little Dutch boy with his finger in the dike. All he can feel is a little wet spot next to his finger nail, but he knows what’s coming over the wall. It’s been nice knowing you, Kent. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
The purple state of Ohio, like North Dakota, is changing its color. Dems are like, so 2008. Despite liberal strongholds in Cleveland and thereabouts, the GOP is going to win this one going away. See ya, Brown!
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
Can you say Pat Toomey? I knew you could! The state that has rid itself of Arlen Specter and is in the process of ridding itself of Joe Sestak will go to the GOP in 2012. It sucks to be an Obama supporter. Pennsylvania voters have had their fill of socialism. Casey is history. Hope he enjoys his last two years in the Senate because it’s all he’s getting. Peg this one as a win for the GOP.
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
You just have to give this one to the Democrats. That east coast syndrome just sucks up all the voter intelligence on that coast. On the bright side, at least Whitehouse won’t be representing John Kerry’s yacht anymore!
Jim Webb of Virginia
Webb squeaked through to victory in 2006. It’s not going to happen again. The Tea Party will make sure of that. Webb will put up a fight but he’s going down, down, down. Tea Party wins. America wins. This one leans GOP.
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Despite the fact that Patty Murray is fighting for her life in Washington even as I write this analysis, I don’t expect Cantwell to lose in 2012. This one leans to the left. There are simply too many liberals in Washington for sanity to take hold on a permanent basis. Murray is losing because of her demeanor. I mean, have you ever seen her picture. Her countenance shines right on through – and that’s putting it nicely. I’ve got to go with the Democrat on this one.
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
Can you say “Russ Feingold?” Kohl has got to be quaking in his boots. If Feingold can lose in a landslide, and it appears that is precisely what is happening, then Kohl doesn’t have a prayer. Perhaps he can spend the next two years cleaning spirits for Michelle Obama. That should keep his spirits up, but it won’t keep Wisconsin’s voters down. Goodbye Kohl!
Independent Incumbent Elections
Bernie Sanders of Vermont
Unlike Barack Obama, who tries to avoid political labels, Sanders is a self-described democratic socialist – and proud of it. In 2006 Sanders ran as an independent and won 65 percent of the vote. In most other states Sanders wouldn’t stand a chance in 2012. But Vermont marches to the beat of a socialist drummer. Even with the Tea Party on the rise expect Sanders to win in 2012. Some things never change.
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, but claims it is independent – it is still a duck. Lieberman pulled a Murkowski before it was cool. Losing a primary challenge in 2006 Lieberman simply went the write-in route and won re-election. And despite the rejection of the Connecticut voters in the 2006 Democratic Party primary, guess which caucus he affiliates with today in the Senate? Yup, the Democrats…once a duck he’s always a duck. However, from now on elections aren’t always what they were once quacked up to be. In 2012 Lieberman will face the decision of whether to try it again as an independent or to return to the Democratic fold. He’s got to be very careful he doesn’t lay an egg. But he considers himself to be the goose that only lays golden eggs. Don’t count him out…he represents a liberal state that currently is giving Richard Blumenthal the nod despite his proclivity, for, shall we say, sttrreecchhiinngg the truth with the Vietnam question.
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Kyl is one GOP senator the Democrats who just love to oust from office. Why? Because Kyl is the Senate Minority Whip. He is tasked with keeping the GOP herd of unruly elephants in line. But don’t expect Kyl to lose in 2012. He is considered the fourth-most conservative Senator by the National Journal. He takes a strong conservative line on illegal immigration. Considering that the vast majority of Arizonans agree with him, Kyl is a prohibitive favorite to win re-election in 2012.
Richard Lugar of Indiana
Call it right now. Lugar wins in 2012. Anyone who wins 87 percent of the vote in 2006, because no Democrat was foolish enough to challenge him, is worthy of a presumption of victory.
Olympia Snowe of Maine
Snowe is already feeling the heat from the coming Tea Party firestorm. A devout RINO, Snowe knows that she is going to have to tamp it down in the next two years or she will be history. If Snowe continues to vote like a RINO, expect her to face a Primary challenge from within the Maine GOP. A strong Tea Party candidate could drop a Bob Bennett bomb on her if the Snowe Tiger doesn’t change her stripes.
Scott Brown of Massachusetts
Also a RINO, Brown could make it through to another victory in Massachusetts. Even with a conservative thumping of Democrats in 2010, Brown is relatively safe. Brown appears to be popular with the left-leaning voters in Massachusetts. It appears likely that he could peel off enough Democratic voters to retain his seat in 2012. This should continue to be the case if Obama, as expected, continues to govern as a socialist – and socialism will shed jobs in Massachusetts, bringing more voters over to the GOP. It won’t be a cakewalk for Brown in the land of Camelot, but he certainly has a chance to successfully defend his seat by pulling the sword out of the stone and fending off whatever Martha Coakley clone the Democrats will appoint to mount an assault on the sacred Kennedy seat.
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
Color this one a safe seat for the Republicans. Mississippi is strongly conservative and Wicker is a proud standard-bearer for the GOP. He replaced Trent Lott in 2007 when Lott vacated his seat on December 18, 2007. Wicker served out the remainder of Lott’s term in the November 2008 special election against Ronnie Musgrove, winning 55% of the vote. If Wicker was running in 2010 you could safely assume that percentage would have been even higher. Assuming that the conservative movement does nothing but pick up steam during the next two years, Wicker will win in a landslide in 2012.
John Ensign of Nevada
Expect the Democrats to attack Ensign, using a scandalous alleged affair with Cynthia Hampton as their main weapon. Given that Harry Reid and Sharon Angle are running neck and neck in 2010, and the fact that there is a large and established liberal base in Nevada, it is almost a certainty that Ensign is going to have a major fight on his hands in the next cycle. If he is saved, it will because the Tea Party movement goes viral in Nevada – which could happen if Nevada voters cut the cord with Reid.
Bob Corker of Tennessee
A former mayor of Chattanooga, Bob Corker survived a downright dirty in 2006 against Democratic candidate Harold Ford, Jr. The campaign was highlighted by a 30-second commercial run by the Republication National Committee (RNC) which featured shots of a white woman who recalled meeting Ford, who is African-American and was single at the time – at “the Playboy party.” The final shot in the ad showed the woman leering at Ford and inviting him to phone her. In other words, Corker is a fighter. Expect more of the same in 2012. With Tennessee displaying an increased interest in all things conservative, expect Corker to pull through to the finish line at the head of the pack. Bring plenty of bandages – things could get nasty again.
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Three-term senator Hutchison has been fending off charges for years that she is a RINO. Texas is normally a conservative state. Expect Hutchison to have to fend off a challenge from a conservative in the state GOP primary elections. Also expect Hutchison to win the primary election and go on to win the general election. The power of the incumbency in a conservative state should clear the way for Hutchinson, though she will be fending off the dreaded RINO label throughout the campaign season.
Orrin Hatch of Utah
Hatch is already attempting to portray himself as a Tea Party sympathizer. But he is going to have to explain some embarrassing votes, such as his vote to confirm the leftist Cass Sunstein as Regulatory Czar – officially the Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Both Hatch and Bob Bennett, soon to be known as the Bennett formerly known as Senator, voted in favor of Sunstein’s appointment. Hatch is on the hot seat. As a senator from Utah, the most conservative state in the nation, Hatch could very easily lose his party’s nomination at the Utah GOP convention in 2012. However, regardless of whether Hatch wins renomination or not, whoever the GOP candidate is will be the favorite to win the fight to be the next Senator from Utah.
John Barrasso of Wyoming
Wyoming is a GOP stronghold. Expect Barrasso to successfully defend his seat. The Democratic Party is weak in Wyoming and won’t be able to match the money and manpower that Barrasso will bring to the campaign. Decision goes to Barrasso as he knocks out whichever unknown loser the Democrats appoint to fill the fight card.
Unknown Incumbent Elections
New York (Seat currently held by Kristin Gillibrand)
You have got to go with Gillibrand. I mean, in a state that apparently isn’t ashamed of the mockery of justice currently underway with the approximately 400,000 military ballots that somehow never got sent to the troops, there’s no way a Republican can wins. It appears there is simply too much corruption in the election system to allow that to happen. Chalk one up for the Democrats.
Wow, what a fight we have on our hands in 2010! 2012 will be more of the same, a fight to the bitter end. Call this one a toss-up.
The Democrats appear likely to repeat their extensive Senate losses they are headed for in 2010. The Republicans will pick up more seats, guaranteeing a GOP majority in the upper chamber of Congress. The only question is whether they will pull off a miracle and gain a veto-proof majority – thus assuring repeal of Obama’s entire corpus of socialist/communist legislation.
Expect Obama to bypass Congress in general and the Senate in Particular for the next two years. He will attempt to implement even more of his radical agenda through executive orders and agency rules because he will lack the ability to achieve his goals through additional damaging legislation. He will undoubtedly wreak havoc throughout the country for the next two years. But the bright side is that if we can endure him until 2012, the new Republican president can instantly repeal all of his executive orders before the sun goes down on January 20, 2013. Turning off agency orders and czar mandates will take a little longer, but those two will be reversed. It’s easier to countermand Obama’s executive actions than it is to repeal legislation.
If the Republicans can hold all of their current senate seats, they would only need to win about seven seats from the Democrats and Independents to hit the magic number of 66 for that veto-proof senate. By my calculations (admittedly way far out – as in two years far out) the GOP stands a chance in 14 of those races. It is going to be quite interesting in 2012!
Here is just a tidbit to chew on for the Tea Party. The 2014 elections represent one great last opportunity to destroy the Democratic hold on the senate. Why? Because, with 1/3 of the senate up for election every two years, 2014 will be the final election after the Tea Party tidal wave hit America. Expect significant gains in the senate for the GOP in both 2012 and 2014.
The House of Representatives
In two years it will be the Republicans who will have to defend the majority of the seats. However, the good thing for the GOP is that it will be a presidential election year and given the propensity of many people to vote a straight ticket, figure for a lot of Republicans to ride their presidential candidate’s coattails to victory. Obama will still be the major impediment for the congressional Democrats. Expect a repeat of 2010. Chances are good that the 113th Congress is going to look an awful lot like the 112th Congress which will be elected next month. Republicans will hold the House, though their majority may shrink a bit. On the other hand, given Obama’s proclivity for burning bridges, the Republicans could also add to their numbers in 2012. Strangely enough, it appears that Obama will himself decide how big Democrat losses will be in 2012 – it will be 2010 redux.